This year, the biggest crisis in the Taiwan Strait is Taiwan's "constitutional revision."
Koo Kuan-min, a 95-year-old Taiwan independence tycoon, recently said, "I want to resign from the presidential office and I want to give up on MEMBERS of the Democratic Progressive Party," citing dissatisfaction with the Tsai Ing-wen government's cold handling of the formulation of a new constitution. He pointed to the latest poll published by the Taiwan Constitutional Foundation, where he is the chairman of the board, saying that 78 percent of Taiwanese support Taiwan becoming a normal country, 65 percent support joining the United Nations in the name of Taiwan, and 55 percent believe That Taiwan should have a new constitution. However, Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP government still can't hear it, so they have to resign angrily.
Tsai Ing-wen naturally "expresses the meaning of consolation", all of which are a hill of raccoons, singing a double reed for Taiwanese to see, and more importantly for the Biden administration. They know very well that in the past, the Trump administration played the Taiwan card madly and may have been more supportive of Taiwan independence, but although the current Biden administration still plays the Taiwan card, it has recycled a little, and in the end, where is the "degree" controlled by the new US administration over the situation in the Taiwan Strait, which may be a variable, and it still needs to be seen?
Gu Kuanmin and Tsai Ing-wen are clearly different in this round of Taiwan's de jurisprudence and Taiwan independence. Koo Kuan-min made it clear that he wanted to "make a constitution" and formulate a new Constitution for Taiwan. This is like Chen Shui-bian's claim after coming to power in 2000 that it will be handed over to Taiwan in 2008 as "a new constitution that is timely, fit, and applicable" and "make Taiwan a normal, complete, great, and beautiful country."
Yao Jiawen, former chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party, also echoed this, pointing out that the lack of the "Constitution of the Republic of China" system has been exposed, and although it has been amended several times, it is still not applicable to Taiwan, and suggested that the name of the country should be "Republic of Taiwan." Chen Longzhi, chairman of Taiwan's New Century Cultural and Educational Foundation, also said that the current "Constitution of the Republic of China" was brought to Taiwan by Chiang Kai-shek's exiled regime by Chinese mainland and forcibly suppressed on the people of Taiwan. Therefore, only by formulating the "Taiwan Constitution" can we get rid of the shadow of the outdated five-power constitution from abroad and make Taiwan a normalized country.
Koo Kuan-min was born in 1926 to koo Hsien-wing, a merchant during the Japanese occupation in Taiwan, and to Yoshiko Iwase, a Japanese. In the 1947 228 incident, Koo Kuan-min went into exile in Japan to form the "Taiwan Independence Alliance" and was wanted by the Kuomintang until his return to Taiwan in 1972. He has also recently threatened to quit the DPP more than once. In October last year, his proposal for a "constitutional referendum" was rejected and he threatened not to rule out his withdrawal from the Democratic Progressive Party. Some Taiwan netizens also said that "Taiwan independence" is true or false, and first of all, it is to deceive votes.
However, Tsai Ing-wen is clearly more cunning than Gu Kuanmin. She still uses her usual "sausage cutting" tactics, seeing the walking steps, the minimum goal is to lower the voting age to 18 years old, or if possible, to strive to lower the "constitutional amendment threshold", if the public support is high, can also put "the deletion of national unity" into the referendum. Kuomintang bigwig Su Qi pointed out that when Tsai Ing-wen strengthens her appointment, she can achieve her goal by saying the new name of "Taiwan of the Republic of China" without parentheses, and there is no need to step on the red line of "de jure Taiwan independence" in another way.
In fact, Tsai Ing-wen's revision of the Constitution must look at Biden's face. She was well aware of the scene when Chen Shui-bian was given the chairmanship of the Mainland Affairs Council, when Ah Bian was greeted by US President Bush with rude words. At that time, Ah Bian repeatedly instigated "Taiwan independence to make a constitution" in the "520 inaugural speech" and the "Double Tenth Speech," and also passed the so-called "constitutional amendment bill" to completely abolish the "National Convention" and adopt the "public entry into the constitution" to create conditions for the realization of "de jure Taiwan independence." At the same time, it is also deliberately implementing the "correct name of Taiwan," claiming that "the Republic of China is Taiwan, and Taiwan is the Republic of China." It was Precisely Chen Shui-bian's impatience for independence that did not conform to the US policy of "not unilateral.B ly changing the status quo in the Taiwan Strait" at that time, and Chen Shui-bian did not heed advice. (Raised by the dog mother), and referred to Chen Shui-bian as a "troublemaker".
On the one hand, Tsai Ing-wen wants to look at the face of the United States, on the other hand, does not look at the face of the mainland? The Cai government said that the excuse not to use force on the mainland is not to look at the face?
The author believes that, in an objective comparison, Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen were in a different environment today, and knowing what Tsai Ing-wen is afraid of, we can better predict the next step of Taiwan's constitutional revision:
First, the US policy toward China is different, and Bush and later Clinton and Obama basically maintain a policy of engagement with China, maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and even do not support Taiwan independence. Now, Biden basically inherits Trump's China containment policy and plays the Taiwan card, but has adjusted backwards, and there is uncertainty in the future.
Second, the Chinese mainland's own strength has fundamentally changed the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait, especially the military pattern in the Taiwan Strait, compared with the Great Leap Forward 20 years ago. Not only does the Taiwan military understand, but the US military also understands. The author believes that the United States played an important role in stopping Chen Shui-bian's de jure Taiwan independence 20 years ago. Today, the mainland can completely rely on its own strength to oppose Taiwan independence.
Third, the legal environment and experience of Chinese mainland anti-Taiwan independence are becoming more and more mature. It is precisely in response to Chen Shui-bian's "de jure Taiwan independence" that the "Anti-Secession Law" was formulated, and this is precisely the weapon used to oppose Taiwan independence's constitutional revision or constitution-making.
Obviously, with regard to Taiwan's "constitutional revision," it is necessary to observe it in the context of the entire "great change situation" and is full of variables. However, as for Gu Kuanmin and other crazy Taiwan independence elements, it is still the phrase "don't say it is unpredictable."