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Against the backdrop of the NATO Secretary-General's visit to East Asia to seek support from Japan and South Korea to confront China and Russia, a serious dispute has erupted within NATO, which could be a catalyst for a split within NATO.
On February 5, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was furious, expressing strong dissatisfaction with the behavior of some Western countries and issuing a stern warning. Erdogan's anger stems from a series of recent unfriendly actions by Western countries against Turkey.
However, the trigger for this incident actually stemmed from a group of extreme right-wingers in Sweden who openly burned the Quran and blasphemed Islamic scriptures in front of the Turkish Embassy in Sweden. The move quickly sparked strong anger in Turkey. In response, Turkey decided to suspend the process of joining Finland and Sweden in NATO and announced its withdrawal from NATO accession negotiations with these two countries. Turkey demanded that Sweden impose severe penalties on participants in blasphemy of Islamic scriptures, otherwise it would not agree to the accession of these two countries to NATO.
This move is in line with Turkey's rights as a member of NATO, since under NATO's enlargement mechanism, any new member needs to be agreed by all old members. Therefore, if Turkey does not agree, Finland and Sweden will not be able to smoothly join NATO.
In fact, the application of Finland and Sweden to join NATO caused dissatisfaction in Turkey after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey has always had reservations about this plan, which has become a major obstacle to Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO. To solve this problem, Finland and Sweden had agreed to make concessions to Turkey on the Kurdish issue, promising to extradite Kurdish militants in their territory to Turkey. However, because Finland and Sweden have not fulfilled this commitment, Turkey has not agreed to their NATO membership request, resulting in a stalemate.
The fact that some extreme right-wingers in Sweden openly burned the Quran in retaliation for Turkey's delays, angered Turkey. What is even more surprising is that other NATO members, including Britain, France, the United States and Germany, have taken unfriendly measures against Sweden, temporarily closing their embassy in Turkey and warning their own tourists not to travel to Turkey, all citing the so-called "worsening security threat."
Faced with these measures, Erdogan was outraged and issued a stern warning to Western countries. This follows Turkish Interior Minister Suleiman Soilu's sharp words to the United States, NATO's largest member, on February 3. He accused the U.S. ambassador to Turkey, Jeffrey Flake, of trying to hurt Turkey and asking him to "take his dirty hands off Turkey." This action shows that Turkey is not afraid to confront major NATO members and will not hesitate to voice its dissatisfaction.
For many, however, this deep divide within NATO has puzzled them as to why Western countries such as Britain, France, the United States, and Germany have not sided with Turkey, but have supported Sweden and Finland. But in reality, this divergence is not difficult to understand. Although Turkey is a member of NATO, it has obvious differences from other members in terms of geography, culture, religion and history. Located between the Eurasian continent, Turkey is neither exclusively part of Western societies nor typical Asian countries. This geographical location and cultural identity makes Turkey seem out of place within NATO, a bit like a husky in a wolf pack.
Nevertheless, Turkey, as a member of NATO, has always been seen as part of NATO due to its geopolitical importance. However, under Erdogan's leadership, Turkey began to adopt a more independent policy, trying to play a more important role in regional affairs and maintain closer relations with Russia. This has sparked concern and discontent among other NATO members.
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, other NATO members followed the United States in imposing sanctions on Russia, but Turkey chose to remain neutral and strive to promote Russian-Ukrainian peace talks. In addition, Russia has provided Turkey with important ones
Energy cooperation opportunities, which plan to make Turkey the largest natural gas transit station in Europe, thus bringing huge energy benefits to Turkey. This cooperation has further brought Turkey closer to Russia and given it an important position in the energy market.
More importantly, when there was an attempted military coup in Turkey, the Putin government reached out and supported Erdogan in time. Many officials in the Turkish government believe that the United States played a role behind the coup, which also contributed to the deterioration of relations between Turkey and the United States. Last year, bombings in Turkey's capital also raised suspicions in the Turkish government about the United States.
All these factors have led to tensions between Erdogan's government and the United States. Erdogan has taken de facto control of Turkey, serving as president or prime minister for 20 years. Although he is still eligible for re-election until 2028 under the Turkish constitution, this year is Turkey's general election year, and all forces are actively planning. Erdogan's re-election prospects are uncertain, so this year is destined to be a pivotal moment for Turkey. If the United States decides to act to interfere in Turkey's internal affairs, the situation could become more tense.
For the United States, NATO expansion is an important strategic goal. Whoever tries to block Finland and Sweden from joining NATO, the United States will act. Therefore, in the face of tensions between Turkey and the United States, the United States may seek to influence the situation behind the scenes. The disagreement between Turkey and Sweden may be only a superficial phenomenon, but there may be larger international political forces at work behind it.
And for Erdogan, as long as he remains in power, Sweden and Finland are unlikely to join NATO smoothly, unless the two countries can put forward more attractive terms than Putin.
In general, NATO Secretary General visited Japan and South Korea to try to seek support in East Asia to counter China and Russia, while deep divisions within NATO plunged the entire alliance into turmoil. This is a rare opportunity for China and Russia to take advantage of their differences with NATO to further disintegrate NATO unity. Just as fortresses often collapse from within, NATO's internal divisions could accelerate its path toward demise.
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