Text: Zhang Yu, Deputy Director and Chief Macro Analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute (License No.: S0360518090001)
Contact: Fu Chunsheng (18482259975)
Core ideas
The Powell Jackson Hole annual meeting speech is a combination of "hard posture" and "soft thinking", with a very "hawkish" beginning and a "soft" ending. The "hard stance" is due to the fact that a premature softening of attitudes may lead to early easing of financial conditions against the backdrop of still high inflation, which is detrimental to the second half of deinflation. The "soft thinking" is because policy risk has shifted from one-way to two-way, and "risk management" and "agile decision-making" are more necessary. In our view, at the margin, core inflation and the job market continue to cool, credit growth tends to stagnate, and the three conditions supporting the Fed to stop raising interest rates have emerged, and the rate hike cycle may be over. After all, instead of using recession to force inflation down, the Fed wants the result of "soft landing + falling inflation".
Report summary
What is Jackson Hole Annual Meeting?
Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, the annual economic policy symposium held annually by the Kansas Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, every August. The reason for its attention is that central bankers of major countries, especially the Fed chairs, have traditionally preferred to announce monetary policy framework adjustments or turning signals in the form of keynote speeches at annual meetings. From a recent perspective, such as Powell, he announced the average inflation target system in 2020, reiterated his temporary inflation view in 2021, and strengthened his determination to fight inflation in 2022; Looking ahead, Yellen showed a shift to rate hikes in 2014; Bernanke's hint at unconventional monetary policy in 2010-12.
What are the key points of Powell's annual meeting speech this year?
Powell delivered a speech on "Inflation: Progress and the Way Forward", featuring the following:
First, starting with a "hard posture" and continuing to convey to the outside world a firm determination to fight inflation belongs to the category of expectation management, and its expression does not actually exceed expectations. Start with a clear attitude: where appropriate, further interest rate hikes will be considered, with the intention of maintaining policy at a restrictive level until it is confident that inflation is continuing to decline towards the target, and the good core inflation data for June and July is only the beginning of confidence-building. In our view, this is only a continuation of the determination to fight inflation, and in fact it does not exceed expectations, after all, similar statements were made in the minutes of the July meeting.
Second, from the perspective of commodity inflation, housing inflation and the trichotomy of non-housing services inflation, the current de-core inflation process is reviewed, mainly objective data analysis, and there is no incremental information.
Third, analyzing the inflation outlook from both economic and labor market perspectives, it is believed that a period of below-trend economic growth and a easing of labor market conditions are needed for inflation to continue to fall back to 2%. The point is to suggest that an economy that exceeds expectations may pose upside risks to inflation. So far this year, economic growth has been higher than expected and also above the long-term trend. Sustained above-trend growth could put inflation in the upside of risks and could lead to further monetary policy tightening. The labor market is gradually normalizing and rebalancing, and monetary policy may need to be tightened if the cooling trend in the labor market stops. Nominal wage growth must eventually slow to a level consistent with 2% inflation.
Fourth, the uncertainty of the inflation outlook is explained from the perspectives of neutral interest rate, monetary policy lag, and supply and demand misalignment, focusing on highlighting the importance of "risk management" and indicating the decision-making idea of "acting cautiously". Uncertainty lies in the fact that the neutral policy rate cannot be accurately estimated, so there is always uncertainty about the accuracy of monetary policy constraints; The time lag in which monetary tightening affects economic activity and inflation cannot be estimated; The misalignment of supply and demand that characterizes the current cycle complicates the uncertain outlook. The above uncertainties require the Fed to better balance the risk of excessive tightening and insufficient tightening, and "agile policymaking" is necessary. The September meeting will proceed carefully, taking stock based on the data as well as prospects and risks to decide whether to tighten monetary policy further, or leave the policy rate unchanged and await further data.
With a combination of hard posture and soft thinking, the rate hike cycle may be over
Throughout the text, Powell's speech was a combination of "hard posture (anti-inflation determination, hawkish expectation management, emphasis on upside risks)" and "soft thinking (two-way policy risk, agile decision-making, careful action)", with a "hawkish" beginning and a "soft" ending. The "hard stance" is reflected in the opening paragraph "if appropriate, interest rate hikes will continue", and in the outlook, it mentions "the upside risk of inflation exceeding expectations in the economy" and "the cessation of the cooling of the labor market may require further tightening". The "soft thinking" is embodied in the emphasis at the end on "better balancing the risks of excessive and insufficient tightening", "agile decision-making", and "caution".
The "hard stance" is due to the fact that in the context of still high inflation, a premature softening of attitudes may lead to early easing of financial conditions, which is not conducive to the second half of de-inflation. The final "soft idea" is because policy risks have shifted from one-way to two-way, and at the margin, core inflation and the job market continue to cool, credit growth tends to stagnate, and three conditions to support the Fed to stop raising interest rates have emerged ("Three signals to stop raising interest rates have appeared", "Reconfirmation of inflation signals for the end of interest rate hikes").
In our view, as long as inflation expectations are stable in the medium to long term, it may be a better option for the Fed to stop raising interest rates and then maintain high interest rates, allowing inflation, employment and credit to continue to cool gradually. Raising interest rates again may not accelerate the pace of core inflation's decline, but will increase the downside risks to the economy, and the rate hike cycle may be over. After all, instead of using recession to force inflation down, the Fed wants the result of "soft landing + falling inflation". For U.S. bond interest rates, it is difficult to grasp the trading game in the short term, but in the medium and long term, U.S. bonds may have entered the optimal allocation range. Our three-factor U.S. Treasury model also shows that there may be a certain overshoot in the current long-end U.S. Treasury rates.
After Powell's speech, the market expected that the probability of a rate hike in November had increased. The federal futures market priced in a 25bp rate hike and no rate hike in September with a probability of 20% and 80%, respectively, compared with 19% and 81% the previous day; The probability of a 25bp rate hike and no rate hike in November is priced at 46.7% and 44.5%, respectively, compared with 42.2% and 50.6% the previous day.
Risk warning: The US economy and inflation situation exceeded expectations.
Report Directory
The body of the report
1. What is the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting? What's the point?
The Jackson Hole Economic Seminar, also known in the market as the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, is the annual economic policy seminar held by the Kansas Fed every August in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, USA, and is one of the oldest central bank meetings in the world. Key participants include: central bank governors, Fed officials, leading economists, financial market participants, academics and the news media to discuss long-term policy issues of common concern. Since 1982, participants have reached 70 countries.
Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is in the spotlight because central bankers of major countries, especially Fed chairs, have traditionally been inclined to announce monetary policy framework adjustments or turning signals in the form of keynote speeches at their annual meetings. From a recent perspective, such as Powell, he announced the average inflation target system in 2020, reiterated his temporary inflation view in 2021, and strengthened his determination to fight inflation in 2022; Looking ahead, Yellen showed a shift to rate hikes in 2014; In 2010-12, Bernanke signaled unconventional monetary policy.
Second, what is the focus of Powell's speech?
On August 25, local time, Powell delivered a speech with the theme of "Inflation: Progress and the Way Forward", continuing the theme of the past three years, and the focus is still on the "inflation" field. The main contents include: first, the opening paragraph indicates a "hard posture" of firmly fighting inflation, but the expression does not exceed expectations; Second, it uses nearly half of the page to review the current de-inflation process, and its expression has no incremental information; The third is to analyze the future inflation situation from the perspective of the economy and labor market, and the focus of this part is to put forward the upside risk of inflation that may be brought about by the economy exceeding expectations; The fourth is to expound the uncertainty of the inflation outlook from the three perspectives of neutral interest rate, monetary policy lag, and supply and demand misalignment, focusing on highlighting the importance of "risk management" and indicating the decision-making idea of "acting cautiously".
First, starting with a "hard posture" and continuing to convey to the outside world a firm determination to fight inflation belongs to the category of expectation management, and its expression does not actually exceed expectations. Powell began with a clear attitude: where appropriate, he would consider raising interest rates further and intended to maintain policy at a restrictive level until he was convinced that inflation was continuing to decline towards the target. The lower core inflation data for June and July is encouraging, but two months of good data are just the beginning of confidence-building. However, in our view, this is only to continue to convey a strong determination to fight inflation, and its statement did not actually exceed expectations, after all, it was stated in the July meeting minutes that "most participants continue to believe that there are significant upside risks to inflation and may require further tightening of monetary policy."
Second, a review of the current de-inflation process, objective data analysis, no incremental information. Still using the perspective of the core inflation trichotomy: Ø Benefiting from monetary policy tightening and supply chain repair, core commodity inflation has fallen sharply, especially durable goods inflation. However, the year-on-year reading is still higher than pre-pandemic levels, and restrictive monetary policy is needed to achieve its return. Ø Housing inflation has peaked and fallen, and looking ahead, if market rental growth stabilizes near pre-pandemic levels, housing inflation should also fall to pre-pandemic levels. Will continue to monitor market rental data closely for signals of rising or falling risk of inflation in housing services. Ø Non-housing services inflation has declined over the past few months, but at a slower pace, because this part of inflation is labor-intensive and less affected by supply chains and interest rates. Non-housing services inflation is critical to restoring price stability, and over time, restrictive monetary policy will help bring aggregate supply and aggregate demand back into a better balance, reducing inflationary pressures in this critical area.
Third, analyzing the inflation outlook from both economic and labor market perspectives, it is believed that a period of below-trend economic growth and a easing of labor market conditions are needed for inflation to continue to fall back to 2%. The point is to suggest that an economy that exceeds expectations may pose upside risks to inflation. Ø Since the beginning of this year, economic growth has been higher than expected and also higher than the long-term trend. Recent consumer spending data has been particularly strong, and the real estate sector is also showing signs of recovery. Sustained above-trend growth could put inflation in the upside of risks and could lead to further monetary policy tightening. The labor market is gradually normalizing and rebalancing, and monetary policy may need to be tightened if the cooling trend in the labor market stops. Job opportunities are still plentiful but declining; Over the past six months, total working hours have remained unchanged and average weekly hours have fallen to the lower end of the pre-pandemic range, reflecting the gradual normalization of the labor market. These developments have eased wage pressures, albeit very slowly. Nominal wage growth must eventually slow to a level consistent with 2% inflation, but even if nominal wage growth slows, real wage growth will grow as inflation falls.
Fourth, the uncertainty of the inflation outlook is explained from the three perspectives of neutral interest rate, monetary policy lag, and supply and demand misalignment, focusing on highlighting the importance of "risk management" and indicating the decision-making idea of "prudent action". Ø The neutral policy rate cannot be accurately estimated. Real interest rates are now positive, well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate. The current policy stance is restrictive, but the level of the neutral interest rate cannot be determined, so there is always uncertainty about the precision of monetary policy constraints. o The time lag in which monetary tightening affects economic activity and inflation cannot be estimated. Ø The misalignment of supply and demand that characterizes this cycle complicates the uncertain outlook. So far, job vacancies have fallen sharply without the unemployment rate rising – a very welcome but historically unusual result; Moreover, there is evidence that inflation is more responsive to labor market tightening than in recent decades (the Phillips curve is steeper). These changes may or may not persist. In the above context, "risk management" is more important, and decision-making needs to be "cautious". The above uncertainties require the Fed to better balance the risks of excessive tightening and insufficient tightening, and if it does too little, it may entrench high inflation, but doing too much will also cause unnecessary harm to the economy. "Agile policymaking" is essential. The September meeting will proceed carefully, taking stock based on headline data as well as prospects and risks to decide whether to tighten monetary policy further, or leave the policy rate unchanged and await further data.
Third, the combination of hard posture and soft thinking, the interest rate hike cycle may be over
Throughout the text, Powell's speech was a combination of "hard posture (anti-inflation determination, hawkish expectation management, emphasis on upside risks)" and "soft thinking (two-way policy risk, agile decision-making, careful action)", with a "hawkish" beginning and a "soft" ending. The trend of U.S. bonds suggests that the market may also understand that the ten-year U.S. Treasury rate rose rapidly by 4.3bp at the beginning of the speech, but then retreated, closing basically unchanged from the previous day.
The "hard stance" is reflected in the opening paragraph "if appropriate, interest rate hikes will continue", and in the outlook, it mentions "the upside risk of inflation exceeding expectations in the economy" and "the cessation of the cooling of the labor market may require further tightening".
The "soft thinking" is embodied in the emphasis at the end on "better balancing the risks of excessive and insufficient tightening", "agile decision-making", and "caution".
The "hard stance" is due to the fact that in the context of still high inflation, a premature softening of attitudes may lead to early easing of financial conditions, which is not conducive to the second half of de-inflation. The final "soft idea" is because policy risks have shifted from one-way to two-way, and at the margin, core inflation and the job market continue to cool, credit growth tends to stagnate, and three conditions to support the Fed to stop raising interest rates have emerged ("Three signals to stop raising interest rates have appeared", "Reconfirmation of inflation signals for the end of interest rate hikes").
In our view, as long as inflation expectations are stable in the medium to long term, it may be a better option for the Fed to stop raising interest rates and then maintain high interest rates, allowing inflation, employment and credit to continue to cool gradually. Raising interest rates again may not accelerate the pace of core inflation's decline, but will increase the downside risks to the economy, and the rate hike cycle may be over. After all, instead of using recession to force inflation down, the Fed wants the result of "soft landing + falling inflation".
For U.S. bond interest rates, it is difficult to grasp the trading game in the short term, but in the medium and long term, U.S. bonds may have entered the optimal allocation range. Our three-factor U.S. Treasury model also suggests that there may be a certain overshoot in the current 10-year U.S. Treasury rate.
After Powell finished his speech, the federal futures market priced in a 25bp rate hike and no rate hike in September with a probability of 20% and 80%, respectively, compared with 19% and 81% the previous day; The probability of a 25bp rate hike and no rate hike in November is 46.7% and 44.5%, respectively, compared with 42.2% and 50.6% the previous day, and the market expects the probability of a rate hike in November to increase.
For details, please refer to the report "[Huachuang Macro] Powell's "Hard Posture" and "Soft Thinking" - Jackson Hole Annual Meeting Speech Review released by Huachuang Securities Research Institute on August 26.
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