Extreme weather is becoming our "regular".
In the first half of this year, many places in Yunnan Province suffered from severe drought or even extreme drought, and the average precipitation was 60% less than the same period of previous years, the lowest in the past 10 years. Since the beginning of summer, high temperature and heat waves have swept through many cities in the north of the mainland, and the maximum daily temperature in many places has exceeded historical extremes. Recently, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has been superimposed with an extreme precipitation that broke through historical extremes after high temperatures. Last year, there was a severe drought in the Yangtze River Basin, and Poyang Lake was dry for nearly 80 days, and the water area shrank by 90%, but this year's drought and flood have changed sharply, and Jiangxi, Fujian, Chongqing, Guangxi and other places have experienced heavy rainfall since May, and the rainfall has also exceeded the highest historical extreme.
At the same time, around the world, Europe, the United States, Canada, Mexico, India ... Many countries have also been hit by extreme weather such as high temperature weather, forest fires, and tornadoes.
Extreme weather is breaking records, but we are not aware of the crisis!
Extreme weather events have become the "new normal"
The heavy rainstorms that swept through Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in late July and early August gave people a glimpse of the powerful dangers of extreme weather.
Since July 29, Beijing, central and southern Hebei, northern Tianjin and other places have been hit by heavy rain or heavy rain, and the daily precipitation of many meteorological observation stations has exceeded historical extremes, and the cumulative rainfall in Hebei has even exceeded 1,000 mm. The entire process of heavy rainfall lasted until early August. Extremely heavy rainfall caused flash floods, landslides, floods of small and medium-sized rivers in Beijing and Hebei, waterlogging in Fangshan, Mentougou and Zhuozhou in Hebei, and numbered floods in the Ziya River, Yongding River and Daqing River in the Haihe River Basin.
While China was suffering from floods caused by extreme rainfall, Europe was also hit by heavy rains for several days, causing flooding. In early August, the Mulla River, which is about 450 kilometers long and originates in Austria and then flows into Slovenia, soared, forcing the governments of Slovenia, Austria, Poland and Croatia to evacuate people urgently. Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob said torrential rains had inundated much of the country's central and northeastern parts of the country, the "worst natural disaster" Slovenia has suffered since independence in 1991.
And last summer, Europe's "worst drought in 500 years" is still fresh in people's minds. At that time, the Danube, Europe's second-longest river, had fallen to one of its lowest levels in nearly a century, exposing the sinking of more than 20 German warships near the city of Prahovo in the Serbian section during World War II. Last year's drought profoundly affected Europe's food, shipping, energy and other fields. Who could have predicted that last year's drought would turn into a flood this year.
In fact, since the beginning of summer this year, many places around the world have encountered extreme weather, such as high temperatures, wildfires, hurricanes, floods, etc., which have greatly affected people's livelihood. For example, Texas, Florida and other places in the southern United States continued to have high temperatures in June, and the extremely high temperature weather in many parts of the United States on the Gulf Coast made Houston, Brownsville and other places feel the temperature as high as 46 to 49 degrees Celsius. Tornadoes fueled by hot weather also hit Texas, Florida and other states, killing several people.
The World Meteorological Organization warned on the 18th that the heat wave that swept through most parts of the world this summer once again reminded people that extreme weather events caused by human-induced climate change have become the "new normal".
WMO spokeswoman Clare Nullis noted that meteorological services in European countries such as France, Germany, Poland and Switzerland issued another high temperature warning this week.
In addition, temperatures in parts of the Middle East are expected to exceed 50°C in the coming days; Japan is experiencing a "protracted" heat wave with high temperatures breaking historical records.
Nalis also noted that Canada's record-breaking dry season continues. As of August 17, more than 600 wildfires have gone out of control across Canada. Even Canada's northernmost part near the Arctic Circle was not spared, and the town of Yellowknife in the Northern Territory issued a mass evacuation order due to the approaching fire.
Meanwhile, the town of Lytton, British Columbia, set a record for the highest temperature of 42.2°C this week.
"It's been a brutal summer for North America, Asia, Africa and vast parts of Europe," Guterres said. It's a disaster for the entire planet. He also noted that the heat waves sweeping the globe are caused by climate change, and although this phenomenon has long been predicted, the current pace of change is still devastating, "which is terrible."
WMO also warned that Hurricane Hillary had "very rapidly" strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane off Mexico's Pacific coast due to rising ocean surface temperatures. Sustained winds of up to 220 km/h are expected along the coast of Mexico this weekend.
Like many tropical cyclones, hurricanes pose an existential threat to human survival by triggering not only strong winds but also heavy rainfall, with up to 152 millimeters of precipitation expected in the affected areas of Mexico, Nalis said.
She said the usually arid southwestern United States, including major cities such as San Diego, will also experience "heavy rainfall for a short period of time," which is highly likely to cause flash floods.
WMO climate expert Alvaro Silva commented: "In recent decades, many extreme events, such as heat waves and heavy rainfall, have become more frequent and more intense. He believes that there is a "high degree of certainty" that climate change caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases is the main cause.
CNN also quoted scientists as saying that speculating about the climate for hundreds of thousands of years, based on material extracted from trees, coral reefs and deep-sea sediments, "it is almost certain that the current global temperature is the hottest on Earth in 120,000 years." Burgess, a European meteorological expert, said human-induced climate change was the main driver of this unusually high temperature, with "global temperatures proportional to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere."
This year, El Niño weather patterns will have a significant impact on the southwest Pacific, bringing higher temperatures, damaging weather, as well as more ocean heatwaves and coral bleaching, said WMO Secretary-General Talas said.
El Niño is the "fire" that ignites the "global boil"
Global extreme high temperature events continue to emerge, multi-point, scattered, frequent, like the continuous heating of bubbling water in a pot, from warm to "boiling". U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said there were signs that the era of global warming seemed to be over, and an era of "global boiling" was ushering in.
The World Meteorological Organization said in a July 4 statement that El Niño occurred in the tropical Pacific Ocean for the first time in seven years. Behind the global warming booster to the "global boil", in addition to human activities, El Niño also has a place. How is this year's El Niño different from previous ones?
Zhou Bing, chief expert of climate services of the National Climate Center, said that the El Niño process showed a typical eastern pattern, and the largest warming center appeared in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean. The data shows that the same type of El Niño that developed in the spring in the past has reached moderate and higher intensity. The El Niño event developed in May, and the National Climate Center expects El Niño to form in the fall and reach moderate and above intensity. According to Zhou Bing's analysis, there may be a peak from November to January next year, combined with the results of domestic and foreign dynamic statistics forecasts, there is a high probability that it will last until March next year.
El Niño is an important factor in the frequent and record-breaking extreme weather events in many parts of the world. Zhou Bing introduced that the global average warming per decade is 0.14 °C, while the moderate and above El Niño warming amplitude of 0.05 °C to 0.12 °C, equivalent to the cumulative warming range of 4 to 8 years. Combined with the magnitude of global warming from April to July, 2023 is very likely to break the warmest record of 2016 and become the warmest year since 1850.
The impact of El Niño on the global climate is significant. Taking its impact on the climate of South America as an example, on August 7, the Chilean region of Coquimbo recorded a high temperature of 37°C, the second highest temperature in Chilean winter history, with the highest temperature in history reaching 37.3°C in August 1951, which was also the year of El Niño.
The phased high temperature process in South America is related to the unusually strong subtropical high control in the southern hemisphere, and the sinking air flow of the El Niño-inspired tropical latitude secondary circulation strengthens the subtropical high in South America and makes the center southerly. Northern Chile was controlled and influenced by a high-pressure system that allowed drought and high temperatures to develop.
In addition, the magnitude of the global warming impact of strong to super El Niño events ranges from 0.12°C to 0.22°C, and the amplitude of global warming from a super to super El Niño that began in the fall of 2014 and continued until 2016 is about 0.15°C. Considering the superimposed effect of El Niño on global warming and the warming effect since May, it is more likely that 2023 will set the warmest event in history. The climate anomalies caused by El Niño cannot be underestimated, or they are a powerful driver of the "global boiling" era.
The global "breadbasket" is facing a crisis
The latest warning from the World Meteorological Organization shows that with the occurrence of El Niño, severe weather in some major international food-producing areas will lead to a reduction in food production and a sharp increase in food prices.
This is confirmed by data released by the Thai Rice Exporters Association on 9 August. Thai white rice, the benchmark for 5 percent crushing in Asia, jumped to $648 a tonne, up nearly 50 percent from last year.
However, this is not the only sign that global food security is being tested. As early as May this year, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations warned about the state of global food security in a report. Global acute food insecurity is likely to continue to deepen in 2023 due to the intertwining and interfluencing of factors such as global economic weakness, regional conflicts and extreme weather events, the report said.
Clearly, climate change has become a variable that cannot be ignored in the global food security problem.
In The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023, climate change, extreme weather events, as well as economic shocks, conflict and insecurity are listed as the top three drivers of global food crisis severity and malnutrition.
Alain Richard Donwahi, president of the United Nations Conference on Desertification and Minister of Water Resources and Forests of Côte d'Ivoire, warned that agriculture is facing a serious threat, and the world may face severe food supply disruptions before the global average temperature rises by 1.5 degrees Celsius.
According to the British "Guardian" reported on the 12th, East Wahi said that the pace of climate change is faster than expected, "everyone is concerned (the global average temperature is rising from pre-industrialization) 1.5 degrees Celsius, which is a very important indicator." But in fact, before it reaches 1.5 degrees Celsius, very bad things like soil degradation, water scarcity and desertification are already happening. He added that disasters such as heat waves, droughts, floods and other disasters will jeopardize food security in many regions.
In Thailand, for example, after the El Niño phenomenon in 2016, some rice-growing areas in Thailand experienced severe drought, and rice yields eventually decreased due to insufficient irrigation. This year, that momentum seems to be returning. Previously, Thailand's meteorological department predicted that this year's rainy season will have fewer total rainfall than last year, and there may be dry spells that will lead to water shortages in agricultural areas, some farmers may leave their fields fallow, and rice cultivation in some areas may be limited to one season.
In Spain, the spring drought has also severely affected wheat crops, with more than 3.5 million hectares of crops in 60% of agricultural areas suffering "irreversible losses" due to extreme drought. According to the latest report of the German Association of Agricultural Cooperatives cited by the media, the yield of all types of wheat crops in Germany in 2023 will fall by 2.9% year-on-year due to hot and dry weather.
A review of publicly available information shows that in the context of increasing climate change uncertainty, countries are beginning to take action to ensure their own food security. For example, due to El Niño, Thai authorities expect to face widespread drought from early 2024. In response, the Thai government has asked farmers to limit the diversification of cash crops and concentrate resources to ensure the production of staple foods such as rice.
India, the world's largest rice exporter, was the first to restrict exports because of the El Niño phenomenon. On July 20, India announced that it would ban the export of rice other than parboiled rice and basmati rice to secure supplies in the domestic market. More knock-on reactions followed: the UAE Ministry of Economy followed suit by announcing a 4-month moratorium on exports of all rice varieties; The Russian government also announced an extension of its ban on rice and broken rice exports until the end of this year.
At the July 24 UN Food Systems Summit (UNFS) Summit, Guterres described the current global food system as "broken".
The International Weather Attribution Group (WWA) conducted an attribution analysis and found that global warming can be found behind almost all kinds of extreme weather around the world.
The World Meteorological Organization has warned that global temperatures could rise to record highs within the next five years and exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold set by the Paris Agreement.
This, perhaps, is the source of everything.
Source: Ecological China Network comprehensive collation, graphic invasion and deletion.