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In 2023, the financial game and interest competition between China and the United States have reached an unprecedented critical turning point.
However, the vast majority of Chinese do not realize that the emergence of this node is not in foreign trade, exchange rates, and financial markets, but in the field of science and technology:
Without any warning, let alone the new product launch, on August 29, Huawei Mate 60 Pro suddenly went on sale.
Although the listing is low-key, the attention it has attracted is strong. The new Kirin 9000S chip equipped with it gives people unlimited imagination. In a way, the release of the Huawei Mate 60 Pro heralds Huawei's "return".
Regarding the release of Huawei's new mobile phone, the relevant subtle background, timing, and significance, this issue has already had a special article (Raimondo's visit to China and Huawei's new mobile phone: unexpected unexpected surprises, what signals were released?). (Click on the blue text to jump directly to the article) has been analyzed and discussed in detail, so it will not be expanded here.
Over the past week, the entire Huawei Mate 60 series has been snapped up. HUAWEI Mall started full sales again at 10:08 a.m. on September 6, and I clicked to buy online on time, and it only took less than 10 seconds to show that it was sold out. (Let's just say, is there any old iron who has the ability to rush to buy skills to teach it, online, etc., quite urgent).
HUAWEI Mall information shows that the 12GB+512GB version of Huawei Mate 60 costs 5999 yuan, and the 12GB+512GB version of Huawei Mate 60 Pro costs 6999 yuan.
In the Huawei Mall "A Letter to Huawei Users", it is written that the cumulative shipment of Huawei Mate series mobile phones has reached 100 million units since 2013. The Mate 60 Pro, which went on sale in advance, is the world's first mass smartphone that supports satellite calls, and can also make and receive satellite calls without terrestrial network signals. In addition, the phone is also equipped with the second-generation Kunlun glass that is more resistant to falling, as well as Huawei's self-developed Pangu AI large model.
Of course, write the article positioning to be accurate, or say in advance, I am not a technology blogger, I don't understand related technologies and majors, writing this article is based on a series of trends after Huawei's release of a new machine on August 29, combined with the performance of the global financial market, from the perspective of economic logic and interest games, I am ready to talk to you about some of the current Sino-US financial war.
After reading this article, more Chinese compatriots can see more thrilling offensive and defensive essence on the face of the trend through the current market appearance.
More and more signals and trends actually indicate that a new round of financial war between China and the United States has begun.
Pay attention to trends, grasp the essence, see the main line, study and judge trends, and guide actions.
This article has repeatedly checked for compliance, does not touch red lines, and the language is peaceful and fair, without being value-oriented.
The content is evidence-based, and the analysis is rational and objective.
Hardcore content, missed no more.
Gain insight into opportunities, grasp trends, and guide decision-making.
PS：
- The article is slightly longer, the reading of the content requires a certain amount of time and patience, and it requires thinking.
- The content does not seek to please all readers, and writing sharing is also a process of mutual selection between the reading group and the writing group.
- Everyone's cognitive level is different, do not force, the content of this article is not a big road goods, nor is it a cool article that can bring ease and pleasure to mental satisfaction after reading, please look at it rationally in combination with your own needs and cognitive needs.
(If this article is seen on other information platforms, there is no doubt that it is plagiarism and brazen)
Huawei's new MATE60 Image source: Toutiao Gallery
1
Trend observation: From MATE60 PRO to Mate X5: Huawei's new machines were released continuously
This article was written on September 8, 2023, many days after the Huawei Mate60 Pro was born, but its popularity is still unabated.
There has always been a situation of selling at a markup in the mainland, and Huawei has issued a special order to prohibit stores from raising prices. The markup in Hong Kong mobile phone stores in the mainland actually reached more than 2,000 Hong Kong dollars. The United States and Japanese are also very attracted to the Huawei Mate60 Pro. The U.S. price has reached $2,400, or 17,600 yuan, a premium of nearly 10,000 yuan. Japan's premium is also large, with e-commerce selling for 270,000 yen, or 13,445 yuan, nearly doubling the premium.
Image source: Web
Image source: Web
Americans love the Huawei Mate60 Pro because of security, because the CIA can't monitor this phone. The Japanese like it because of the unique satellite communication function.
That's pretty ironic, isn't it?
However, Huawei has heavier products behind. For example, Huawei Mate 60 Pro+, folding screen mobile phones equipped with Huawei's latest chips, etc. There has even been a picture of Huawei Mate 60 Pro+ circulating on the Internet for a long time, and the back shell is a national treasure giant panda shape, which has turned too many netizens.
Image source: Web
The point is that it is not the Huawei Mate60 Pro+ mobile phone itself, but the chip of the mobile phone is the Kirin 9100.
Unexpectedly, on the morning of September 8, 2023, Huawei made another new move:
Huawei officially announced that Huawei Mate60 Pro+ was sold before it was released, and opened pre-orders.
Image source: Web
At the same time, there is Huawei's new generation of folding screen mobile phone Huawei Mate X5.
Image source: Web
Subsequently, Huawei also released Huawei Mate X5 and Huawei Mate60 Pro+ related videos and posters.
Image source: Web
Image source: Web
Image source: Web
Image source: Web
Image source: Web
However, like the Huawei Mate60 Pro that was previously on sale, neither Huawei Mate X5 nor Huawei Mate60 Pro+ mentioned what chip and what kind of process chip is onboarded, let alone the parameters of the chip.
Image source: Web
Image source: Web
It seems that it will depend on the dismantling gods of the world again.
As in the same situation as when Huawei Mate60 Pro went on sale, within 10 seconds, the pre-sale of these two new machines was empty.
Popularity, visible in it.
Huawei's official video and poster revealed some very important news, such as Huawei Mate60 Pro+ can send Beidou satellite text messages and make satellite calls at the same time. The Mate X5 can only send Beidou satellite text messages and does not have a satellite phone function for the time being.
It is worth noting that:
In the early morning of September 13, Apple's iPhone 15 conference will be held, but under the influence of Huawei Mate60 Pro, Huawei Mate60 Pro+, Huawei Mate X5 new machine returned by Huawei's king, there is no such revolutionary technological innovation and breakthrough as Huawei satellite communication iPhone 15, how much more temptation can Chinese consumers be?
This time, can Huawei lead China's mobile phone and electronics consumer market from a brilliant counteroffensive to a greater victory?
It is worth paying attention to, waiting patiently.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
2
The stock price behind a rumor plummeted: Apple and Huawei, there must be a war?
The dimension of science and technology is not much to talk about, just in place, we are laymen, the emotions that should be analyzed and expressed, the previous article is also in place, here, let's talk about a little technology and wonderful trends outside the market.
The hot spots of public opinion at home and abroad are completely different, and there is a news that many people may not notice:
On September 7, Mr. Hu sent a message saying that media reports had asked officials in central agencies not to use iPhones or other foreign-branded devices in their offices.
Image source: see picture
You know, Hu Xijin was the editor-in-chief of the Global Times under the People's Daily.
Whether it is the political status of the People's Daily or the influence of the Global Times in China, let alone Hu Xijin, even its small reporters, it is not difficult to verify this news at all.
Hu Xijin is well versed in "official rules" and has strong political sensitivity.
Not a word was said in vain, Hu Xijin's news, what does it say?
In fact, the news has been quoted or reported by several media outlets. And on social media, there is also a lot of news about the ban on reflections.
In this regard, some media reported that this is the latest measure taken to reduce dependence on foreign technology and strengthen cybersecurity, and it is also introduced in the context of restricting the flow of sensitive information out of China.
According to reports, the move could have a chilling effect on foreign brands in China, including Apple.
Apple dominates the high-end smartphone market in China, one of its largest markets, accounting for about 19% of total revenue.
The news did have a great impact on Apple. The impact of this matter has obviously begun to ferment.
In the past two days, the stock price of Apple's US stock has fallen continuously, and Apple's stock price has fallen by more than 6% in the past two trading days, and its market value has lost nearly $190 billion. And Apple's U.S. supplier shares were also lower, Qualcomm closed down 7.22%, Apple's 5G baseband and other products are using Qualcomm's technology and chips.
In addition, Apple's iPhone 15 conference will be held at 1 a.m. Beijing time on September 13.
Image source: Web
If 1% of people pay attention to Huawei's new mobile phone, 2% of people follow Raimondo's visit to China, then at least 20% of people are concerned about the ban.
As for the US media's hype about banning Apple's mobile phone, it is actually chasing the wind, even if there is such a thing, it can only be done 100% without saying. Is it true that everyone is silent?
Foreign media commented that this is a big turning point for the China-Apple alliance.
Well-known Investing.com in the United States have published an analysis that China accounts for 19% of Apple's revenue, and about 40 million to 50 million are sold in China every year.
Preliminary estimates suggest that Huawei's new phone release in 2024 will reduce Apple's sales by 10 million, and the government ban is likely to reduce Apple's shipments by 15 million to 20 million.
And for every million units sold, Apple's EPS (net profit per share) is one cent less.
Huawei's breakthrough this time not only affected Apple, but also affected the entire US IT industry.
MediaTek is already cutting the number of wafer production in 2024, it is not difficult to calculate, if Huawei sells 50 million 5G mobile phones next year, Qualcomm and MediaTek will have 50 million chip orders, TSMC's foundry orders will also be cut, and various other Bluetooth, WIFI, GPU chips will be fully affected.
The founder of Satori Fund, a well-known fund manager in the United States and a hedge fund, also called for long Apple on August 18, and has now publicly said that he wants to sell Apple positions and plans to short Apple.
Therefore, Huawei's breakthrough is not only a technological breakthrough, but also has financial significance, and to some extent, it can be said that the financial war between China and the United States has officially begun to kick off.
The method of shorting U.S. stocks at low cost has been used by China: let the market release bad news about U.S. weighted stocks, but neither admit nor deny it, putting pressure on U.S. stocks.
Huawei-Apple's expectations and imagination in terms of market share can directly relate to and affect the trend of the US financial market.
In the Chinese market, Huawei once competed with Apple and once surpassed Apple.
According to data released by market research institute IDC China in October 2020, in the first half of 2020, Huawei won the market share of smartphones in the price segment above $600 in China with 44.1%, Apple at 44%, and other brands are far from these two, of which Xiaomi accounts for about 4% of the market share, and OPPO, Samsung and others have a market share of less than 3%.
The market landscape changed in the second half of 2020. Since Huawei was sanctioned in 2019, Huawei mobile phones have been limited in 5G, chips, and production capacity. In April 2021, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business, said at an event that after four rounds of US sanctions, Huawei's mobile phone business of high-frequency, rigid demand, and massive products encountered great difficulties.
The Huawei Mate 50 series, which was supposed to be released in 2021, was eventually postponed for a year to 2022. During this year's gap, Huawei's original market share in China was divided by Apple, OPPO, Xiaomi, vivo and other mobile phone manufacturers.
According to a report released by IDC China in September 2022, under the impact of uncontrollable factors that began in the second half of 2020, the head Android manufacturers were absent, while Apple's share of China's high-end mobile phone market of more than $600 rose all the way until the end of 2021, reaching the highest share in nearly three years of 76.9%.
According to data from market research institute Counterpoint, Apple and Samsung will win more than ninety percent of the global high-end mobile phone market share in 2022, and Huawei will plummet to 3%.
Since 2022, the continuous investment of other head Android manufacturers in high-end flagship models has begun to show its effect, and the competitiveness of products has been continuously improved, and in China's mobile phone market of more than $600, Android's share has begun to rise to 30.5%, but the gap with Apple's 69.5% is still large.
Liu Yushi, a senior analyst at CINNO Research, said in an interview with Zhongxin Jingwei that although China's domestic high-end smartphone market has shown a rapid development trend in recent years, the high-end domestic smartphone brand is facing huge competitive pressure from Apple and the test of weak demand.
According to CINNO Research data, in the first half of 2023, in China's domestic smartphone sales of more than 5,000 yuan, high-end smartphone sales of more than 5,000 yuan accounted for 23%, of which Apple accounted for 75%, and back to 2020, when the United States restricted the upgrade of Huawei and Huawei chips were officially "cut off", this figure was 11%, of which Apple accounted for 48%.
Entering 2023, Huawei began to stir the entire mobile phone market, and from the data point of view, Huawei smartphone sales began to recover.
At present, a battle between Huawei and Apple may be inevitable.
Just half a day after Huawei released the Mate 60 Pro, Apple announced that it will officially release the iPhone 15 series on September 13. Apple officially announced the 2023 fall conference time at this time, and it is difficult not to make people think.
Some market voices said that once Huawei resumes normal supply, in addition to Apple, the former brother glory will bear the brunt.
From the perspective of continuing to be firmly optimistic about the localization trend of the smartphone industry chain: the Apple 15 made in India is still very promising to achieve Apple's "Waterloo achievement" opportunity.
You know, China's most consumer group of civil servants, system editors, and state-owned enterprise employees, superimposed on the impact of association, become the market that Apple is destined to lose, and the remaining purchasing power of the private sector can bring how much expectation and imagination to the highly valued Apple stock?
There should be applause and praise for Huawei. A private enterprise, a domestic brand that stands on the front line of US science and technology sanctions, this time, the country stands together, opening a new round of counterattack from science and technology war to financial war.
I'll see what trolls and keyboard warriors are there, and they want to jump out and perform?
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
3
Learn from history and judge trends: Next, how do you see the economic game and financial war between China and the United States?
In fact, many Chinese people do not know, or do not affect the perception that the United States has already banned the sale of Huawei, and there are many states that prohibit government officials from using Tiktok, not only that, the United States also uses its hegemonic influence and capitalist alliance to call and call on many European countries and regions to continue to exclude Huawei, as well as Chinese overseas enterprises, technology companies, overseas investment, etc... These things are public, and this approach of the United States is completely contrary to the liberal economy it claims, but on the other hand, on China's side, China now dominates global free trade, and it is difficult to act like the United States.
At present, all China's actions against American apples are actually feng shui turns.
If you do fifteen, don't let others do thirty? Why, only the United States can beat people, but it can't fight back and defend itself?
Originally, China and the United States have fallen into a de facto deadlock in trade and technology, of course, China's side is in a weak and defensive side, which must be recognized that it takes an opportunity and a breakthrough point to break such a deadlock.
Therefore, to break the situation, the national dimension, it is impossible to be angry, endurance competition, pay attention to a confidence, before the confidence is not ready, it is normal to hold back.
This time, the "gas fighting machine" was born, starting with Huawei, opening the market first, and Huawei's most direct competitor at the high end is Apple.
Therefore, the above mentioned things for Apple's partial ban, whether true or false, every Chinese should be happy to see it, less nonsense, less emotions, and the overall situation is important.
Of course, this "partial" group consciousness and action must be fine, after all, the iron rice bowl and the Apple mobile phone, there is nothing to compare, right?
Now the smartphone industry chain needs this high-end market, of course, Huawei's product strength is also very powerful, and the confidence is in place.
The essence of this thing, in fact, can be seen from the scientific and technological game between Japan and the United States, and the meaning of historical existence is to tell the world: there is nothing new under the sun, everything is a repeat of yesterday.
There are so many large-scale industries, and it is also the rigid needs of human beings, so the competition of various countries is also around these few, decades ago Japan and the United States around semiconductors and automobiles launched a trade war, which has passed thirty or forty years, in fact, it has not changed, but the protagonist has become the United States and China, and the United States is now focusing on semiconductors, and the automotive aspect is relatively much better.
The US sanctions have caused a lot of losses on China's side, and China has been in a passive defensive state in recent years.
Not only the US sanctions, but also the development of China's advanced mobile phone SoC chips in recent years has not been very smooth, when the scale of HiSilicon sanctions is shrinking day by day.
Unigroup has not achieved an outbreak in the field of advanced mobile SoC processors to fill the gap in the past four years, but has made MediaTek a lot of money.
Counterpoint's report shows that in the global smartphone chip market share in the first quarter of this year,
MediaTek is in first place with a 32% share, Qualcomm is second with a 28% share, Apple is third with a 26% share, UNISOC is fourth with an 8% share, and Samsung is fifth with a 4% share.
UNISOC's 8% share is actually mainly from 4G mobile phone chips (Unigroup has a 14% share in this field), and this market is gradually shrinking, and the real thing to look at is 5G mobile phone chips.
Therefore, the Chinese people are actually holding a breath in their hearts, like this release of Huawei's Mate 60 series, many netizens, including myself, think that the four words "far ahead" are a very happy thing: because this can make us happy, but also an inner emotion to be released and cathartic.
More importantly, the state does things, like a general rushing on the road, not hitting hares. This logic is very critical.
At present, the market expects that next year's shipments of Huawei mobile phones may reach 60 million units, which is connected with the country's financial game demand, as long as the chip volume tube is enough, the market also has enough support, the entire industry chain under the leadership of Huawei, will definitely survive.
However, this is not enough, China's mobile phone market, there are a large number of Qualcomm chips, MediaTek chips, Huawei in the high-end after the force, the chip problem is solved, low-end, but also to be able to follow, then all kinds of chip companies in the United States, TSMC foundry business, Apple's terminal business, in order to experience what is the trend impact, demand collapse.
Then, in the U.S. financial market with technology stocks as the core, and in the core asset field of the United States, which naturally has advantages, China has the opportunity to break through its hegemony.
The birth of Huawei's 5G mobile phone is not only a shot at Apple, but also the official first shot of the financial war, because the US stock market relies on technology stocks, and technology stocks Apple is the boss.
Therefore, Huawei's breakthrough is not only a technological breakthrough, but also has financial significance, and to some extent, it can be said that the financial war between China and the United States has officially begun to kick off.
Multi-dimensional, mixed, composite all-round game, gradually into the best situation, this time China's breakthrough and counterattack, very exciting, but to say that such a sudden can shake the US finance, is not realistic, but always a good start, right?
You know, in the past few rounds of facing US hegemony and sanctions, basically China's side is suffocated and humiliated, this round has come and going, a single point of breakthrough, is it not worth taking a high look?
The logic is this, the essence is not complicated, and then, as the competition in key industrial chains intensifies, the competition between countries will become more fierce and intense.
A country like China is not qualified to admit defeat and surrender.
When you can't beat it, you only consume energy. Before there is a certainty of victory, many things can only be endured.
Good fighters, soldiers who surrender without fighting, to achieve such results, it takes process, patience, endurance, and time.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
Written at the end:
The time is not yet ripe for blind optimism and cheers, and more arduous struggles lie ahead?
At the end of the article, put aside emotions and return to rationality:
Huawei's "return" and the continuous output of a series of new machine combination punches to a certain extent reflect China's domestic supply chain's efforts to increase the rate of self-production in recent years, and some phased results have been achieved in getting rid of dependence on the United States.
In the short term, it may boost the Huawei brand, and also encourage the confidence of the semiconductor investment market that has been hit since the Zheku incident.
Behind Huawei's "return" is the breakthrough development of China's advanced process technology, and the breakthrough in lithography machine, packaging and testing, materials and other technologies behind it, and the gap with overseas advanced technology has been further narrowed.
But to say that this is a celebration of victory, the time is far from ripe and inappropriate:
It has been more than four years since Huawei was included in the Entity List in May 2019, and by 2023, although a lot of progress has been made, it is still not easy to sit back and relax.
In fact, it can be seen from Huawei's performance this time that it did not actively promote 5G, did not actively promote domestic chips, and did not disclose who is manufacturing them, which also somewhat explains the problem, only more than four years of hard work is not enough, to be completely independent, it will take time.
The next step after self-reliance is to lead. Patriotic and enthusiastic support, cooperation in the national dimension, catch-up at the technical level, and finally return to the competition of the market and product dimension for the final showdown.
Huawei and Apple, there will be a war, which has determined the inevitability of this war from the moment the United States sanctioned Huawei.
You want to kill me, can you expect me to be polite to you in the future? Coming and going, it is not polite.
Although Huawei has made a breakthrough at present, there is still too much uncertainty to say that the final confrontation with Apple in the market dimension.
These uncertainties cannot be resolved by emotions. The immediate challenges ahead of Huawei, and the pressure on the country's expectations, are no jokes.
The third phase of the semiconductor fund has a scale of 300 billion yuan, mainly investing in semiconductor localization equipment, and it will take three or five years for China to complete the complete domestic replacement of the entire semiconductor industry chain.
The revolution has not yet succeeded, and comrades still need to work hard. Stage breakthroughs and small victories are not reasons for pride, and there are no conditions for celebration.
China, from the scientific and technological war to the financial war counterattack, may take the return of Huawei's new mobile phone as a node, a new round of the game, just kicked off.
Finally, from the perspective of a patriotic young man who firmly bet on China's optimism about the future of the motherland:
Come on Huawei! Come on China!
The above is a special discussion and in-depth analysis of Sino-US financial games and economic competition based on Huawei's latest trends and some of the latest performances in related fields, and has an exchange and sharing with readers and friends of the headlines.
Image source: Toutiao Gallery
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