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After the Philippines' attempt to supply warships in the South China Sea was blocked by China in August this year, the United States pulled its allies together to intervene in the South China Sea affairs, and the situation in the South China Sea suddenly fell into a tense atmosphere.
(The United States intervenes in South China Sea affairs under the pretext of the conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea)
Although the South China Sea issue between China and the Philippines seems to be a conflict between China and its neighbors, in fact, everyone with discerning eyes knows that the United States did it.
The United States intends to win over China's neighbors to balance China, and China will not sit idly by, and while retaliating against abuses, it is also actively communicating with ASEAN, hoping that they can take a correct position and not let foreign forces intervene.
At the same time as the confrontation between China and the United States, on September 5, two news suddenly came out from Russia, both aimed at strengthening relations between Russia and ASEAN, and on the same day, a Chinese plane also carried Chinese high-level officials to Indonesia.
Russia shot one after another
On September 5, the Russian Satellite News Agency suddenly released news that in 2024, Russia will hold its first economic summit with ASEAN, and the summit venue is set in Laos.
(Russian President Vladimir Putin)
Although Russia, realizing that relations with the West are not stable and secure, began to attach importance to communication and cooperation with Asian partners, in 2016, Putin proposed the idea of Greater Eurasia, including ASEAN as an important partner.
However, from the actual situation, Russia's cooperation with ASEAN is still not close enough.
Especially in the economic aspect, economic cooperation between Russia and ASEAN will basically be completed at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum and the Eastern Economic Forum, and there are no special economic cooperation forums or summits.
Now that Russia is going to hold its first summit with ASEAN, it is undoubtedly a major breakthrough in the relationship between the two sides.
On the same day, the Russian Federal Aviation Administration also announced that the Myanmar International Airlines Yangon-Mandalay-Novosibirsk route has been opened, and the first plane has arrived at Novosibirsk Airport.
This means that after 30 years, Russia and Myanmar have finally resumed navigation.
(Novosibirsk Airport)
Judging from the content of the announcement, the main purpose of the flight opening is still to facilitate commercial exchanges between the two countries.
It is in the interests of both sides that Russia and ASEAN strengthen commercial and trade cooperation.
After all, for Russia, in the event of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the full departure of Western capital, Russia needs new partners to fill the position.
For ASEAN countries, Russia is a fairly large market, and being able to occupy a place in this market is a huge plus for domestic business.
However, in the current international situation, Russia's actions have been interpreted more meaningfully.
Because previously, the United States pulled its ally the Philippines to provoke trouble on the South China Sea issue, while China carried out multi-faceted exchanges and cooperation with other ASEAN countries, intending to sober the Philippines, ASEAN is considered by the outside world to be an important battlefield for Sino-US confrontation.
(Russia vs. NATO)
Russia's strengthening of ties with ASEAN at this time, combined with the fact that the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is essentially a confrontation between Russia and the NATO led by the United States, is considered to be Russia's intention to help China on the South China Sea issue.
Although on the surface, these actions are commercial actions, but Russia clearly has a deep experience in "fighting against the United States".
This time it was a business action, but how could business be completely separated from politics? After deepening commercial cooperation, Russia's influence in ASEAN will definitely expand.
Even after Russia expressed its importance to ASEAN in the form of commercial actions before its influence expanded, ASEAN had to take Russia's position into account when acting.
After all, ASEAN countries have limited national strength, and Russia's strength is also world-famous, and after Russia expresses its unwillingness to let the United States have the final say in ASEAN, ASEAN must consider Russia's position.
(Russia confronts the United States)
Russia alone is not enough to compete with the United States, but if Russia and China are not willing to intervene in the United States, I am afraid that these countries will not dare to offend China and Russia for the sake of the United States.
Chinese special plane directly to Indonesia
While Russia is strengthening ties with ASEAN, China is not idle.
Also on September 5, a Chinese plane flew to Indonesia with a delegation led by the Chinese leader to attend the 26th China-ASEAN (10+1) Leaders' Meeting there.
(China-ASEAN (10+1) Leaders' Meeting)
At the meeting, the Chinese premier reviewed the many achievements of cooperation between the two sides since the leaders proposed to build a closer China-ASEAN community with a shared future in Indonesia in 2013, and put forward four suggestions for future cooperation.
In one of the articles on jointly maintaining regional peace and tranquility, he specifically mentioned the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea".
The Code of Conduct in the South China Sea is a regional rule that aims to regulate the conduct of all parties in the South China Sea, prevent the escalation of disputes, and enhance mutual trust and cooperation.
It does not involve sovereignty and territorial issues, nor is it aimed at any third party, but is a voluntary document reached through friendly consultations between China and ASEAN countries based on common interests and responsibilities and in accordance with the principles of international law.
Since China and ASEAN countries signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in 2002, the two sides have proposed to formulate a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as a long-term goal.
(The 14th China-ASEAN Senior Officials' Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea)
After several rounds of consultations, the two sides finally deliberated and adopted the framework of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea at the 14th China-ASEAN Senior Officials' Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea held in Guiyang in May 2017.
Later, at the 22nd China-ASEAN (10+1) Summit in November 2019, China and ASEAN jointly announced that the first round of review of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea was completed and the second round of review process will be entered.
However, due to the impact of the pandemic, the review work has been postponed several times, so that the guidelines, which were originally scheduled to be officially introduced in 2021, have not yet been published.
However, judging from the statements of relevant countries, an important content of the Code is to strengthen communication and cooperation, eliminate external interference, and peacefully resolve sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea.
In his speech, the prime minister also mentioned China's willingness to support ASEAN countries to play a greater role in the international community.
This is not only in China's interests, but also of great help to ASEAN countries.
With China's help, and Russia's shift to influence in ASEAN to offset U.S. control, ASEAN's future is worth looking forward to.