The end of the 2023 draft, this year's draft is definitely the most frequent draft in recent years, so many people give successful and unsuccessful evaluations for the operation of each team in the draft, but the editor wants to talk about the development of rookies themselves, or not optimistic about the players.
However, it is still necessary to state again, not that the players who are not optimistic will definitely become parallel goods, or that the players who are optimistic will definitely be able to play, but just that they have summed up their personal subjective judgment based on the current environment to which the player belongs and their own playing style.
After that, I will continue to follow the movements of these players three years later to see if they meet expectations (or if they are punched in the face).
6th pick: Anthony Black (Magic)
In fact, when watching the draft, I was a little stunned when I saw that the Magic chose Anthony Black, mainly because his skill package was placed in the current magic formation, which was somewhat awkward.
As mentioned in the draft review, the figure of the 201cm forward has the vision and anticipation ability of the guard level, which gives Anthony Black the opportunity to transform into a popular high point guard.
However, at present, after the Magic retained Markle Fultz and Gary Harris, the overall backcourt combat power has reached a saturation level, and the number one and two can discharge Markle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Gary Harris, Jaylen Suggs four-man rotation, of course, these four guards have their own shortcomings to overcome, and Markle Fultz and Cole Anthony are players who need to hold the ball to play their maximum power, and Jaylen Suggs also needs the ball to prove himself on the offensive end, In such an environment, if the coaching staff continues to rotate like this next season, Anthony Black feels like he won't have the ball at the back to play the ball that he does best.
And what if you put him on the front wing? In the Magic addition Joe Ingalls and his own forward Franz Wagner has gradually shown finishing ability, Anthony Black's slightly inferior finishing means and outside may become an uncertain factor in his scramble for rotation, and the confrontational concerns caused by his short period of thin body may also make him frustrated in the single defense of the opposing forward.
Next season, the Magic should increase the proportion of the main lineup Paul Bankero in the team, which also has a large chance of compressing the ball time of Anthony Black as a ball forward in possession, so if Anthony Black wants to enter the rotation in the new season, it may be his top priority to use his excellent sense of space to find his offensive and defensive positioning under the condition that the original schedule remains unchanged.
In other words, if Anthony Black can do a good job of empty-handed positioning, rotating passes, cultivating his sense of defense and co-defense in his rookie year, even if he can't physically defend against the opponent's strong striker alone, he can defend through the bag and judging the passing path, then maybe he can get playing time in the existing lineup. After that, looking at whether to develop into a defender or a striker, to adjust his skill set in order, if in the end four defenders are not the team's answer, then strengthen Anthony Black's outside line, increase his threat of blocking and hand-to-hand at the top of the arc, and have a chance to make him a backup after the four defenders, then if you want him to develop on the flank with the ball, you can strengthen his ability to dribble and finish, making him more capable of pulling the opposing defense with his offensive ability and creating opportunities for other players.
In summary, due to the Magic roster, I am not optimistic that Anthony Black can play in a short period of time, and even predict that this season may be a bit of a struggle if the ball ratio is not adjusted.
Or, I think Anthony Black's cultivation may depend on the positioning of the team, and wait for two or three seasons to have a clearer development, the current summer league Anthony Black has shown that his ball intelligence and space judgment is not a flash in the pan, defensively can predict the opponent's passing route, which adds a lot of points to his playing time in the new season, although the assist-to-error ratio is high offensively, but it can be seen that he can continue to find gaps for teammates while maintaining dribbling, If the coaching team can give him a clear direction for development, I believe Anthony Black can still grow into a good player.
7th pick: Bilal Koulibaly (Wizards)
To say that the player with the most sprint picks in this draft, Bilal Koulibaly is definitely on the list.
As a teammate of the top favorite Victor Vembanyama, Bilal Coulibaly's attention can be described as a chicken dog ascending to the sky, but in terms of hardware conditions alone, a height of 200cm, and an arm span of 218cm, all give Bilal Coulibaly a very big advantage in attack and defense.
At the same time, his explosiveness and lateral speed are also quite good, he can quickly follow offensive players, and use long arms to interfere, which allows him to defend from the No. 1 position to the No. 3 position, and he is only 18 years old, he knows how to use his footsteps to keep himself in position when defending, and will not be easily blocked by opponents or hand-to-hand to change defense, such a defensive awareness combined with the aforementioned hardware conditions, giving Bilal Coulibaly the opportunity to become the defensive player of the year.
Moreover, the reason why he can skyrocket in the draft, in addition to the attention of Victor Vembanyama, his ability to learn is also one of the keys.
Unlike Victor Venbanyamar's once-in-a-century talent, although Bilal Koulibaly is also in good condition, he is still an 18-year-old player, and perhaps the youth team can be like no one, but when he goes to the adult team, he still has to pay some tuition. This left Bilal Koulibaly not used in the early Ligue 1 period, but as the season progressed, he slowly gained the trust of his coach from the defensive end and eventually became a striker in the team's rotation.
On the offensive end, you can also see that he has slowly changed from a player who stands in the corner waiting for a receiver at the beginning to attack with the ball and use his explosive power to cut in when switching fast attacks, if his dribbling and autonomous offense can be practiced with his physical fitness, then his future imagination will be the popular all-round wing in the league now.
This potential also prompted his explosive rise to the top of the pick, and was eventually selected by the Wizards with the seventh pick.
However, all this is based on the premise that his offense must be developed.
From the content of the game, the current Bilal Koulibaly's offensive skills are still very primitive, starting from dribbling, in addition to not using non-dominant hands to cut, Bilal Coulibaly is also very bad at protecting the ball, which makes his dribbling is still in a very primitive stage, even in Ligue 1 can not get rid of the opponent by dribbling, let alone move to the NBA.
Coming back to the offensive footsteps, Bilal Koulibaly's cut is very one-way at the moment, purely by explosiveness, although when he was in the youth team, he can be seen using European steps to throw off opponents, and then put the ball into the basket after confrontation. But when the intensity rises to the senior team, unless it is a chance battle for offensive and defensive conversion, Bilal Koulibaly has a better chance to cut, otherwise in the half-court positional battle, Bilal Koulibaly's footsteps often cannot completely throw off the opponent who is positioned, and when facing second-line defenders, it will sometimes be reduced to a suicide layup, or be affected by the finishing feeling.
Various factors make him even if he has some cutting ability, but it is basically difficult to switch to the NBA in a short period of time.
So, since cutting into the offense does not work, what about the outside projection?
In Ligue 1, Bilal Coulibaly's projection opportunities are not much, so the number of samples is low, but from the projection mechanism, Bilal Coulibaly's shot coordination is smooth, so the amplitude of upper body adjustment should not be very large, but his projection is very stable to the center of gravity of the lower body, that is, to stand with both feet to hit the hit rate will be high, which allows him to play a role on the outside, then the current positioning can only be an ambush fixed-point shooter, and it is not particularly accurate.
To sum up, the development of the offensive end will determine the ceiling of Bilal Koulibaly, if he can practice catch-and-jump shots, then his defense and physical fitness can make him a useful 3D player, if he can practice dribbling and cutting into the foot, then he will become an all-round striker with both attack and defense, but if there is no way to practice with the ball and without the ball, then he may only be a defensive player with a large body, a single function, and easy to be replaced, stepping on his French senior Frank Nilikinana's struggling trajectory.
However, the current Wizards may have established the position of the two on the ball after trading Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma, plus there is also Denis Avdia who needs the ball to practice, so Bilal Koulibaly's positioning may start with no-ball running, open follow-up, and outside reception, but judging from the performance of scoring only one three-point shot in the first three games of the Summer League, his projection may not be optimistic under the intensity of the NBA, which is why I am not optimistic about him.
It's not that he can't survive on the pitch, but under Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma's long contract, if you don't let the two switch to no ball, and give Bilal Koulibaly the ball in time, it may be difficult for him to touch the ceiling of the all-round striker, and these skills such as dribbling footwork can not be practiced in a short time, not only the ball, but also Huigen.
But after all, he is only 18 years old, there is still a lot of room for adjustment, as long as he does a good job of the off-ball end (defense, empty hand) this season and cultivates the corresponding awareness and skill set, then for Bilal Koulibaly, it is a good first step.
20th pick: Cam Whitmore (Rockets)
In fact, the Rockets really have nothing to pick on Cam Whitmore in this pick, because in terms of talent, Cam Whitmore is definitely one of the top few in this year, and even compared with the top five picks Scout Henderson and Thompson brothers.
The 201cm forward height, showing strong explosiveness in sprints and jumps, combined with a strong body like an American football player, allows Cam Whitmore to cut through the opposing defender with the first explosive step, and then after playing against the second-line defender, put the ball into the basket with his excellent finishing feeling.
Many players who rely on physical fitness will have a common problem in the style of play, that is, because physical fitness can solve many problems in the past, most of these players will not do more pondering on the outside, because as long as they cut in and jump up, they can steadily score two points, so when they go to the field with greater intensity, the physical strength no longer has an overwhelming advantage, and the lack of outside is easy to make their development stuck.
But Cam Whitmore is not such a player, probably because of a leg injury in the past, which made Cam Whitmore realize that he could not sell his physical strength for a living, so he worked the outside, which made him inside and outside on the offensive end and more difficult to defend.
But since the talent is so high, why did he fall to the twentieth pick before being selected?
First of all, Cam Whitmore has always had health concerns, suffering a serious leg injury in high school and a finger injury in college, which has led many teams to put a question mark on his endurance.
Secondly, his attitude during joint tryouts is sluggish, especially when scouts of the team question his lack of interest before the actual confrontation, which makes him an unstable factor in the lounge and is easier to be magnified in modern times. At the same time, this is also reflected in his performance on the field, Cam Whitmore often has a lack of concentration on the field, especially on the defensive end, as can be seen from the 8 steals in the fourth game of the summer league, as long as he wants, he is fully capable of reading the space on the field and making correct judgments, but when he is not in form, he is prone to loss of position and lack of defense, and this must be improved if he wants to be a stable starter.
Finally, it comes back to the problem of ball skills, although Cam Whitmore has excellent physical fitness and offensive skill packages, but at present, his offensive mode is a very pure scorer, that is, to get the ball is to attack the basket first, passing ability is not to say that there is none, but his habit is to wait until the bag comes up to find passing opportunities, resulting in difficult to see empty teammates.
Moreover, his cutting relies heavily on the dominant hand and physical advantages, basically blocking the left cut can offset most of his cutting threats, in the NBA with better physical conditions, his physique is not completely able to create hand space for him, then he can play more steadily on the offensive end, only jump shots and open cuts.
However, although Cam Whitmore has outside ability, it does not mean that he is a good shooter, his shooting choices are not good, many times will resist defenders to force shots, which may be the courage of an ace player, and he does have the opportunity to send the ball to the basket, but is very unstable, which makes him likely to become a nerve knife type player, that is, depending on the feel of the night, to determine his offensive firepower.
To sum up, I think Cam Whitmore's ceiling is undoubtedly high, as long as he can strengthen the non-dominant ball handling, have a sound tactical system to support, let him cut through and tear the opponent's defense, then find teammates who run out of the gap, and can use blocks to create comfortable offensive space for him, then he has a good chance of growing into a good All-Star.
However, the reason why I am not optimistic is that the Rockets themselves have offensive arrows like Jaylen Green, plus Kevin Porter Jr. himself has a lot of possession, not to mention that the fourth-pick point guard Amen Thompson also needs the ball, so the first year to give Cam Whitmore a chance to practice ball handling, but also to compete with many players for playing time, if he does not have a stable scoring weapon, and lack of concentration on the defensive end, it is actually quite dangerous for him.
I think the new coach Amy Yuduka is likely to design tactics around center Alperon Shenjing in the new season, making use of his high position strategy, so starting from the off-ball position is also a problem that Cam Whitmore must face first, and then with the dribbling practice, it will determine whether his offensive ceiling is to become an all-round striker like Jaylen Brown or a point-grabbing nerve knife like JR Smith.
Perhaps you have found that the above few players I am less optimistic about, it is not that they really have the characteristics of becoming mines, just because they have selected their team, there are several players who clearly want to be cultivated in the core, so they may not be able to transfer resources to them, if you want to develop stably, you must change the way you played with a certain amount of ball in the past, support the team from the direction of the main rotation at this stage, and then slowly modify your skills, and this is definitely not overnight, The variables will also be relatively large.
Thirteenth pick: Grady Dick (Raptors)
When it comes to Grady Dick, the most striking thing may not only be his name, but also his look of loss in the draft, after all, he was originally predicted to have the strength to hit the top ten, but in the end he was only selected by the Raptors with the thirteenth pick at the end of the lottery.
However, based on his performance in the summer league, it is understandable that the team would have such doubts.
Let's talk about his body conditions, 203cm tall, a tall figure for a projective striker, although the physical fitness is not outstanding, but he has a good ability to run without the ball, even in the absence of the ball, he can lead the opponent's defense.
And these stem from his good spatial reading ability, which allows him to occasionally cut in and out of the gap empty-handed in addition to projecting. And not only is the gap high grasp, Grady Dick can also shoot 35% in the face of defenders in college, so if he can move the projection end to the NBA, then he will be a plug-and-play shooter player popular with all teams.
However, from the perspective of the summer league game, Grady Dick's current state adjustment is not very good, the three-point shooting rate is only 27%, in addition to the three-point line is farther than the university, there is no good interior to assist in blocking, helping Grady Dick create a good projection gap is also one of the reasons.
But this also highlights Grady Dick's flaw, that is, defense.
Grady Dick's traverse speed is slow, and the defense is mostly based on hard work, but hard work alone is the first step to stop the forward from exploding, and even if the opponent does not play physical flow, Grady Dick's confrontation has been seen in the summer league is a little inadequate, which makes him easily beaten out by the strong forward with his body.
In other words, defensively limited physical fitness, which makes Grady Dick easy to become a Duncan Robinson-type shooter, that is, defense and attack need teammates and tactical cover, and it is difficult to create offensive space independently.
However, from the content of the summer league, it can be seen that Grady Dick is still much better than Duncan Robinson in the use of dribbling and footwork, showing that he has the potential to develop the ball attack. And with the current Raptors' formation, I am still optimistic about the development of Grady Dick in previous years, because the team has Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam two ball-carrying offensive points, which can help Grady Dikra open the projection space, coupled with the departure of Fred VanVleet on the outside, Dennis Schroder who added is not a player known for the outside line, so Grady Dick should have a lot of firing rights on the outside, which helps him adapt to the league.
As long as the projection end is stable, then it is at least certain that Grady Dick will have some playing time in the regular season, and if you can add more ability to block and break and change direction on the dribbling end, you may have a chance to see a self-propelled gun like Taylor Hiro.
Eighteenth pick: Jaime Hax Jr. (Heat)
I haven't played a summer league, so why am I still optimistic about Jaime Hax Jr.?
Jaime Hax, Jr., who is currently not going to play in the Summer League because of a shoulder injury, is a rookie who is a perfect fit for the Heat.
Jaime Hax Jr. has a height of 206cm, is a standard forward body, from the perspective of skill pack, Jaime Hax Jr. has a little bit of a style of play, playing power forward in college, so he has a low offensive footsteps, and when the team needs someone to cut into the attack from the outside, he can also give some support, know how to use his body to create fouls, create opportunities to stand on the free throw line.
And when he pulls to the middle distance or even the outside, Jaime Hax Jr. also has a certain projection ability, which helps clear the box space, and he knows very well what he should do on the field, even if he does not have the ball, he has excellent ability to run without the ball, knows how to cut into the box, and uses a supple finishing touch to score the ball.
To put it simply, on the offensive end, Jaime Hax Jr. is a master of bad fights, and what can be improved is that what is more valuable is that Jaime Hax Jr. also has a certain ability to respond, can observe the space on the field to find vacant teammates, and Bam Adebayo has the opportunity to form an excellent high and low partner.
And the characteristic of not eating the ball makes him very suitable for the Heat, such a system and clear ball holding point, the moment is to attack the championship team.
It's just that Jaime Hax Jr. is of course also flawed, first of all, his physical strength and lateral speed are not good, although the ball intelligence is very high so that he knows how to use the position and assistant defense to make up for the lack of deficiencies when defending, but if the single defense, it can easily become a breakthrough point for the opponent's singles.
In addition, although there is an outside line on the projection end, Jaime Hax Jr.'s three-point shooting is not accurate, the university's 31.7% three-point shooting rate is not high, and his height limitation makes him easy to be blocked by the tall center of the second line even if he cuts the box, so if you want to liberate his offensive threat at a greater level at the NBA level, then it is imperative to stabilize the projection end.
At present, Jaime Hax Jr.'s projection posture is not bad, and there should be a chance to develop a stable projection.
Recently, the Heat's draft policy is mostly to use draft drafts to bet on players with high talent but low completion, and then look for players with high ball intelligence and high combat effectiveness in the draft loss, but the versatility of players with high talent and low completion is that it takes two to three seasons of cultivation, which leads to the Heat often lacking available soldiers in the playoffs, although last season by relying on the draft army to play a wonderful season, but the ceiling of talent makes the South Beach army feel weak when facing the Nuggets in the championship game.
If you want to grasp Jimmy Butler's limited time, then perhaps it is time to prioritize immediate combat power, and Jaime Hax, Jr., who idolizes Jimmy Butler, is a good choice.
Therefore, I am quite optimistic about the development of Jaime Hax Jr., perhaps the offensive end starts from the no-ball position, the defensive code is made up by the team defense, although Max Strus and Gabe Vincent, the two mainstays who helped the team reach the championship, but in other directions, the departure of Max Strus also gave Jaime Hax Jr. the opportunity to play, hoping that he could play well with his idol in Miami.
24th pick: Prosper (Lone Ranger)
Before I talk about my favoritism about Prosper, I want to talk about the Irving deal.
I myself think that the original Irving trade case was actually a bit of a move to dig the east wall to make up for the western wall, although it solved the problem of helping Luka Doncic find a second offensive point with the ball, but overdrew his own flank defense, traded his own Dorian Finney-Smith, so that the lone ranger who was not good at defense was even less a player who could defend the opposing boss alone.
However, with Prosper's choice, such problems are expected to improve.
Having said that, it is not difficult to know that Prosper's selling point is defense, 203cm height and nearly 216cm arm span, is quite a standard forward body, and long arm span also gives Prosper a large interference range, and in terms of athleticism, Prosper is also very good, horizontal movement and explosiveness, and the sense of defense is very positive, and will not easily jump or be dislocated by fake movements, which gives him the potential to defend from No. 1 to No. 4, Even Dorian Finney-Smith, who has a chance to become a physically enhanced version on the defensive end.
As for the offensive end, his excellent explosiveness and bouncing power give him an advantage in converting fast attacks, and Prosper has a certain sense of no-ball positioning, which does not overlap with the current Luka Doncic and Irving's ball-carrying offense, but can find gaps on the weak side when they attract defense.
But Prosper's shortcomings also appear on the offensive end, at present Prosper does not have a particularly excellent offensive means, in college its projection end is only 33.9%, summer league is only 28.6%, as a player with 3D as a selling point is failing, from the shooting posture, Prosper's shooting power is not very stable, must catch the ball and stand before shooting, resulting in slower shooting timing, and the lower body center of gravity is affected, the shot is easy to deflect.
The development of shooting ability, especially the development of catch-and-shoot projection, I think will greatly affect Prosper's influence on the offensive end and the minutes he plays.
Moreover, although his explosiveness gives him a very fast first step, but at present, his ball holding cut is only at the level of potential, and there is no way to move to the NBA, premature stoppage, lack of direction change, too high center of gravity, weak non-dominant hand, all the problems of the ball Prosper has a little, and dribbling ability will also affect Prosper's ceiling, if you can develop dribbling ability, you may not necessarily become an all-round forward, but it can become after the opponent's defensive center of gravity is pulled away by Luka Doncic and Irving, As a breakout point on the weak side.
To sum up, I think the current vacancy in the Lone Ranger's flank is very suitable for Prosper to train, and the room to play is also why I am optimistic about him. Although both projection and ball holding require practice, and may not take a season to see results, but on the defensive end, I think Prosper should be able to contribute immediately, even if it is not a starting level, but should also be able to play the task of defensive lock on the flanks, as long as you can practice an offensive skill, whether it is shooting or cutting, I think the Lone Ranger draft is very profitable.
This side is mainly for the first round of a few rookies who are paying attention, their own subjective evaluation, is their own rather irresponsible first-round rookie evaluation, I hope that the rookies I am optimistic about can seize the opportunity to become popular in the league, and I hope that those rookies I am not optimistic about can hit me in the face with actual performance.