【Analysis】2023 NBA Summer League: Chet Holmgren of the Thunder

What did we see from the first game of Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren since last summer?

Holmgren, the second overall pick in the 2022 draft, missed his first NBA season due to Reese Frank's injury while playing at Crawsover Pro-Am in August. After 10 months of rehabilitation, Holmgren returned to the field and played two more games in the Salt Lake City Summer League and two more games at the NBA 2K24 Summer League in Las Vegas.

During that time, Holmgren averaged a double-double (19.8 points and 9.8 rebounds) while averaging 3.7 blocks per game. In the three games he's played, we've seen his three-point shooting percentage (1 of 11) and 15 turnovers.

Since we saw Holmgren on the pitch a year ago, what has changed besides the beard? Let's break down Holmgren's performance and what that means for Oklahoma City, joining the rising team that scored 40 wins and 42 wins in his absence last season.

Place the ball on the ground

Like this year's champion Victor Venbanyama (who played against him in the 2021 FIBA U19 Championship), Holmgren distinguishes himself from other centers by virtue of his ability to handle the ball.

Throughout the summer, Holmgren successfully dribbled from behind the three-point line to the basket — something few centers can easily do. In Salt Lake City's game against host Utah Jazz, he feinted defensive player Mika Porter above the three-point line and broke through him before completing a smooth left-handed layup.

I also enjoyed the game in Vegas vs the Dallas Mavericks where Holmgren caught the ball on the left wing above the three-point line and tricked dribblers into passing the ball. Holmgren enters the paint zone and loses his balance during the game.

Holmgren's key is to avoid the defensive crowd, who can take advantage of the height at which he dribbles off the ground. He was stripped naked several times this summer and pointed out to reporters in Salt Lake City that it was an area for improvement.

"I have to recognize that as soon as possible and understand how to get rid of the ball," Holmgren said, "playing on the opposite side, finding a way to do something besides breaking through two people." ”

Shooting sluggishness

In order for Holmgren to maximize his ability to fight hard presses, he must have defenders honest about his shots. This was the biggest negative impact of Holmgren's first summer to the second summer. He made four three-pointers in his opening game in Salt Lake City 2022 and made eight three-pointers in five games. Holmgren has only played outside the three-point line once this summer.

I've often found that accuracy in long-range shots is the last thing for players who have been out for longer periods of time due to injury. Holmgren admits shooting is the biggest challenge.

"You can't really change the pace of the game without playing," Holmgren said after his first game this summer. "It's something I'm still getting used to, but I feel like it's moving forward."

In particular, I'd like to see Holmgren focused on restoring his shooting base to where it was a year ago. Watching him shoot from outside the three-point line, he feels less balanced and leans more toward the basket than straight up.

Luckily, the Thunder have one of the league's most famous shooting teachers, former San Antonio Spurs assistant coach Chip Engrande, who should help Holmgren recalibrate. Holmgren will spend the rest of the summer in the gym trying to get back in shape. He is from Gonzaga, where he has a shorter NCAA three-point line and is shooting 39 percent.

The combination of shooting and passing should allow Holmgren to play power forward in Oklahoma City at times, but it will make the Thunder's offense especially dangerous when the Thunder's five-man man with him as a center is out. Alexei Pokusevsky and Eugene Omorui took on that role last season, but Holmgren has dramatically improved defensively over these players.

Strengthen the work of the Board of Directors

The area where Holmgren has improved statistically the most compared to last summer is in rebounding. He had a double-double in four games and just one rebound in the other two, averaging 9.8 rebounds per game, compared to 8.4 in summer league a year earlier.

Holmgren may sometimes benefit from a match against 2022 Oklahoma City second-round pick Jaelin Williams. In Holmgren's absence, Williams started 36 games as a rookie. According to NBA Advanced Stats tracking, only two of the players who played at least 500 minutes last season (Isaiah Hartenstein and Larry Nance Jr.) surpassed Williams' 2.8 defensive shots per 36 minutes.

Beyond that, while Holmgren remains one of the skinniest players in the league, he's clearly gained strength over the past year. This helps him maintain his interior rebounding position against big opponents like Kenneth Lofton Jr. Memphis Grizzlies and Dallas Lotto show Derek Lively II.

Holmgren's ability to control rebounds is especially important for the Thunder. Oklahoma City ranked 29th in the NBA in defensive rebounding last season and regularly featured Ludot and Jalen Williams as titular forwards in the four-guard lineup. Rebounding is by far the biggest weakness of the average defense.

No matter how long Holmgren is out, his ability to improve Oklahoma City's basket protection is unquestionable. He has 14 blocks in four games, slightly above last summer's average of 2.8 blocks. If Holmgren can also help the Thunder bounce back better, then this team has a chance to become a top-10 defensive team in the league and potentially move into that range offensively as well.

On Wednesday, Caesars Sportsbook released the 2023-24 season opening win total. With Holmgren's return, Oklahoma City has a record of 43.5 wins, tied for sixth in the Western Conference with the Los Angeles Lakers, who reached the divisional finals a year ago.

This offseason's modest move to use salary space for Kentucky guard Carson Wallace to promote in the NBA draft and add second-round picks suggests the Thunder are still slowly building around a young core that also includes NBA All-NBA draft Shay Kyrgyz-Alexander. Still, a healthy Holmgren would make Oklahoma City a favorite to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.