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Last year's "extraordinarily severe drought" is still vivid in the minds of peasant friends in the south. Now that 2023 has arrived, people are wondering if they will fall into the trap of a mega-drought again.
Looking back on the past days, although the beginning of spring has passed and the spring equinox is approaching, rainfall is still scarce. Clear weather dominates, and the New Year has yet to see a much-needed heavy rain. Even light rain is numbered.
The Qingming Festival is approaching, and the agricultural proverb inherits the wisdom, "Before and after the Qingming Festival, plant melons and beans". However, in the face of drought and dry land, the villagers had to work tirelessly, carrying water from buckets to wet the land and then start planting seeds. This tedious and painstaking way, while overwhelming, has no other option. Missing the planting season will bring irreparable damage.
On the Internet, I consulted some friends from other regions, and their situation was similar to that of my hometown. Rainfall has always been scarce, and even drizzle is rare. Although spring rains are as expensive as oil, they are still less than summer rains. Typically, spring droughts are more likely to occur in northern regions and rarer in the south. However, due to last year's severe drought, many villagers began to worry about whether the same mistakes would be repeated this year.
The old farmers in the village uttered a proverb: "This year is ten oxen ploughing the fields", which means that the year is not optimistic. So, what is the meaning behind this sentence? Let's take a closer look!
2023 is the double spring leap February, and there is a saying: "Ten oxen plow the field, one dragon governs the water". Older generations of farmers fear a repeat of last year's drought this year, not only because of their experience but also because of ancient forecasting methods. This method is based on the Spring Cow Diagram.
The Spring Ox Chart is an ancient book used to predict the weather, rainfall, heaven and earth branches, five elements, and crop harvest of the year. This tradition began in the early Tang Dynasty, flourished in the Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties, and has a history of thousands of years. The main feature of the book is a drawing of a cow and a morning glory, flanked by verses that predict the weather and crops of the year.
Below is the yellow calendar of the year, which is specially marked with the dates of the 24 solar terms. In addition, it also includes daily taboos. In the past, many families would put up the Spring Ox Picture because it not only guided agricultural activities such as sowing, farming, and harvesting, but also blessed the safety of the whole family.
And in the "Spring Cow Diagram" in 2023, the words "ten oxen plow the field, one dragon governs the water" appeared. In the past, cattle were farmers' right-hand men and could easily complete a variety of farm work. Some families cannot afford to raise cattle and will share them with neighbors for rotation. Usually, two cows plow the field together, which is efficient and easier for the cattle. However, this year, there has been a situation of "ten oxen ploughing the field", which means that the land has become difficult to cultivate because rainfall is scarce and the drought is severe, making the land hard and difficult to cultivate.
Last year, the number of cattle cultivated doubled due to drought in many places due to insufficient rainfall, which is one reason why some farmers are worried about a worse drought this year. In addition, according to the saying of "several dragons control water", this year is "one dragon governs water", and the old saying "dragons are more waterlogged, dragons rely less, five dragons and six dragons are smooth in wind and rain", which means that the more dragons, the more likely drought is to occur. The reason for this is that locals are gradually loosening their management of water resources, while five or six dragons signal good weather. Although "one dragon to control water" is not prone to drought, in the spring, there is still little rain.
In summary, the ancient Spring Bull Chart and modern scientific tools show that this year's year is not optimistic. The forecast released by the Yunnan Provincial Water Resources Department said: "In 2023, drought and flood disasters will be more severe than the previous year, and the situation is grim!" In addition, media reports say that this year's precipitation in southwest China is 2-50% less than the same period of the year, and more than 80% less in southern Sichuan and most of Yunnan, coupled with high temperatures, the drought situation is worsening. The National Climate Center's projections also point to the possibility of persistent high temperatures this summer.
And in the future, the average concentrated rainfall period in China will change from once in 50 years to once in 20 years. Extreme drought events will also change from once in 50 years to once in 32 years.
These alarming figures, both ancient farmer experience and modern scientific projections, suggest that this year's climate could have a serious impact on farmers. Faced with this unprecedented challenge, farmers have had to prepare in advance and keep an eye on weather changes to take precautions to reduce losses.
Drought not only affects the growth of crops, but also puts enormous pressure on the lives and livelihoods of rural dwellers. Water scarcity has forced people to fetch water for their land, and families depend mainly on agriculture for their livelihood. Hence this year's dry
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