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On the fourth day of the Wagner mutiny, the situation in Russia remained confusing. The rebellion has been quelled, but the rest of the rebellion is spreading, sparking speculation and doubt. Less than 24 hours into the mutiny, its effects and ripple effects are far from subsiding. On June 28, Russian President Vladimir Putin suddenly appeared on the streets of the Republic of Dagestan, drawing enthusiastic cheers from the public. However, this appearance is very different from the performance after the mutiny in the past, and it is these two absent figures that have triggered various speculations from the outside world.
The first figure to be watched was the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gerasimov. Long before the outbreak of the mutiny, rumors spread that the original plan was to kidnap Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gerasimov. However, this plan was thwarted by the FSB, leading to defection as the last option. However, it is surprising that neither during the outbreak of the mutiny nor in the later phase of subsidence, Gerasimov did not appear in the public eye. And Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who was alongside him, not only appeared at the Russian front-line command post after the mutiny, but also met with visiting Cuban Defense Minister Miera in Moscow. All this contrasts sharply with Gerasimov's silence, which has led to a lot of speculation from the outside world.
And on Surovikin, deputy commander-in-chief of Russia's special military operation and known as the "doomsday general", the international community has also paid attention. On the same day that Putin appeared on the streets of the Republic of Dagestan, rumors spread that Surovikin had been arrested. The Moscow Times quoted sources as saying that Surovikin may have known that Wagner was going to launch a rebellion, but did not report the intelligence, so he became the target of "liquidation".
However, the day after the news broke, Surovikin's daughter spoke out and denied rumors of her father's arrest, saying that he was still at work and that everything was normal. For this matter, the New York Times also reported that Russian press secretary Peskov said that he had not received relevant information, and he suggested that the media check with the Russian Ministry of Defense. As for the specific whereabouts of Surovikin, Peskov chose to remain silent.
Based on all the information, there is no conclusive evidence that Surovikin has been arrested. On the one hand, the Moscow Times, which reported the incident, was based in the Netherlands, although it regarded itself as a Russian media and was actually headquartered in the Netherlands, so its position in Russian official information transmission was not prominent. This has led some to wonder whether this is part of a Western public opinion war aimed at creating new chaos for Russia, which has just experienced a mutiny.
On the other hand, Surovikin was the commander-in-chief of Russia in the conflict in Ukraine and the superior of the Wagner mercenary corps. He had a good relationship with Wagner's leader Prigozhin, but some analysts suggested that he may have been dissatisfied with some of the decisions of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov. Surovikin's consistent hard-line style is different from that of these two senior officials. At the same time, however, it was pointed out that, based on his military experience, he was unlikely to be involved in a mercenary group's rebellion plan for personal gain or affection. After all, such a decision can have disastrous consequences, and Surovikin clearly does not take such responsibilities lightly.
In the shadow of this Wagner mutiny, turmoil and uncertainty within Russia are still spreading. Various speculations and rumors are intertwined to form an intricate picture. The mutiny is over, but the story behind it continues, and the future direction is full of uncertainty.
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