Nuggets public offering mid-season, Changsheng Fund equity investment strategy forward-looking

It's the disclosure season of public funds. Judging from the published report, driven by the recent "package" of policies in the active capital market, fund managers are generally relatively optimistic about the future market. On August 30, 70 open-end funds under Changsheng Fund disclosed their 2023 interim reports. According to statistics from China Daily, as of the end of the second quarter of this year, the non-cargo scale of Changsheng Fund reached 53.824 billion yuan, an increase of 19.28% over the beginning of the year. In terms of active equity, Changsheng Fund has covered multiple lines such as advanced manufacturing, electronic information, and balanced strategies, and is led by high-performing fund managers with deep investment research skills. With the announcement of the report, equity investment generals, including Guo Kun, Wang Ning, Wang Yuanhong, Yang Qiupeng, Dai Yi, Wang Zhifang, etc., also studied and judged the future market trend and investment opportunities.

The economy is stable and good, and low valuations are good for equity investment

Looking back at the first half of the year, the market showed obvious characteristics of the stock game. In the structural differentiation, the TMT industry chain represented by artificial intelligence has become a big winner, and the policy-driven special valuation sector has also performed well. Changsheng Urbanization, managed by Dai Yi under the stock game, adopts the rotation strategy of selected industries, focusing on information creation, data elements, and computing power sectors, and continues to pay attention to digital economy directions such as communications, computers, consumer electronics, games, and individual stocks with excellent performance, with outstanding performance. The yield in the first half of this year was 32.24%, and the excess return also reached 32.24%.

Talking about the economic trend in the second half of the year, Dai Yi pointed out that although the mainland's economic operation will still face many challenges, on the whole, it is a year of restoration of the pattern of stability and improvement. From the perspective of equity assets, the mainland is at the end of "quasi-recession" + the beginning of recovery, which is a relatively friendly stage for the equity market. The market has been running so far, Dai Yi believes that it is still liquidity that determines valuation, and the difference in year-on-year earnings growth rate determines relative strength and weakness.

According to Yang Qiupeng, manager of Changsheng Electronic Information Industry and Changsheng Internet + Fund, the domestic economy is expected to recover weakly in the second half of the year, but it is expected to show structural characteristics, and liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose. Wang Yuanhong, manager of Changsheng Innovation Drive and Changsheng High-end Equipment Fund, also believes that macro policies are relatively stable, adhere to the goal of economic transformation and upgrading, maintain strategic determination, and the growth rate of high-end manufacturing investment is still high. At present, the overall valuation is at a low level, the bottom characteristics are obvious, and in the medium and long term, it may be a better time to invest.

Structure divergence into normality Believe in the power of professionalism and time

Looking forward to the future market, Dai Yi believes that the A-share market will continue to fluctuate under the influence of multiple factors such as internal and external, but the differentiation between sectors will narrow, in addition to the digital economy line, some high-end manufacturing, cycle bottom, stable growth related industries will perform, among which we must actively pay attention to those industries and companies from 0 to 1. In the medium and long term, only leading companies in industry, management and technology that follow the logic of industrial development and conform to the national strategic direction can win.

Guo Kun, deputy general manager of Changsheng Fund, also analyzed the three possible situations in the macroeconomic and equity markets in the later stage of the macro economy and equity market in his reports such as Changsheng Tongsheng Growth Preferred. The first situation may be that the demand side continues to weaken in the first half of the year, then the second half of the year may still continue the theme market, AI has a stronger industrial logic support, will be the biggest theme this year, and the future is expected to be fulfilled in performance. The second situation is that the demand side has improved compared with the first half of the year, but the improvement is limited, and the second half of the year may expand from the thematic market to more growth industries, including high prosperity growth, but also cyclical growth, such as new energy, semiconductors, part of consumption, etc. There is also a possibility that if the demand side picks up more than expected, the market is expected to start a comprehensive upward trend, quickly repair the early cycle, and then continue to relay growth.

In terms of specific industries, Yang Qiupeng believes that there is still greater pressure in the real estate industry, and there are obvious structural characteristics of consumption recovery. In terms of technology, the AI-driven semiconductor industry chain, intelligent automobile industry chain, and robot industry chain are expected to usher in new changes, supply-side AI-related products accelerate iteration, driving demand upward, and the second half of the year portfolio will focus on demand repair after the inflection point of the semiconductor cycle, and the volume of new hardware and new applications driven by AI large models.

Regarding whether the bright AI sector in the first half of the year is sustainable, Wang Yuanhong analyzed that with the rapid development and evolution of the industry, there will be expectations that will continue to falsify or come true, which need to be closely tracked and adjusted in time. The new energy sector needs to be closely tracked, vigilant against the contradiction of oversupply, especially can not simply think that demand will increase rapidly due to price decline, photovoltaic wind power demand price elasticity curve influencing factors include consumption, policy and other additional factors. For the pro-cyclical sector, Wang Yuanhong said frankly that there may be phased opportunities, among which he will focus on some leading companies with significant competitiveness and still some domestic substitution space. But if you look at the long term, the whole cycle plate is not the focus of the layout.

In the context of economic transformation and the possibility of long-term internal and external demand pressure, Wang Yuanhong believes that products and services that can adapt to the needs of the times and meet the actual needs are the best investment direction in this era. Among them, companies with high barriers and moats are particularly favorable. Regarding the "moat", in Wang Yuanhong's view, in addition to common elements such as technology, organizational ability, business model, and capital, the most noteworthy element is the element of "time", "luck always favors those who are prepared", and the reason for preparation is that these lucky people have accumulated a lot of time on the "right and difficult road", and any pursuer needs to spend the same amount of time, or longer, and even wait for the next opportunity to achieve catch-up, which is the strongest moat.

For another star sector other than AI this year, Wang Ning, chief investment officer of Changsheng Fund, also has sober and unique insights. Looking back at the record high of the dividend full return index in May 2023, the Changsheng quantitative dividend strategy managed by Wang Ning maintained a more cautious attitude at that time, "The dividend index contains the market sentiment of Zhongte valuation beta, which is mainly expressed in the dividend index through traditional mainstream industries such as banks, and the valuation increase mainly reflects that the index rise brought about by the growth of dividends and earnings is not the growth of dividends." Recently, the dividend index has returned to a gradual stable state after the elasticity of Zhongte valuation returned to rationality, and Wang Ning made it clear that the future portfolio hopes to increase the upward momentum of the portfolio through a certain degree of flexibility. Adjusting the dividend portfolio further considers that there are many industries and stocks related to the valuation of China Special in the Hong Kong dividend and dividend index, and when the portfolio pays attention to the domestic market, it also pays great attention to the pricing level of the relevant dividend stocks in the Hong Kong market priced by international institutions as a reference for management.

In addition, in view of the investment opportunities in the military industry sector in the high-end manufacturing field, Wang Zhifang, manager of Changsheng Aerospace and Marine Engineering Fund, analyzed that the demand of the military industry is highly certain, the long-term cycle is prosperous, and it extends to new fields. This year is the middle year of the "14th Five-Year Plan", and the medium-term adjustment of the equipment field planning may land in the second half of this year, and demand is expected to recover, bringing performance flexibility to the industrial chain. In the future, it is necessary to continue to track the changes in orders of the military industry segment industry chain and the changes in product delivery prices. In the second half of the year and beyond, the structural differentiation of the market may become the norm, and while carefully selecting sub-sectors, we will continue to conduct in-depth research on the selection of individual stocks, adjust and optimize individual stocks, and more strictly grasp the buying and selling points.