Japanese military expert Yoshiaki Yano, nicknamed the director of the "Strategic Fooling Bureau," is known for his in-depth military analysis and sharp online rhetoric. Compared with Major General Zhang, Yano Yoshiaki's analysis is more reliable, and many predictions have been confirmed. In 2012, he caught the seeds of the Russian-Ukrainian contradiction early and accurately predicted the possible outbreak of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. His analysis was in-depth and detailed, earning him prestige in Japan. Today, however, I'm going to explore another of Yano's "predictions": the possibility of war between China and Japan, and his unrealistic assertion about U.S. aid.
There are three reasons why Yoshiaki Yano has attracted widespread attention in Japan. First of all, his status as a retired major general gave him a certain degree of professionalism and authority. Japanese culture is introverted, and senior generals rarely speak online, which makes Yoshiaki Yano's military views stand out. Second, he has repeatedly made alarming remarks, such as calling on Japan to acquire nuclear weapons to protect itself. He firmly believes that Japan needs to have a nuclear deterrent in the face of pressure from neighboring nuclear powers, especially the North Korean threat. Finally, his accurate analysis of Russian-Ukrainian relations in 2012 earned him a reputation. He pointed out that Ukraine's continued proximity to NATO could lead to a conflict with Russia, while pro-Russian regions in the east are most likely to be the focus of war. This analysis is very different from General Zhang's view, so it is all the more striking. However, his statement about the possibility of Sino-Japanese war can only be said to be half-right and half-wrong.
His "half-right, half-wrong" rhetoric is that while he asserts that war is likely to break out between China and Japan, he ignores an important factor: geography. Japan's close proximity to China made Japan almost nowhere to flee after the outbreak of war. Although Japan's Self-Defense Forces have a strong navy and air force, combined with the presence of U.S. forces in Japan, they are somewhat capable of countering the naval and air forces of most countries. However, if China and Japan were to fight, the battlefield would likely be over the East China Sea and the Japanese mainland. These two areas are located exactly within the strike range of China's strategic rocket force and air force, giving China a geographical advantage. As things stand, even the United States is unlikely to defeat the PLA off the coast of China, let alone Japan.
However, Yoshiaki Yano's prediction of the timing of the Sino-Japanese War was quite erroneous. Although there have been some contradictions between China and Japan in recent years, and Japan has stepped up its efforts to follow the steps of the United States and participate in activities to contain China, the gap between Chinese and Japanese military and national strength is widening. The development of modern long-range precision strike weapons has made Japan's military provocations lose their convenience. The reason why Japan closely follows the United States is to use the power of the United States to protect its own interests, not to become an unconditional victim between major powers.
Therefore, a Sino-Japanese war is unlikely to break out anytime soon. Even on the Taiwan Strait issue, Japan is more likely to provide logistical support for the US military than to confront China rashly. Behind this is the comprehensive effect of the gap in national strength between China and Japan and geopolitical factors. Although Yano's military analysis ability is accurate, there is still a certain gap compared with China's military masters.
In conclusion, while Yoshiaki Yano's analysis is insightful in some respects, there are significant deviations in the prediction of the Sino-Japanese war. Under the current situation, a military conflict between China and Japan is unlikely to break out before 2025, and factors such as geography and national strength are restricting the actions of both sides. While Yano's ability to "maneuver" is impressive, his analysis still needs to be improved relative to Chinese military experts.