With the tightening of the frontline of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia has further transferred its already empty South Kuril Islands troops, and in the face of a golden opportunity, is it possible for Japan to take the opportunity to launch an attack?
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict is intense, and although the Russian army maintains a perfect defense line, the situation is not easy. Although last year, Russia basically transferred almost all the troops that could be transferred, and only a small number of troops continued to be deployed in key areas, but now the Russian army seems to be cutting meat and mending sores, and transferring troops from quite critical positions, such as the South Kuril Islands, which are facing Japan. According to Japanese media reports, Japanese personnel based on satellite image analysis provided by American commercial companies believe that Russia is transferring troops and weapons from parts of the South Kuril Islands, Japanese personnel believe that some old tanks and artillery stored here have been transferred, and the most important thing is that the S-300V4 air defense missiles deployed here are also being reorganized.
Specifically, according to the comparison of satellite pictures, the Japanese side found that among the four islands of the South Kuril Islands, in September last year, it was possible to see the deployment of S-300V4 missile units with addresses many times, including radar, transmitting equipment and other system formations. But by the end of August, it was clear that the anti-aircraft missiles had been withdrawn from their original deployment positions. As for where these disappeared anti-aircraft missiles went, the Japanese side made it very clear that these S-400V4 anti-aircraft missiles were likely to be sent to the direction of Ukraine, and the old tanks and artillery that disappeared before may be sent to Ukraine after the factory was refurbished. In short, at least in the direction of the South Kuril Islands, the strength and weapons of the Russian army have been seriously reduced, and the Russian army has unabashedly drawn forces from here.
As early as the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Russian army had to transfer troops from all over the world because of insufficient troops. The units of the 18th machine-gun artillery division stationed in the South Kuril Islands were determined to appear on the Ukrainian battlefield before last fall, which shows that the Russian army had to dangerously reduce its combat strength in other directions in order to cope with the war. For Japan, but from a military point of view, now is the moment of unprecedented weakness of the Russian army in the direction of Japan, the Russian army in the South Kuril Islands has insufficient forces and weapons, and after the reduction, it is impossible to resist the slightly large-scale invasion of the Japanese side. So, in the face of such a "golden opportunity", will the Japanese side really launch a surprise attack? It should be said that the Japanese side will definitely have such thoughts, but thinking and doing are two different things, and the Russian army still has enough deterrent power to force Japan to calm down.
On the one hand, the Russian army in the South Kuril Islands is really not enough to confront Japan, and the Japanese side has little problem just to seize the islands. But on the other hand, Russia's strategic deterrent force is still there, and the Russian strategic bomber fleet, the fighter-bombers of the Aerospace Forces, and even the Northern Fleet and the Pacific Fleet, which have not yet suffered losses, can exert direct strike fire on Japan. Even if the gateway to the South Kuril Islands is wide open, but with these strategic strike firepower of Russia as a hole card, Japan will not dare to make a move against Russia, which is also the confidence that Russia dares to draw troops from the direction facing Japan. For Putin, now is not the time to save face, in order to deal with real military problems, it is a very realistic option for Russia to draw all troops from where they can be deployed.