The Trail Blazers urged the Miami Heat to make the best and final offer for Lillard. The Heat are currently Lillard's designated home, and other potential suitors worry about someone who gets Lillard but doesn't get Lillard's heart. This is a real impasse with no clear end in sight.
Lillard's trade request may feel like an earthquake event on the NBA map, but something similar happens every year. Before Lillard, it was Durant who asked for a trade. Before Durant, it was Harden who left Houston. Before Harden, it was Anthony Davis. Superstar trade requirements are as much part of the NBA as blocking. The Blazers had encountered this before, and that was in 1978, when Center Bill Walton, the most valuable player at the time, demanded a trade.
Blazers 75 group photo: Lillard, Wharton, Drexler
Over the years, requests for trade for NBA superstars have told us how Lillard's situation will eventually play out, with five endings.
1. Damian Lillard was traded to the Miami Heat before the season
There seems to be a potential avenue of trading at the moment, either requiring the Heat to pull out all of their assets, or the Blazers accepting a offer below psychological standards.
Lillard wants to go to the Heat, and the Heat want Lillard, which is already an open secret.
Miami could offer their own unprotected first-round pick in 2028 and 2030. If it modifies the protections for the Thunder's future picks, it could add a third first-round pick in 2026. The Heat could also offer Taylor Hiro, but the Blazers don't want him. Kyle Lowry's upcoming salary may also play a role. If the deal goes through, rookie Jamie Jax and second-year rookie Nicola Jovic are also expected to switch to the Blazers. The Blazers may also want Miami to accept Yusuf Nurkic's contract, which is considered a "player-friendly" deal.
Trading Hiro to a third team for one or two picks seems like the sticking point at the moment, but it would require another team that really values Hiro. It feels unlikely. Instead, it seems like the 2026 unprotected draft pick will really be the deciding factor. If the Blazers can get Jax, three unprotected first-round picks, and get rid of Nurkic's contract, it's a good deal for the Blazers. Of course, Miami has to put everything on the table.
2. Damian Lillard returns to the Blazers, waiting to be traded
Trail Blazers CEO Joe Cronin has said Lillard's deal could take months to close. If it continues into this season, Lillard could return to Portland to play for the team while waiting for a trade.
Everyone seems to think Lillard has played his last game as a Trail Blazers player
A year ago, Kevin Durant, like Lillard, was in trouble when the Brooklyn Nets demanded a trade. The Nets couldn't find an acceptable trade option, and Durant played 39 games for the team at MVP level before finally being traded to Phoenix. (Durant's work ethic is far higher than some big-name guards) The difference in this situation is the change of ownership of the Suns, and when Matt Ishbia took control of the team, he immediately went all out to get Durant. Something similar won't happen, and it won't save Lillard's potential deal.
When the Trail Blazers drafted Scout Henderson with the third overall pick, the team expressed hope Henderson and Lillard played together. At the same time, the team knew Lillard wanted to trade the pick for a veteran, so they weren't too surprised when he made a trade request. Can a few months bridge the gap between players and teams? We'll probably know right away.
3. Damian Lillard revokes the transaction request
This is the least likely option, but it still needs to be considered. Lillard may return to Portland, realizing that the team is better than expected with Scout Henderson and Sheldon Sharp developing, and decide to stay the course with the Trail Blazers.
Perhaps Henderson has reached star level as a rookie. Perhaps Nurkic had a rebound season while Jerami Grant enjoyed the best year of his career. Maybe the Trail Blazers can sell him in the near future.
I don't think this will happen, but it is possible.
4. Damian Lillard holds out until the deal happens
If Lillard hadn't been traded, would he really have opted to miss training camp and the entire season? It's something Durant didn't do last year while waiting for Brooklyn to trade him, but there's a recent precedent for Ben Simmons. Simmons didn't play a minute after the 2021 playoffs before waiting for the Philadelphia 76ers to trade himself.
Lillard seems unlikely to accept his trade request. He risks fines and ruins his reputation. Still, if Lillard is bent on going to Miami and not anywhere else, he may try to force Portland by not playing.
5. Damian Lillard was traded to a team other than the Heat
This is the most interesting scenario. So far, given Lillard's desire to play for the Heat, many teams have been afraid to offer the Blazers a competitive trade package. If Miami continues to refuse to make the best offer, other clubs will finally have a chance to compete.
The Brooklyn Nets have been a potential destination for Lillard because of their ability to offer draft picks from the Suns and Mavericks, an asset that Durant and Kyrie Irving left for the Nets. The Toronto Raptors can make an offer that includes Scottie Barnes. Boston will trade around Derek White and Robert Williams. Philadelphia would love to add Lillard next to Embiid, but it's hard to see they can do that.
Either way, the longer this continues, the more room there will be for other teams to participate. Lillard will eventually be traded from the Blazers — and the location and purpose of the trade remains up in the air as the offseason drags on.
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