preface
The 2026 World Cup will be expanded to 48 teams, which also gives many teams the opportunity to see their hope of qualifying for the World Qualifiers. The format of the World Qualifiers on all continents has also been reformed. The biggest change is undoubtedly the World Qualifiers in Asia and Africa. However, compared to the subtraction of the African zone, the complex format has become simpler, and the Asian zone has made the format more complicated, and even many fans have not understood the format of the Asian qualifiers.
The round of 36 after the game
In the first phase of the Asian qualifiers, the bottom 18 teams will face off against each other to select 9 teams. These 9 teams will join the top 27 teams in the Asian Zone to form the final 36 of the Asian Zone. Because the national football team ranks 11th in Asia. Therefore, the Chinese team will directly advance to the round of 36 without having to participate in the first stage of the Asian qualifiers.
In fact, the format of this round of 36 has also gone through several rounds of games. The previous two Asian qualifiers have been based on a 40-12 format. Out of 46 teams in Asia, 40 teams were selected to compete in the Top 40 competition. The 40 teams were drawn in 8 groups, with the first place in the 8 groups plus the four best finishes advancing to the second stage of the group stage. This also led to the fact that the national football team needed to rely on the help of all Asia to catch the last train of the round of 12 in 2018.
In this tournament format, the AFC has proposed two sets of plans. One set is the 36 round of 36 that everyone sees now divided into 9 groups, each group has 4 teams. However, there were also proposals for 46 teams to be divided into 9 groups, and the top two in the group were finally qualified. However, because the level of Asian ranked national teams is really unbearable, the quality of the game will be greatly reduced, and one more team per group will increase the cost of participation for some teams. Therefore, the AFC decided to pass a round of screening and determine 36 teams.
The national football team is placed in 2nd gear, and the draw group is very important
Because it ranks 11th in Asia, the national football team will be placed in the second tier in this World Preliminary Draw draw. However, in the draw, because there are many groups, it also leads to a big difference in the level of teams of the same grade.
Originally, the development of Asian football was very uneven. In addition, there are many groups this time, and there are many teams of the same grade, so it also causes a huge difference in the level of teams of the same grade. For example, in the first bracket, Japan, which ranked first in Asia, and Oman, who ranked 9th in Asia, were not in the same bracket at all. The third bracket includes both Lebanon, which reached the last round of 12, and teams such as the Philippines and Turkmenistan that did not reach the Asian Cup.
And the strongest team in the fourth bracket may be Indonesia. They are currently recruiting good players all over the world. Many of the players who play in the Dutch league have chosen to represent the Indonesian national team.
In fact, many old fans can still analyze some clues based on the AFC draws in the World Preliminary Round and the Asian Cup in recent years. If the national football team can join Qatar in the World Preliminary Draw draw, it is undoubtedly a good choice. As the "biological son" of the AFC, he will naturally receive some special care. Outsiders like Australia have met Jordan for two consecutive World Qualifiers. It's definitely more than just a coincidence. And Southeast Asian teams are in the same group for two consecutive Top 40 tournaments, and it's not just luck. Guaranteeing at least one Southeast Asian team to reach the round of 18 could also allow a similar draw to be repeated in this World Qualifier.
If it is the grouping in the figure above, is the probability of the national football team qualifying? (The fourth gear team is still decided, and it was not added during the simulation)
The round of 18 simulates the draw, so divided into national football
The round of 36 is relatively not that difficult. If the national football team really unfortunately draws Japan in the first gear, Thailand/Lebanon in the third gear and Indonesia in the last set, it is not completely impossible to play. Of course, the relatively easy group is certainly something fans would like to see. If you continue the simulation according to the group situation above. Japan, South Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Australia all have no problem passing the test. And Thailand also has hope to fight with the second tier of the group. Tajikistan counterattacked India and also successfully qualified for the round of 18. So how will the group stage be drawn?
At the current level, Australia would squeeze South Korea out in first gear. But because there is still a long time left in the draw, it is difficult to say which of these two teams can enter first gear and who will fall to second gear. If South Korea is in the second bracket, Iran in the round of 18 is already arranged. That's the best part of the Asian World Qualifiers. Since the 2010 World Qualifiers, South Korea has met Iran in every group. And Australia runs into Japan every time. This has almost become a reserved program for the AFC.
In the round of 18, the binnings changed. The Chinese team will participate in the draw as the fourth tier according to the current ranking. If you draw such a relatively weak group, what do you think is the probability of the national football team qualifying directly? Will it still lose to Vietnam?
The play-off stage becomes more complicated, with a neutral venue to determine the winner
In the previous Asian qualifiers, the play-off stage format was relatively simple, and the two teams in the third place in the group played directly, and the winner would represent Asia in the continental play-offs. In the last two World Cups, Australia has snatched the fifth ticket for Asia.
However, in this World Preliminary Tournament, the AFC always gives people a bad feeling of mathematics in terms of rules. There are 8.5 places in Asia. But the final stage of the AFC grouping did not choose the quotient of 8. The relatively reasonable arrangement in the final stage is naturally 4 groups, or 8 groups directly.
But both ways come with some problems. If there are 4 groups with 4 teams in each group, obviously there will be 2 fewer places in the final stage, and the teams in each group will also play 4 fewer games, which is not conducive to the commercial development of the AFC. And if you are directly divided into 8 groups, there may be no need to play in four stages, and the AFC cannot draw more lots, which is naturally not good.
If you follow the above grouping, the top 2 of the 3 groups in the Asian Zone Round of 18 will get 6 places to enter the World Cup. The third and fourth places in the group will play a group play-off.
If grouped in this way, does the national football team hope big? The first of the two groups will go straight to the World Cup. The second place in the group will play the final play-offs and get the opportunity to represent Asia in the continental play-offs. Of course, this intercontinental play-off has little hope because of its many strengths. Or to fight for a direct quota to be realistic.