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Recently, some dynamic events on the international stage have attracted widespread attention. Among them, US Secretary of State Blinken's visit to China and Chinese Foreign Ministry Director Wang Yi's re-meeting with Blinken attracted much attention. During the meeting, Wang Yi mentioned a word with a special meaning - "gray rhinoceros".
So, what is a "gray rhinoceros"? Three salient characteristics of the "gray rhino" event have gradually become clear in people's minds: high probability, obvious characteristics, and easy to be overlooked. This strange creature, although huge, has a surprising impact.
Although Wang Yi did not directly elaborate on the specific connotation of the "gray rhino" incident, combined with China's previous statements, we may be able to speculate one or two. The Chinese government has made it clear that the issue of "Taiwan independence" is a potentially destructive "gray rhinoceros." This means that Wang Yi may remind the United States in a more tactful way not to intervene in the Taiwan issue rashly.
This is not an isolated voice in China's diplomacy. Mainland Ambassador to the United States Xie Feng also mentioned issues related to the "black rhino" at the Aspen Security Forum recently, calling on the US side to prevent the "black rhino" incident from causing new interference and impact on Sino-US relations.
The Chinese government's mention of the "black rhinoceros" twice in a month underscores the high sensitivity of the Taiwan issue in China's foreign policy. If the Biden administration really wants to improve Sino-US relations, it must stop provoking the Taiwan issue, because once the "black rhinoceros" rampage, Sino-US relations may fall into irreparable difficulties.
How to resolve the Taiwan issue has been a difficult problem that has plagued China for many years. Generally speaking, the solution to the Taiwan issue is roughly divided into two types: one is "peaceful reunification" and the other is "military reunification", but in either case, the ultimate goal is to realize the reunification of the motherland.
From China's point of view, "peaceful reunification" is undoubtedly the most ideal and preferred solution. But if "peace unification" cannot be achieved, then the PLA will face a series of challenges in carrying out "armed unification". The British press made some points about this.
First of all, they believe that the first major challenge that the PLA will face in the process of "military unification" is how to ensure the safety of civilian lives. One of the issues that all military operations around the world must face is how to reduce civilian casualties in operations.
Although Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party authorities have purchased a large number of American weapons in an attempt to turn Taiwan into a "military hedgehog", it remains a serious challenge for the PLA to break through Taiwan's defense system and achieve "military unification" without harming a large number of civilians.
Secondly, "the PLA's lack of combat experience" is also a problem mentioned by the British media. Despite the PLA's repeated military exercises, it is undeniable that it has not participated in actual combat for more than four decades.
The third challenge is "the difficulty of raising a large number of troops". The British press believes that the PLA may have difficulty gathering a sufficient number of troops. However, this view is actually a misunderstanding of China's military strength, which not only has a strong active-duty military, but also a large reserve force.
To sum up, the settlement of the Taiwan issue is not an easy task, and no matter which method is chosen, it is full of challenges and uncertainties. However, we hope that all parties will deal with this complex issue in a peaceful, rational and pragmatic manner, with the primary goal of maintaining peace and stability in the region and the world. Only through dialogue and cooperation can a lasting and stable solution be found, so that the Taiwan issue will no longer become a source of tension in Sino-US relations, but a booster of regional cooperation and peaceful development. This is also the general expectation of the international community.
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