Thank you moderator, distinguished friends who participated in this ingenuity forum: I know that everyone is mainly from the business community, it is a great honor to have the opportunity to communicate, I take this occasion to talk about my own understanding of the innovation and development, upgrading and development of such a proposition, the upgrading and development of the manufacturing industry to break through this aspect. I have been engaged in research for many years, and I have the opinion of a scholar, but I am very willing to communicate with you. To tell you the truth, you are touching the pulse of the market, in the front line of entrepreneurship and innovation, I am willing to do close trackers and information researchers in this regard, and I am enthusiastic about the research that can put forward some reference opinions in this regard.
We are now in the overall macro development trend, is not yet completed the downward process. After 2010, China's economy has been going down, for this downward process, the leader called it "L-shaped conversion", figuratively, this English capital letter L this vertical, is a downward process, but it can not be the speed of a drop and then down, must pull out the tail, after this tail pulled out, the new normal from "new" to "constant" - the new is to bid farewell to the stage of high-speed development, and into the stage of high-quality development, often must be in this state of high-speed, It can strive to land on a platform that lasts as long as possible to achieve high-quality development.
This is first of all in line with the common law that China sat in the middle-income economy in 2010 and other economies are similar to other economies - when the base is relatively high, to further pursue sustainable development, it is necessary to resolve the problem of "contradiction accumulation and hidden danger superposition", then it is necessary to sacrifice some speed and pursue high-quality development. This first factor determines the beginning of the stage transition, and 2010 will become the last year of China's rapid economic growth, the entire economic take-off and double-digit growth characteristics can be shown in the return to the light, after that, the speed will drop again and again. But after we adjusted, local and enterprises endured the pain, in the second half of 2015 to the first half of 2018 there were 12 quarters of platform status, in the range of 6.7% to 6.9%, walked 12 quarters, that is, three years, was expected to confirm that the L-type conversion reached the basic will. But the second downside came, the sino-American relationship was at odds, when the United States reached an unprecedented consensus between the government and the opposition that China must be contained. According to Dr. Kissinger, it is impossible for U.S.-China relations to return to the past. We are still in the so-called "trade war" and bring out the science and technology war, diplomatic war and financial war factors in such a game process - of course, after President Biden came to power, the rationality of the United States has increased, and everyone has felt it. This second factor has pushed our economic growth rate downwards to the original bottom line, and by 2019, it was only 6.1%, and in the fourth quarter of that year, it was only a whole number of 6.0%. Then there was the third headwind in 2020, which was the year of the pandemic, when we were able to withstand the impact of the pandemic at a low growth rate of 2.3% that had never been seen in decades – but this growth rate was the only positive growth case in the world's major economies. After the efforts to resume work and production this year, the most critical indicator to look at in the first half of the year is to statistically reduce the performance of 2020 and 2021 to a two-year compound growth rate, which is comparable to the growth rate in 2019, and we reached 5.3% in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, I estimate that the quarterly year-on-year growth rate will continue to decline from 18.3% in the first quarter of this year, but the two-year compound growth rate will go up in the third and fourth quarters, but it is estimated to be less than 6%, which is a basic situation.
In this situation, there are many issues that can be discussed. What we want to focus on today is the process of high-quality development and continued pursuit of sustainable development, how to reflect the high-quality characteristics at the macro level and resolve our structural imbalance, improve the utilization rate of capacity, in the micro aspect, we must make the enterprise really revitalized and alive, which is a problem that can be solved by supporting reform. Leaders say that reform is a "key move" to achieve modernization, and reform is now expressed as "supply-side structural reform". In the middle of our commitment to the research of new supply economics, to be honest, there is an innovative intention in terms of thinking, not to innovate for the sake of innovation, but to summarize the enlightenment that the combination of theory and practice for so many years can give, and is willing to break through the limitations of mainstream economics in the past: whether it is Keynesianism or monetarism, or supply-side school, they all believe that there is no need to pay special attention to discussing structural issues on the supply side. Keynesianism emphasizes state intervention, countercyclical; monetarism emphasizes that the government should not intervene too much, as long as it gives a stable money supply, but their opinions on the demand side are obviously very different, but they all believe that the structural problems of the supply side can be spontaneously optimized by the flow of factors of production, and there is no need for government management departments and scholars to discuss how to optimize the structure. In fact, in the middle of real life, their understanding is only suitable for a very small state of perfect competition.
The practice of the United States, the practice of China, and the practice of various countries have all shown that the scenes of real economic life are generally imperfect competition, and the intervention and intervention of the government is by no means limited to total volume regulation. In the more than two decades since the Asian financial crisis and the world financial crisis have continued, the United States has actually done a lot of things on the supply side, such as the information superhighway that everyone is familiar with. It is the industrial policy of the United States. Under the new situation of the world financial crisis, the oil shale revolution, 3D printers, manufacturing industry returned to the United States, and so on. When Tesla's new energy vehicle development encountered a bottleneck period, Chinese Energy Minister Steven Chu inspected its production line and immediately issued him a $430 million concessional loan to support it to break through the bottleneck period, which is supply management. It is a pity that although the practice of the United States has done a good job, the summary it should give in the theoretical aspect and the sublimation of its understanding have not been reflected. We feel that Chinese scholars do not have to wait, our new supply economics, in this regard, in accordance with the inspiration in refining practice, theory serves the practical thinking, put forward that economics should do more in-depth research on supply management, support government management departments to implement rational supply management, and deal with complex structural problems, thus forming our framework of understanding. The central government has paid special attention to the fact that if We want to further develop high-quality development in China, the main aspect of the contradiction lies in the structural imbalance, and we must overcome this structural imbalance, so the concept of "supply-side structural reform" summed up in the end actually corresponds to such a basic judgment and the innovation of theoretical understanding implied behind the judgment. In terms of specific explanations, a friend asked me: What is the relationship between supply-side structural reform and the reform of the self-revolution of production relations that Deng Xiaoping said in those years? My answer is that I think they are a concept, but the full name now is to carry forward the past and carry forward the past in the deep-water area of reform - the reform is expressed as the full name of three factors, which clearly reflects the highest decision-making level in China at the current stage, and in terms of scientific decision-making and policy optimization, I hope to better reflect the support of the theory of socialist political economy with Chinese characteristics. Speaking of reform, what is it? It is to solve the problem of effective system supply and mark the "supply side" first; what is the first thing to be solved by system supply? It is the problem of optimizing the institutional structure of the reform deep-water area, so the "structure" is marked out. In terms of system, the structure involves the relationship between the system, the mechanism, the government and enterprises, the relationship between the central and local governments, the relationship between the public power system and the citizens, and so on. It is still a structural problem that requires upgrading and development of "the quality and efficiency of the entire supply system", which is the logical relationship contained in the concept of full name. Therefore, the full name of the three elements together is the abbreviation of "reform", but it is very rigorous in expression and academics.
In order to adapt to such a development, we must of course note that supply-side structural reform must be accompanied by various policies. In the past two years, monetary policy has repeatedly emphasized maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity, and fiscal policy is more active.
On the basis of macro policies to promote six stability and six guarantees, we also see that Sino-US relations are still affecting the expectations of the entire market, and it can now be seen more clearly than at the beginning. Although some extreme statements in the United States seem to be to decouple from China, in fact, in general, they cannot be decoupled: there are signs of decoupling in some places; some high-end things, such as chips, have never been hooked, and now chips have become very clear to the United States, that is, to have its advantages in China's card neck. So in some other places, we can look at the two-year time period from the end of 2017 to the end of 2019 (which has covered most of the time after the start of the trade war in the first quarter of 2018), China's trade exports to the United States, the export value is arranged in different industries and categories, and it is how much the blue indicator on the right side of the picture has retreated. The first line is chemical products and financial products (more close to the primary and intermediate product states), only a little more than 0.5% down, then look down, furniture and toys fell the most, that is, 10.5%, other categories, there is a decline of 3 points, there is a decline of 4 points, 5 points, and so on, what does this mean? The exaggeration of decoupling is more of a grim attitude of politicians like Trump towards extreme pressure on China. In fact, China and the United States have already shared an industrial chain, and in the entire global trade, the demand of the United States, when looking for what kind of market to place orders, looking for a lot will still find China, although the trade war is to make the cost of tariffs rise, but compared to compare, many orders still came down to China. Such a large trend is difficult to change in the short and medium term. We look at China's market entry year, how much impact is the global trade share? It is ranked 9th; by 2017, it has clearly been the first place, and it has surpassed the United States, which was originally ranked first in the world, by more than 1/4, and now this is even greater. This trend will not change in the short to medium term. If handled well, the above two trends will continue into the long term. In our business circles, when we consider "looking at the general trend," sino-US relations are of course also in flux, there are many unpleasantnesses, a lot of troubles, and even sometimes feel that people are trembling, but if we look at the longer-term prospects and look at the basic situation, the relations between China and the United States and the Soviet Union in those years are absolutely incomparable.
The United States and the Soviet Union slid into the Cold War because the economic aspects did not seek anything from each other, the conflict of interests was difficult to reconcile, each labeled a doctrine, each leading its own camp, on the one hand called the Warsaw Pact, on the other hand called NATO, without scruples to confront, it seems that it will have to start a war (there is a precedent, the first and second world wars can not be said to go together, and in the end the contradictions cannot be resolved, and the problem can be solved by war), but why can't these two sides fight? Then we must talk about another factor: in the process of the innovative development of human productive forces, we have entered the nuclear age, and the use of nuclear weapons in actual combat has already had the actual manifestation on the tail end of World War II, and this actual performance tells all reasonable people that if nuclear weapons are used in the third world war, it will not be a question of who wins and who loses, but a question of the same end, a problem of human society suffering an unprecedented catastrophe, and it is likely to be destroyed. Then, there was only the Cold War. In the previous round, due to the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Cold War naturally ended, the situation of the Dominance of the United States quickly became diversified, China's total amount quickly approached the United States, and in the current relationship between China and the United States, the United States felt that it was necessary to suppress China, which was a stage evolution. But at the same time of this evolution, China and the United States have already shared an industrial chain, economically you have me and you - Cao Dewang and other Chinese entrepreneurs, in the past few years, "follow the production capacity", to the United States to invest, after the start of the trade war, he also added investment, but also got the United States state and local government warm welcome, the Americans also made a very objective documentary to reflect the social impact of Chinese investment there. The most typical in the United States is Tesla head Musk, this is known as the male god of the entrepreneur, in the situation that everyone feels the sword is tense, he feels that the opportunity has come, flew to China to sign a contract with the mayor of Shanghai, and built the world's largest foreign-invested single factory in Shanghai, which later revealed that the investment equivalent is more than 50 billion yuan, just build such a factory, a little more than a year, the production line continues to produce high-level Tesla new energy vehicles, supplying the global market, It is also supplied to the Chinese market. What do these mean? On both sides of China and the United States, how easy is it to talk about starting a fight and decoupling according to some factors of will? For such a U.S.-China relationship that is obviously different from the U.S.-Soviet relationship in those years, I think our business community should always consider whether it is possible to reverse it. I feel like it will be disrupted, but it can't be reversed. It is precisely in this way that the central authorities have actually given the tone of a big judgment: "The theme of peace and development has not changed." What does this imply? Although sino-US relations have deteriorated, we may still strive to "fight without breaking", and we must do everything possible to prevent slipping into a "quasi-Cold War".
So looking forward, it is mainly a matter of time: the degree of rationality after biden took office in the United States has obviously improved, the latest progress, everyone feels that all of a sudden Meng Wanzhou has been put back, and then the US Secretary of Commerce said that he wants to visit China to talk about business with China, which is a positive sign. From the perspective of time, there is a comparison between the economic growth of China and the United States, in the data processed by scholars, the blue line indicates the GDP level of the United States in 2017, find him to the previous integer mark in 1900, draw a curve of its upward movement, this curve shows that the United States became the world's number one power in the 118 years, its GDP increased by 36 times; then China also took 2017 as the time point to find 1/36 of GDP, found in 1987, Reform and opening up are in the 8th year: relatively speaking, it is also 36 times higher, but the comparison on the timeline is 1:3.9, in other words, Chinese is after embarking on the road of reform and opening up centered on economic construction determined by the party's basic line, we have used a time unit to walk through about 4 time units of time in the United States to reflect the growth, and this momentum is far from over. In the year of the pandemic in 2020, although China only has a positive growth rate of 2.3%, but how much is the United States? It is a negative 3.5% performance, then the total distance between China and the United States is further narrowed, in the past we can catch up with it every year three points, four points, but in 2020, we catch up with almost 6 points, further narrowing the difference with the number one power in total. This trend is not over, as long as we Chinese ourselves do not make low-level mistakes, time is China's best friend on the way uphill.
In this context, China's upgrading and development will speak of our business community. The manufacturing industry has now received unprecedented attention, and the Party Central Committee has repeatedly emphasized the need to support the upgrading and development of the real economy, and the most representative of the real economy is the manufacturing industry. In the middle of the development of China's manufacturing industry in previous years, due to the liberation of productive forces, the use of some external resources to trigger the original accumulation of China's locality, the extraordinary growth has been achieved, the economy has taken off, and then all the way to the "world factory", the scale of manufacturing is now the world's first. But to tell the truth, China's manufacturing industry is "big but not strong", this matter I think to be straightforward. Although some scholars once said that "it is great", we in China in terms of comprehensive national strength, manufacturing level, scientific and technological innovation capabilities, etc., respectively, with 1.23:1, 1.22:1, etc., but I think that belongs to the faint words, the most authoritative information, we look at the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Minister Miao (he has now retired to the National People's Congress as the director of the Financial and Economic Committee), repeatedly stressed in office, China takes a series of data to judge, is its own manufacturing level, not only has not been able to approach the first camp represented by the United States, It is also obviously not comparable to the second camp of Japan, Europe, and Israel. We are catching up in the third camp, which is a realistic understanding. In a few of our fields, we now have the ability to rush to the forefront of the world market to participate in bidding, such as the level of high-speed rail, bidding on 300 km /h speed projects, we do have a certain strength, but in a large number of other fields, we are not yet ok, we are medium level, mainly producing road goods - now to the middle level, it is not easy to come by, but overall, in the concept of manufacturing level, we are "more than the upper than the lower".
Therefore, we are talking about it now, we must further carry forward the spirit of professionalism and craftsmanship, and strive to upgrade our manufacturing level from the current state and push up. This upward makes China's manufacturing industry large and strong, in fact, related to the fate of China's modernization. Everyone can understand: in the middle of global competition, our manufacturing industry, as the most important and representative part of the real economy, is that there is suppression and there is a pursuit of soldiers - the suppression on the top is very clear, the Americans take chips, aero engines, and so on, these things are dead cards china, absolutely will not give you, he will not sell to you at a sky-high price, and at the same time he also pulls his allies to curb China together. In recent years, it has been clearly seen that since the Pearl River Delta, China's comparative advantage of low labor force has been rapidly lost, and what has emerged is the shortage of migrant workers, the difficulty of recruiting workers, and the high cost of labor, so we have to "change cages for birds", what does it mean to change cages? The production capacity of road goods should naturally flow to Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh and other places; what should be changed for birds? You have to change the high-end production capacity characteristics, it must be attached to the high-tech factors, can offset the labor costs after the cost of labor becomes more expensive, there is a higher level of added value than in the past, this is China's way out! It is inevitable to change the cage, and if you can't change the bird, it is a test. The pressure of "chasing soldiers under suppression and chasing soldiers" that began in the Pearl River Delta has now become widespread in other growth-level regions in China. We have heard more and more about foreign investment in recent times, and more and more decisions have been made to move outside. Some of them moved from the south to the north first, such as Foxconn's large foundry that produces Apple products, from the edge of Shenzhen to the edge of Zhengzhou, and then he is likely to have to think about where to move again - this trend is becoming clearer.
Then in this case, the upgrading and development of China's manufacturing industry, if it can not be achieved as desired, we will be sandwiched in the middle, contained above, and chased behind! Although we still have a gap from the top, more than the bottom, reflecting that in the middle of the actual production in the world, we still have a considerable market share, but if we can not go up to upgrade, the two sides are getting tighter and tighter, our market share will shrink, shrink to a certain extent, we can not talk about what is the transformation from a big manufacturing country to a strong country in this regard, it will be sandwiched in the middle, it will become more and more passive, this is a warning that has to be put forward. Some experts say that we get rid of this bad state that may be sandwiched in the middle, there is a time window of about 5 years, that is, the fourteenth five-year period, if we add two or three years in the future, if we can not really effectively achieve the upward breakthrough and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, we will be sandwiched in the middle, then the central government's "new two-step" modernization strategic goal may be in vain - this matter we may wish to talk about a little heavier internally.
In this context, I would like to talk to you about how I understand the development of manufacturing from big to strong. I think we should cherish the large number of market players that have been formed in China, of which small and medium-sized enterprises are the vast majority, and these enterprises are basically private enterprises, and they already have a "five-six-seven-eight-nine" identification of more than "half of the country" in the overall weight. At the central level a few years ago, people like Vice Premier Liu He and others said bluntly that private enterprises contributed more than 50% of the entire tax revenue, more than 60% of the total gdp of the economy, more than 70% of the scientific and technological innovation achievements expressed in patents, more than 80% of the total employment, and more than 90% of the total number of enterprises and new jobs. Having said that for so many years, some time ago, you may have felt that due to the impact of some ideological trends, some signals are more disordered, and the market people are panicked, Vice Premier Liu He has an authoritative opinion on behalf of the central authorities, reiterating his unwavering support for the development of private enterprises, which will not change now and will not change in the future. This is to continue to reassure private enterprises. And I said that the basic pattern in this regard is actually more than five six seven eight nine, I feel very deeply in Zhejiang: in Wenzhou, in Taizhou this side of the secretary and mayor said, where we are here is still five six seven eight nine, we are here is "99999", 5 9, this is Zhejiang in the process of reform and opening up, from the so-called "vigorous development of the county economy" out of the private economy as the basic support of the basic pattern of the economic pattern. And to tell the truth, some scholars have said that for new jobs (Premier Li Keqiang believes that the most important indicator of supporting the overall situation and stabilizing the overall situation) at the two sessions every year), the contribution of private enterprises has actually been more than 90%, what concept? It is said that the contribution of private enterprises may be 100% or even more than 100% - this is to say that although the current state-owned enterprises have its relative advantages, the basic trend of the development of state-owned enterprises is very clear, it is capital-intensive, and it is necessary to dock with the automated production lines and artificial intelligence that are now more and more widely used, so in terms of employment, there may not only be no new additions, but also shrinkage. The part of the reduction in employment in state-owned enterprises must rely on a large number of private small and micro enterprises to form new employment opportunities to supplement it, and even fill in this part of the employment of state-owned enterprises that have shrunk, so that we can achieve the goal of a stable overall situation of 11 million to 12 million new jobs in cities and towns that we must guarantee every year. This makes us discuss the upgrading of the manufacturing industry now, and at the same time, we must note that a large number of manufacturing industries in China must not ignore the development of private enterprises in the development of small and medium-sized enterprises in terms of industrial clusters.
In such a context, I would like to say more: In recent times, the management department has particularly emphasized that although there are very few large enterprises in private enterprises, the e-commerce platform has such a large enterprise that rushes to the head, there are only a dozen, and the large-scale enterprises in the manufacturing industry that are loud in private enterprises are even fewer - however, many small and medium-sized enterprises in private enterprises are more and more likely to develop into specialized new small giants, which have a saying in the world, called "hidden champions". That is, in the subdivided industry, the company has not done much, and the popularity may not be so high, but compared with some of its related indicators, it may be the champion in the subdivision industry, but it is the "invisible" that is not outside the reputation. Later, it was found that many of the hidden champions of Germany and Japan came from these small and medium-sized enterprises. I have also seen a material: Japan has a fairly small enterprise, may say one or two hundred employees, that's all, but it produces a thing unique in the world, its bolts (a screw a nut twisted together called bolts, I used to get the opportunity to take the college entrance examination, used to be in Beijing Mentougou Mining Bureau mechanical power plant for 5 years as an assembly fitter, I have to deal with this thing every day), it is a very key point, is to prevent loosening due to various reasons after screwing, Once loosened, there may be a big accident - at that time we used all day long called spring pads, flat pads do not work, to add a spring pad screwed on, it can be frozen there, to prevent loosening, but still can not do particularly reliable. The news from Japan is that the nut produced by this factory goes against the common sense of ordinary people, the nut is processed, the center and the periphery inside are not concentric circles, it is biased - he said this principle I can not say too specific, it is said that because it is biased, the processing process must have a know-how, the international community has long said that this is called know-how. With the know-how, with this design, it is confirmed that it is the most secure fastener, and once screwed in place, it is not loose. The so-called hidden know-how information and drawings of this enterprise are released to the whole society, but they say that you look at my drawings are useless, you don't know how to process, you are better than me, I can process in batches, so I have market share and global competitiveness. So, this hidden champion is here, and this is an example that impressed me a lot.
Germany and Japan, of course, have a tradition of "craftsmanship" in the past, and it is easy to understand why they can produce such a company. And to tell the truth, the mentality of the people's side is not the same as Chinese, I have specifically followed the leadership of our Ministry of Education to inspect the vocational education in Germany, Italy and other European countries, unlike Chinese think that those who enter the vocational education system for training are the losers of the college entrance examination, the children themselves can not afford to be spirited, the parents are also discouraged, where is this state? A lot of people, the mentality of everyone in society, is that I especially like to do something, corresponding to the vocational education system, after I go in, if you are interested in changing the choice, it doesn't matter, until you read a master's degree, you can switch at any time - this is called an overpass. For example, after learning the undergraduate level of vocational education (the ceiling in the so-called vocational education series in China), his interest has changed, he can transfer to the research path to read master's and doctoral degrees, if not transferred, in the series of vocational education, after some efforts, he can also obtain a master's degree. Only the Doctor is a specially listed level, and the overpass cannot be turned directly. China is now working on this, but to be honest, there is still a clear gap. The mentality of society, look at the parents who say that "children cannot lose at the starting line", the idea behind them is that no one thinks that children have much future after entering the vocational education system, and even thinks that this is something that cannot be said and humiliated - this is where China needs to make changes in the future. The fine and excellent new "little giants" and "hidden champions" cultivated by this craftsman spirit have now received very clear attention from the management department, and we must give more policy support and intentional cultivation in our future work.
Further down, I sketched my own understanding of the path of independent investment in the development of enterprises as a researcher: I think that as an enterprise, investment and financing are generally the starting link, the establishment of legal persons, the acquisition of funds for investment and financing, and the search for a stronger and bigger approach, which is nothing more than to go from three paths:
The first is to support entrepreneurship and expand reproduction with the accumulation of capital with its own capital. What are the most typical examples of this? It is the "old dry mother" that we all know over the years. This old lady began to do a little fight, small workshop style of chili sauce, the result is very good reputation, more and more prosperous, has been developed to a considerable scale, but she resolutely not listed, but also resolutely do not want loans, her condition is that these from various places of the purchase of merchants, here in line to pick up goods, must complete the payment of funds, pay money to take goods away, cash flow is getting bigger and bigger, so the expansion of reproduction is relatively smooth, has become a famous brand that can be seen in European and American supermarkets. However, the replicability of this situation is relatively low, and it is difficult for ordinary companies to learn her trick.
Then it depends on the second way: it is necessary to have your own capital, which is necessary, plus indirect financing, which is generally a bank loan. This indirect financing has also been challenged over the years, criticized as a "pawnshop mentality" – companies must have collateral, and people without collateral will not lend to you. Banks "in the business of business", it is easy to understand why this method is adopted, because the management authorities have long said "loan responsibility for lifelong recourse", the risk control link to sign, once found out of bad debts, the signatory as long as the person is still alive, can not run, just pursue your responsibility, people of course be cautious. So what's the safest thing? You take the collateral, I dare to sign this word, it becomes the pawnshop thinking - this is also the outdated thinking that Ma Yun attacked: you do not have big data to support the control of risk, and there is a certain reason for being attacked. However, due to a combination of various reasons, Ma Yun suddenly had a setback in the previous period of time, and if we don't talk about it today. But in any case, capital plus indirect financing may be suitable for more enterprises, and everyone will encounter this problem. Indirect financing has its necessity, but it also has its limitations. When a truly creative entrepreneur encounters indirect financing, often his strengths cannot be played, and he has to repeatedly pull the relationship with the bank, and try his best to find relatives and friends to find various channels to make up his collateral. True entrepreneurs, as a scarce resource, often have a special contribution to the kind of innovation in which inspiration, understanding, boldness, etc., are not reflected in how to obtain bank loans. Many entrepreneurs should get financing support, if they rely on indirect financing to find, he is very difficult.
Then there is a third article, direct financing. Public listing, of course, has a certain training period, etc., the requirements are more stringent; there are also unlisted private placements, private exchanges in the form of roadshows, and then seek some possible financial owners willing to invest. Especially in the field of innovation, people call venture capital, venture capital, angel investment, they do this. At this time, I mentioned earlier that particularly creative entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs with a relatively strong spirit of innovation can see whether he can use his own creativity to move those financial owners and these angel investment decision-makers. If the funds are invested, it may make his wishes begin to be realized, to try to break through, to cross this threshold, it may also soar to the sky. Although the success rate is very low, in this process, it is obviously different from indirect financing and has received financial support from another channel - direct financing support. It is more conducive to carrying forward the valuable entrepreneurial spirit of trial and error and innovation. In the financial markets of the United States, 80% of the funds are directly financed, how much is China? In turn, only 20%. 80% rely on indirect financing, which is our shortcoming, which is a major problem that financial reform should solve by diversification. Basically, there are three basic ways to raise funds.
With the support of investment and financing, I would like to talk about the grasp of investment opportunities. Entrepreneurs' market perception is definitely better than mine, I can only make a summary from the perspective of researchers, I think I can say two things concisely: no matter what kind of investment and financing, to start a business and innovate, the first one, is the final output - products or services, to "meet the needs of the crowd", this is Dr. Sun Yat-sen's original words, very simple truth, that is, you want to form a product and service that can make members of society look at it, their eyes light up, and they are happy to use their purchasing power to buy with the ability to pay. to suit their needs. In this regard, there is an old "Say's law" in economics, that is, supply can create demand, and many enterprises that are the main body of production and operation on the supply side, the form of supply given is unimaginable to the demand side, but after you take it out, it can touch them - the most typical is the creativity of Jobs, which is recognized by everyone in smart phones. At the beginning, after the Apple mobile phone came out, almost everyone loved it, and recently there was the latest model, is it called iPhone 13? Another rush. When I first touched the Apple phone, I had the feeling of being touched, and some of them I couldn't understand and couldn't understand: the Apple phone was so simple, it was all touch to solve? I can also understand this - the button is easy to age, easy to go wrong, and touch a little water is easy to go in from the gap of the button, etc., become the touch is very simple, and in the simple case, it is said that after Jobs had a sample, he took this thing around rubbing, rubbing, such as rubbing on the hair, see if it is clipping hair, etc., he wants to make the user get the best experience, these I can understand, but I could not understand at the time, is how Apple mobile phone can not change the battery? How many rounds of mobile phones have I used before this, Nokia, Ericsson... All can be replaced batteries, when used, there is a spare battery, how convenient it is to change a piece immediately after the electricity is used up, but Apple is not, but the market accepts. I later looked back, and there was a little speculation that maybe Jobs felt that my product had so many advantages, and in this regard I could come to a famous place about batteries, so that people had to buy all kinds of add-on products - so we now see chargers that are specially matched with the iPhone, a variety of add-ons, and these things are out, which is its value-added means. To explain with such an example, anyway, it is used to illustrate: the supply formed by good ideas can explore the potential of demand, and supply can create demand in this sense, such a principle is called suitable for the needs of the crowd. The second principle behind me, I think, is that "opportunity favors those who are prepared", which is an old saying, and everyone knows it.
If we grasp these two principles, we go to entrepreneurship and innovation, so that the real economy, especially the manufacturing industry, can be upgraded and developed, is it necessary to distinguish between three categories: one is to conform to the national policy tilt of such categories, such as strategic emerging industries - the National Development and Reform Commission how many years ago after special research, listed 7 major items, such as new energy in the calculation of a class, there is a class called new energy vehicles, each is a concept. Each of these listed items can be defined by technical indicators. The green economy and green and low-carbon development projects that have been particularly emphasized in recent years are also a type of special policy support that needs to be given in strategic emerging industries. Entrepreneurship and innovation in such investment projects, once the enterprise has a clear positioning in this regard, my suggestion is that entrepreneurs, friends, you should fully communicate with the local government management department of your own investment and landing projects, take your own comparative advantages in strategic emerging industries, relevant supporting materials, and actively report to these management links, so that they can confirm that after that, give the due preferential support policy. This is what the state intends to contain, and it should be fought for with courage. In the past, I have studied fiscal and taxation policies in the financial sector for many years, which is nothing more than to have differential treatment, and structural optimization must support these innovative priorities through differentiated treatment of policies. So this is a category, there is a background of policy support, it should be actively fought for. But entrepreneurs and friends must also be mentally prepared, in our bureaucratic system, often look at the white paper and black words to say very well, do it is particularly troublesome, will pick your faults, often in fact, some officials say that you have to mean, you do not mean, do not dot, the key place you may not be able to get by. This is the reality in Chinese society. However, if we ourselves are very confident, then we should strive for policy implementation, and we must know that when the management department summarizes the work every year, it must also summarize how these policies are implemented, this is his political achievement, or there is a chance to get the policy to be implemented.
Another category, I call it Silicon Valley-style cutting-edge entrepreneurial innovation in the investment activities, the most typical, is that in recent years we all know the digital economy development of the Internet +, China's earliest investment innovation in this field I have an impression: in the 90s of the last century, just the Internet did not last long, Beijing Princess Tomb roundabout office building I saw there are private enterprises (at that time I have a clear impression, called Yinghaiwei) rented a large number of workstations to do Internet + innovation. Of course, the success rate of this kind of thing is relatively low, Yinghaiwei this enterprise is now almost unknown, people in the general society do not know, but to the Yabuli Entrepreneur Forum, everyone is respectful to the head of Yinghaiwei (is a lady), she is the person who dared to "eat crabs first", she was at the forefront of entrepreneurship and innovation at that time, inspiring many people. The basic model of this kind of investment is to learn from Silicon Valley, this kind of entrepreneurial innovation Internet + activities, the main source of funds can not rely on policy support, to rely on venture capital, venture capital, angel investment - this is the experience of Silicon Valley, the government can give the most relaxed tax incentives, fair competition, etc. such an institutional environment supply, and the government can also provide some relevant information by some departments to help enterprises judge what they should do in this regard. Later, in Europe and China, absorbing and learning from the experience of Silicon Valley, a concept was proposed, that is, the government can also add more efforts to run an industry guidance fund. How to play a better role in this kind of industry guidance fund, still groping, the fund of funds themselves can not be directly on the battlefield, is the government to give funds after the investment, to through a series of financial aspects of the mechanism to set, pull the government extracorporeal funds to join the formation of a group of sub-funds, the investment team of each sub-fund to comply with the country's industrial policy, technical and economic policies, when making specific project decisions can be matched with the parent funds to help it some measures, they call it priority, inferior, the fund of funds in the sub-fund to hold shares, can not require dividends, But the requirement of a veto, and so on, is still being tested at various places. But the second type of the main source of support is still to find venture capital, venture capital, angel investment.
This also means that failure, we investors will never be like the past said "capitalists want to jump off the building", not the same thing, when the venture capital, venture capital money has no follow-up support, you have to consider how to find another project entry point, can you revitalize, is such a relationship. In real life, the very key support for Ali is from the Korean Japanese Sun Zhengyi, talking for dozens of minutes, he made a decision to give Ma Yun 20 million US dollars of angel investment, after the success of a soaring sky, not long after the report, Sun Zhengyi This investment formed a total wealth of nearly 60 billion US dollars, quickly broke out nearly 3,000 times, very successful. But venture capital, venture capital, and angel investment also have to take huge risks themselves. Son Zhengyi also went to India to carry out a project, and as a result, there was no profit, and he had to sell Ali's high-quality shares to fill the holes there, which was at his own risk. We entrepreneurs, in the second category, must have the ability to persuade these financiers to be willing to invest in you.
The third category, general competitive areas. Here, we must also innovate and upgrade and develop. I have encountered a lot of enterprises are asking (especially private enterprises, for more than 100 million small and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, a large number of them are in the field of general competition, belonging to traditional industries), they said that I myself do not have any strategic emerging industry components and special competitive advantages, I can not say what Internet +, what kind of upgrading and development opportunities do I have, what investment opportunities? I think there is also the same, The growth of China's economy is quite impressive, the central government said that we are still the world's largest development economy, but it can be considered that the current industrialization is actually in the whole of China, from the middle to the middle and late stages, only some parts of the coast are the characteristics of the late stage, the coastal depressions and the vast central and western regions, in the middle stage, and even some places are in the early stage. Taken together, what does it mean that industrialization is shifting from mid-to-mid to mid-to-late and late stages? On the one hand, we do have our own shortcomings, the entire manufacturing industry, the front said large but not strong, on the other hand, the space behind is quite considerable, this space is linked to what I said earlier "growth", this growth embodiment of the process, must be accompanied by urbanization continues to improve the level. China's real urbanization can not look at the urbanization rate of the permanent population, to look at the urbanization rate of the household registration population that does not carry water in front, it is only 44% now, of the 1.4 billion Chinese people, there are still more than half of them who have not obtained urban hukou, in the next few decades, there will be hundreds of millions of people from rural areas to the city, to make them more convenient to become citizens, which requires a large number of expansion of built-up areas, urban-rural integration of construction projects pushed outward, construction projects in new urban new areas, round after round of infrastructure construction and infrastructure upgrading, Round after round of industrial interaction, industrial upgrading, industrial transformation, and round after round of human capital cultivation will continue to release demand and demand supply. The traditional industry here, we say "suitable for the needs of the crowd", is to see what the elderly need, what children need, what men need, what women need, if you look for opportunities, this opportunity is almost everywhere. For example, the industry related to the elderly - pension, in this regard to find their own entry point, the future is at least the middle and upper class development, do a particularly good job, will make rapid progress. Made a certain scale, like Taikang, has laid out more than a dozen gardens in the country, in a high-speed progress, you say he has what high technology? No, it is to have their own management experience and management team. What kind of internet + do you say it has? It wants to use the Internet +, but it is definitely not a Silicon Valley-style Internet +, not a kind of e-commerce platform enterprise, it is in the field of traditional corporate behavior, found its own special world. The elderly, children, men, and women, each corresponding to a special effective supply, all have articles to do.
In addition, the four words of "food, clothing, shelter and transportation" are also very worthy of our attention. Some things are indispensable to everyone, just like the catering industry, "the people take food as the sky", there will always be opportunities. In the past, I felt that the main body of the catering industry, if you have a unique meal taste to get the affirmation of users, attract repeat customers, you stand; if you have the ability to get paved noodles in that kind of transportation hub such as the airport, the central railway station, do not return customers also stand. What other opportunities are there? I see that there is such an opportunity: China has so many and more new parks, what development zones, bonded zones, logistics center parks, comprehensive development zones, these areas are settled in so many companies, manufacturers, how many will also run their own staff canteens? Need to bid, find the outside supply of the main body, which gives the catering industry an opportunity, if they form a competitiveness, participate in the successful bidding, the market size is expanding, follow the entire trend, you can upgrade and develop. From the perspective of traditional industries, there will always be many opportunities in the process of realizing China's growth.
In general, I think that if such a development converges into a comprehensive trend, China's manufacturing industry is large and strong, and it can correspond to a "smile curve" to understand. Facing globalization on the horizontal axis, the supply chain and value chain of the "global village" and various production capacities need to have the success of creative innovation from the beginning, form a brand, and then process and produce according to such a program, and then dock with the brand marketing, after-sales service and market expansion in the market - this is the supply chain from left to right that the horizontal axis shows.
In addition, the vertical axis, corresponding to the different positions of the horizontal axis, the rate of return has changed: the success of creative innovation, the rate of return is relatively high, to the processing and production, the general rate of return will be low, to the back of brand marketing, after-sales service, value-added expansion, the rate of return is relatively high. More typically, the aforementioned Apple mobile phone is to innovate and start a business to establish brand success, and to achieve excess profits - as long as no other competitors surpass him for a period of time, its excess profits are only from thick to thin, and there can be high returns in this regard. Then processing and production, to have a large scale, I went to see the factory area next to Zhengzhou, in the previous few years, during the peak period of orders, there were more than 300,000 people in that factory area "continuous shaft rotation", in three shifts continuously on the production line to produce apple products. After zhengzhou local, as well as Foxconn, what did you get? They each got their share: the local government was pleased to see a chunk of more jobs; low-end workers had wages and attracted so-called "migrant workers" from elsewhere in Zhengzhou, which had a fairly large area of radiation, to get jobs there; the government had its own taxes, a very decent GDP, and Foxconn had its own income. But taken together, the overall return is at a relatively low level. Then to the back, Apple faces the global brand marketing, after-sales service (the front mentioned the charger and other various kinds of small famous halls, many young people seem to like it too much), the accessories sold, small pendants, etc., together, people are high-yielding. Such a curve, because it is two ends high and low in the middle, like the shape of the mouth when people smile, so it is called a smile curve.
In china, the world's factory provides at least 80% of the output of children's toys in the world, that is, more than four-fifths, and the Barbie dolls in children's toys have been prosperous for decades and have continuously introduced new models. When my daughter was a child, every year she had to buy new models according to her requirements, adding up to no ten but also seven or eight, this kind of children's toys that have been passed down by word of mouth in the world for many years and especially liked by children after seeing them, were mass-produced in China, and Chinese got a relatively low income in the middle, and the left and right high-end were held in the hands of foreigners, which was also in line with the state of the smile curve. In this case, Teacher Wu Jinglian mentioned that it is difficult to say that we have been doing intermediate work for a long time, and we are doing the work of "hard coolies". At the beginning of China's reform and opening up, it was necessary to do these tasks, because there was no other skill, at the beginning of the eighties, it was necessary to introduce the product design that had been tested by the market, and the raw materials provided by others (the quality could be qualified), the country only came out of the land, built factories, provided low labor cost workers, formed the basic conditions for a win-win situation between China and foreign countries, brought out the original accumulation of China's capital, and then developed step by step into a world factory. The entry point is like this, but if it is always in this position, it is sandwiched in the middle, there is suppression on the top, and then there are chasers, and the advantages in the future are more and more inferior to those of Vietnam and Cambodia. If the developed countries are contained above, if they cannot break through, then our road will become narrower and narrower. Very importantly, China's current manufacturing industry to break through, with the spirit of craftsmanship, the spirit of innovation, with a variety of efforts together, the way out is to put our overall production capacity, from the middle position to the left and right of the two high-end support. Then there must be customized solutions for each industry's own "supply-side structural reform". There is no simple routine to take, a set in this enterprise, this industry, you can upgrade and develop, there is no such a cheap thing. But there are real cases of success.
For example, the example of a guangzhou automobile manufacturer. People know that Guangben has a good reputation in the market, I used to be the director of the Scientific Research Institute of the Ministry of Finance for more than ten years, the car I sat on was Guangben, after driving to more than 600,000 kilometers, I found that there was no need to overhaul, usually there was little problem, but also fuel saving, comfortable, the appearance was also pleasing to the eye, a lot of advantages. The automobile manufacturers are in Guangzhou, but the high-end revenues are firmly grasped by the Japanese. Later, this manufacturer, under the concept of introduction, digestion, absorption and innovation, formed a series of products with complete intellectual property rights, one by one to the market, a few years ago, under the situation of the decline in Sales of Chinese automobiles, one of their "GAC Trumpchi", sold very well, can sell hundreds of thousands of vehicles per year, which shows that he upgraded: the position, is no longer in the middle, has been left and right high-end are in the hands, what opportunities appear at this time? After firmly grasping the left and right high-end, he can move his production line to Vietnam and Cambodia to become a multinational company and better achieve the improvement of his comprehensive performance. This is very inspiring and represents the general orientation of China's entire manufacturing industry upgrading. If we want to talk about upgrading, we must strive to put our strength from the middle to the left and right high-end. This process of supporting it must have a customized plan. In this regard, we may wish to have our "attract talents" and "the introduction of external brain" combination of paving, entrepreneurs are of course the last decision-makers, for decision-making reference programs, you can come from the expert team's suggestions, especially through the purchase of services, get people to give you the advice of the program, you can compare, and even after multiple comparisons to do their advantages to do synthesis, this is to borrow the external brain, the use of their own industry, the enterprise of trust in the experts, together, to support the design of upgrading and development of specific programs.
Back to the theme word that we all pay attention to today - the spirit of craftsmanship, which talks about excellence, to achieve the ultimate, combined with the trend to see the general trend - take the "potential", and combined with the further exploration of the law - "Ming Dao", and then in all aspects of "details determine success or failure" with the spirit of craftsmanship to do its best - "fine art". In the market game, there is also the problem of "timing", which is also the most important voice for you entrepreneurs, when to exert force? Too early can't work, too late is not ok, a lot of market opportunities to seize, quick foot first, if you really rush to the forefront, maybe you eat dumplings, follow your people to drink soup; if you are one step slower than others, maybe people eat dumplings, you drink soup; if you are two steps slower than others, three steps, you may not even be able to drink soup. In this regard, we must strive to realize the ambitions of entrepreneurs, realize the value of our lives, and strive to form a high level of customized solutions in the industries and investment projects we are positioning ourselves.
Please criticize and correct these views! Thank you.
Jia Kang Introduction
He is a member of the 11th and 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a special expert of the talent pool of the CppcC National Committee for political participation and deliberation, the president of the Huaxia New Supply Economics Research Institute, and a researcher and doctoral supervisor of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences. He has long served as the director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance. He is a special expert, consultant or advisory member of beijing, Shanghai, Fujian, Anhui, Gansu, Guangxi, Tibet and other local governments, and a distinguished professor of Peking University, Chinese University, National School of Administration, Central Socialist College, Nankai University, Wuhan University, Xiamen University and other universities. In 1988, he was selected for the Heinz Foundation project and went to the University of Pittsburgh for one year as a visiting scholar. In 1995, he enjoyed the special government allowance of the State Council. In 1997, he was rated as the high-level academic leader of the National Million Talents Project. He has been invited by leading comrades of the party and the state to discuss economic work many times. He was one of the special speakers of the 18th collective study "Fiscal and Taxation System Reform" of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee on January 8, 2010. Winner of the Sun Yefang Economics Prize, the Huangda-Mundell Economics Prize, and the China Soft Science Award. He is a member of the National Expert Committee of the 11th Five-Year Plan, the 12th Five-Year Plan and the 13th Five-Year Plan, and a member of the Expert Committee of the PPP Expert Database of the National Development and Reform Commission. In 2013, he edited "New Supply: China's Innovation in Economic Theory", initiated the establishment of the "Huaxia New Supply Economics Research Institute" and the "New Supply Economics 50 Forum" (as the first dean and the first secretary-general, and the chief economist during the second council), and from 2015 to 2016, he co-authored with Su Jingchun "New Supply Economics", "Supply Side Reform: A Concise Reader of New Supply" and "China's Barrier: How to Overcome the "Middle-Income Trap" (awarded by the China Book Critics Association and CCTV). 2016 China Good Books", published in 2016, "Ten Lectures on Supply-side Reform" was rated as a national excellent textbook by the Central Organization Department, the State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, and the National Library. After 2017, he has written and published many monographs such as "Theoretical Model and Practical Path of Supply-side Structural Reform", "Future Finance and Taxation on the Main Line of Supply-side Reform", and "General Theory of Fiscal Science". According to the large statistical analysis of more than 7 million articles in 6268 academic journals of philosophy and science in China from 2006 to 2015 published by China Social Science Assessment, Mr. Jia Kang's number of articles (398 articles), the total citation frequency (4231 times) and the total download frequency (204115 times) all ranked first, and the comprehensive index was 3429, ranking first, and he was a representative scholar among the core authors of economics.