Lakers Free Market Operation Rating - Clear goals, spend small money to do big things

The Lakers' offseason operations have basically fallen into place, so let's give the Lakers a score on their current free market operations.

(The score will include four perspectives: player ability, fitness, contract cost performance, and operation ideas.) ）

Rating: B+

Before the free agent market opened, the Lakers chose to give up Beasley and Bamba to get a full middle class, which was eventually used for Gabe Vincent - which may have made some Lakers fans a little unhappy, let me explain this signing.

First of all, many people's dissatisfaction with this signing may come from the fact that Vincent is a defender, he is only 188cm tall, and for some friends who are not veteran fans, the name is not so "thunderous".

But the fact is that if you can accept the Lakers signing Bruce Brown with a mid-range audience, then the Lakers should be able to accept at least 80% with a mid-range signing of Songt.

We need to figure out what Bruce Brown and Vincent are here to do.

By pursuing these two, the Lakers are essentially pursuing a (larger) backup guard who replaces Schroder, and preferably someone who can replace Russell in the "finishing five" if necessary.

Although the height difference between Brown and Vincent is 5cm, they are essentially two-way guards - Brown does have some "pseudo-forward" attributes, but from the data point of view, Bruce Brown spends 63.8% of his regular season on opposite guards and 60.8% of his time in the playoffs against guards; Vincent spent 65.2 percent of the regular season against guards and 63 percent of the playoffs against guards — and there wasn't that much of a gap between them.

Of course, Brown's wrong defense ability is much stronger, but in fact, Vincent also has the best wrong defense ability among point guards - the effect of his defense against Brown in the first three games of the Eastern Conference finals should be impressed by anyone who has seen it.

In fact, the Lakers now have no shortage of big-size forward opponents — Van der Biao, Hachimura, including "Playoff LeBron" can do the job. What they really lack right now is a backcourt leader against big-sized guards (like Murray in the playoffs and Mitchell in the regular season) — and in that sense, the gap between Vincent and Brown is smaller.

If you've seen Vincent play, you know – Vincent is a true defender with strong defensive ability.

Specific game segment analysis, let's wait for a separate player analysis, let's start with some data:

According to the most convincing high-level data in the industry, EPM shows that Vincent's DEPM (defensive influence) in the past two seasons is +0.6 and +0.7, more than 77-78% of players in the league in the same position. (above Bruce Brown, Brown DEPM+0.6)

According to the NBA's official website data: in the regular season, Vincent can limit the opponent's points per round to 0.89 points when defending the ball (compared to 0.97 points per round when Bruce Brown is defending); and when Vincent defends the hand-offense, he can limit the opponent's points per round to 0.74 points (Bruce Brown's opponent 1.00 points per round) - whether in the regular season or the playoffs, Vincent is better than Brown in both the regular season and the playoffs.

In the second round of the playoffs, he was a player for Heat main guard Jaylen Brunson, and when he played against Brunson, Brunson was limited to 15-of-36 shooting for just 41.7 percent; In the regular season, he limited Trae Young to 4-of-12 shooting, shooting just 33%; Limit VanVleet to 3-of-14 shooting 21.7 percent...

Hear what others in the Heat have to say about Vincent's defense:

Lowry: "He defended Trae Young very well. Although you can't completely stop Young from scoring, the effort and ability shown by Vincent is impressive. ”

Butler: "Gabe played for us like this all year, not only did he shoot threes, he went into the box to create opportunities for his teammates, he was very annoying on the defensive end, no matter who played against him, it would be tough. He never flinches and we all respect that and love him for it. ”

Spoelstra: "I mean, he's been doing that since last playoff, he's really good at that, he's a god catcher [a player in rugby who is particularly good at scrums], and that's his honor. ”

Of course, data is not everything, but we can also see from these key figures and evaluations that Vincent is a trustworthy defender - I hear some people compare Kendrick Nunn to him? But in fact, Nunn has not come close to Vincent's defensive performance in these two seasons at any point in his entire career, and it can even be said that the gap between the two is huge.

(And note that while Nunn also played brilliantly in the Finals, he was actually on the brink of rotation before Dragic's injury that year, averaging just 15.9 minutes and 6.1 points per game, which is not the same as Vincent's starting point guard for the entire playoffs this year and may be the third or fourth best player on the Heat.) ）

Let's talk about offense.

In fact, Vincent is a player with a good balance of off-ball and on-the-ball abilities.

He has three threats (breakaway, mid-range, three-pointer) when on the ball, and is also a threatening shooter when off the ball.

In terms of skill set, compared with Bruce Brown, who has an assist rate of up to 60%, Vincent has stronger ball holding ability and independent offensive ability; And compared to the Lakers' previous backup point guard Schroder, Vincent has a better catch-and-shoot ability.

When he first came to the Heat, Vincent was given the position of "shooter" (from the extranet evaluation), but this did not translate to the NBA in the first two years, and after improving his shots in the past two seasons, Vincent's shooting skills began to slowly show. (You can feel his shooter genes from his free-throw percentage and shots.)

In this season's playoffs, Vincent delivered a dazzling offensive performance, scoring more than 20 points in five games, averaging 12.7 points and 3.5 assists per game, shooting 37.8% from three-point range, including 44.6% from three-point range, and averaging 17.5 points per game and 50% three-point shooting in the first four games of the Eastern Conference Finals, which can be said to be the key player to help the Heat eliminate the Green Army.

Vincent's playoff performance is certainly a big reason for the Lakers to sign him, but whether Vincent can sustain his offensive performance in this year's playoffs is in question.

We must remind everyone that from the perspective of the entire career, this year's playoffs are undoubtedly Vincent's "projection year".

His improvement in shooting percentage is exaggerated — for example, his three-point shooting percentage is up 10 percentage points from the regular season — and while he can shoot, it's still exaggerated. (PS: But even if he drops by 10%, his shooting percentage is higher than Schroeder...)

The playoffs are a stage for small samples, and a huge boost under a small sample usually means a risk of pullback. And even in the playoff "small sample"Chinese Sent's performance has been inconsistent — corresponding to 20+ points in five games and an average of 12.7 points per game, Vincent has scored just single digits in nine simultaneous playoff games — which accounts for 40% of his playoff appearances.

This is not a low ratio.

This means that Vincent is a player with the "nerve knife" attribute.

When he feels good, he's like a defensive Tyler Hiro, and when he's bad, he's just a small, defensively active defender.

How well he can maintain the offensive level of this year's playoffs next season will largely determine whether the Lakers' signing is cost-effective.

(In contrast, Brown, who is excellent off the ball, is much more consistent in this regard, which is why he is twice as expensive as Vincent)

The above is a brief description of Vincent's player abilities.

If evaluated purely from the perspective of player ability, although Vincent is a small upgrade in size and catch-and-shoot ability compared to Schroeder, considering the difference between the middle-class contract and Schroeder's base salary contract last season, this signing is not enough to be rated B+.

In fact, what really improves the evaluation of the Lakers' signing is actually the other two Lakers' signing and the overall environment of this year's free market.

Like I said on Twitter, let's face it, the Lakers couldn't have signed Bruce Brown and Big Lopez with the middle-class exception (the market has proven it), even Lyles was above that price, and after they got Prince and Reddish at a very low value, their demand for forwards (Gordon, Dillon) also dropped - in this case, they took the best remaining guard on the market as quickly as possible, which is very wise.

Vincent isn't really strong, but he's taller, younger, and more accurate than Schroder, and that's enough — the Lakers do need a backup guard who can defend, and he's already the best guard on the market.

What more could you ask for?

Signed Torrion Prince

Rating: A

Undoubtedly beautiful signing.

Torrion Prince is a stable, rotational striker in his playing year, he has a very consistent output in the regular season, shooting more than 37.5% from three-point range in the past three seasons, and he is not the kind of pure shooter who relies entirely on "feeding the pie", but an autonomous scorer with a stronger ability to handle the ball.

He's a "playing" player, and for most of his career, his offensive ON/OFF numbers (presence/absence difference) are pretty good, which means that when he's on the court, he's always able to bring positive help to the team's offense — for example, last season, when he played, the Timberwolves scored 2.0 more points per 100 games, a figure that exceeds 73 percent of forward players in the league.

If there's anything wrong with Prince, it's probably mostly on the defensive end — he's dark and tough, but he's not actually a defensive titan, and in the Timberwolves, he's the less difficult player on the team — and he's actually more mediocre defensively than many people think of "3D."

(But of course, Prince's defense is not that unassuming level, for example, DEPM shows that his defensive impact can exceed 60% of forward players, which is significantly higher than last season's Walker and Brown)

From the perspective of compatibility with the Lakers, this is not a big drawback - the Lakers already have Vanderbilt and Hachimura two defenders corresponding to light forwards and heavy forwards, respectively, Prince came to the Lakers, more as a "microwave scorer" on the bench, improving the offensive development ability of the lineup, and the Lakers do not need him to take over too difficult matches.

His role against the Lakers should be Lonnie Walker and Malik Beasley last season - from that point of view, even this is a defensive upgrade?

Anyway, to sign Prince for 4.5 million a year, the Lakers definitely earned, to some extent, he can take on 75-80% of the role of Eric Gordon, and he is younger, taller, healthier, and only needs a third of the price of Gordon - what more can you ask for?

(And Gordon hasn't signed yet, we don't know what he's waiting for, but obviously the Lakers can't wait for him all the time.)

Pelinka did a great job.

Signed Cam Reddish

Rating: B

Regarding Cam Reddish as a player, we've talked all the way from last offseason to this offseason, and here's good news and bad news.

The good news is that this is a victory for the "wait and wait" party — last year, the Lakers had to pay at least one or more second-round rounds to get him, and now the Lakers got him with just one base salary spot.

The bad news is that Reddish hasn't shown any improvement over the past year, he's still a lottery ticket, and it's increasingly hanging out "Thank you." Two words to feel too.

Reddish's strengths and weaknesses remain similar to when we analyzed him last year.

The advantage is that he is a full-size striker, with excellent physical talent, a certain ability to match, and the projection potential to be a good shooter in terms of free throw percentage.

The downside is that despite his physical talent, he still can't translate his physical talent into a contribution on the field.

His rebounding ability is at the bottom of the league's forwards, his ball-carrying efficiency is terrible, and while he has some ability to break through with the ball, he can't create opportunities for teammates on the outside due to vision and passing problems - therefore, he is not a suitable player for the ball. (We said this last year.)

The worse part is that Reddish's efficiency hasn't improved since he switched to no-ball last season.

As a "3D" positioned player, he can't hit catch-and-shoot three-pointers, and his catch-and-shoot three-point shooting rate is only 31% in the '22-23 season, and as a no-ball player lacks a no-ball offensive skill set: almost no shots around cover, almost no hand-to-hand shooting, not very good frequency and efficiency of open cuts, and combined with his bottom-ranked rebounding ability in the league, his contribution to the team when he is off the ball is also very low - when he is on the floor, the Blazers score 8.1 points per 100 rounds..... Pretty bad numbers.

If offense doesn't work, all you can expect is defense, but in fact, while we say Reddish has some ability to match, he still hasn't transformed into a true defensive titan — Tatum shoots 5 of 10, Jaylen Brown shoots 6 of 12, Ingram shoots 5 of 8 against him — and he still can't really defend these star forwards.

It's an obvious fact that after the Blazers swapped Josh Hart for him and Seibre last season, the Blazers have become noticeably weaker — both defensively and offensively.

(The huge difference in value between the two now can also illustrate this)

Reddish still has a chance to prove himself – in fact, as long as he can grasp those three-point opportunities (38.9%) as efficiently as he did in the 21-22 season, he can largely reinvent his value.

His current situation is somewhat like Throy Brown before he came to the Lakers last season - the highlights of the former draft are gone, his position is vague, and he has only some insignificant "merits".

But we know that later under the Lakers' player development system, TBJ successfully transformed himself - the originally inconsistent three-point level was raised a notch, the originally fairly average defense became a reliable rotation level, and he became a rotation player who was at least qualified in the regular season.

Now Reddish has the opportunity to do the same.

And even if he can't do it, the Lakers don't have much to lose - they only paid a base salary to occupy the position, and the roster is no longer what it used to be, and now, the Lakers' lineup can even be said to be "overcrowded"...

Considering that LeBron and Vanderbilt have some injury concerns in their past resumes, I think the Lakers are a good choice to take Reddish with a base salary.

Signed Jax Hayes

Rating: C

The only reason I didn't play a D with this signing was because of trust in the Lakers' player scouting and development system.

We've said many times that the Lakers need a backup center — but judging by his track record, Jakos Hayes isn't the right fit.

Let's first clarify the purpose of the Lakers looking for a center:

1. They need someone who can share some of the playing time to reduce the burden.

2. They need to be prepared for a possible absence of the regular season with thick eyebrows.

Both of these requirements point to the same point - the backup center the Lakers are looking for needs to have a certain ability to support the interior alone. (At least for a certain period of time, such as 10-15 minutes or so, it cannot be said that the team will lose ten points after playing five minutes)

And how can you "support the inside line alone"?

Either you have superior offensive prowess (like Toub last season) or you have solid defensive ability (like the Suns' Biyombo).

Jax Hayes may have neither.

Let's take a look at my own Weibo yesterday.

According to CleanTheGlass data, Jakos Hayes' on/off (presence/absence difference) on both ends of the offensive and defensive ends has been terrible throughout his career — last season he scored 11.1 fewer points on the offensive end and 3.8 more on the defensive end than when he wasn't, essentially the bottom of the league's centers.

If you don't think this statistic is convincing enough, look at the difference in opponent shooting percentage between him and not present: throughout his career, when he is on the floor, the opponent's shooting percentage in the box has increased, and last season it even increased by as much as 3.5%, basically the league's interior crane tail level... (This means his frame is terrible)

What's more amazing is that the registered weight of Hays official website is only 100kg (although some do not fit the look), you must know that the Vembanyama weighs 105kg... If this statistic may have the problem of lagging updates, then the fine alignment statistics make Hayes irrefutable - in the 2023 season, he will only spend 12% of all counterpoints against the center?!

One thing: if you're good at topping up centers, your coach won't let you shy away from it. And when the avoidance is so thorough... See for yourself. ”

For now, Jakos Hayes looks very unreliable in both rim and interior top defense — two skills the Lakers most need from their backup center.

Although Hayes has some unique skill sets: his ability to change defenses, for example. But this ability may not be so useful for the Lakers:

The obvious fact is that if you want to play a center change defense system, then you need to have the ability to change defense in every position, not just the center position has the ability to change defense - and Russell, Vincent, Reeves on the Lakers guard line do not have the ability to change defense center. They can't change the defense system for Hays.

The Lakers' defensive system, in the final analysis, is the traditional center sinking + delay system - which is somewhat in conflict with Jax Hayes's personal characteristics.

Next, it depends on how far the Lakers' player development system can transform Hays.

(As for some people who say that the base salary is not a loss...) Well, you have a point, at least Hayes's dynamic and static talent is placed here)

Russell was renewed for 2 years and 37 million

Rating: A+

Under the market price of VanVleet 3 years 130 million, Haliburton 5 years 260 million, three-goal 5 years 260 million this year, Russell's contract is simply "cabbage price", which is of course related to this year's market, but for the Lakers they have completely earned - a year later LeBron is 39 years old, if the Lakers want to find a stronger "second star" after LeBron's contract ends, it is certainly better to sign a short contract with Russell than to sign a long contract, and the pressure of the "contract year" will also give Russell some extra motivation next season.

4 years 56 million renewal Reeves

Rating: A+

For Reeves, as long as it is either a poison contract or a blood earner, the Lakers now do not have to worry about needing to give Reeves an annual salary of nearly 40 million in two years, thanks to the Spurs.

3 years 51 million renewal of eight village bases

Rating: A-

It's a bit higher than I predicted, but a float of one or two million is perfectly acceptable given the big rise in the salary cap in the future, and it's not the contract that matters more about Hachimura, but how much he will continue the magical performance of "Hachimura in the playoffs" next season (which focuses on three-point shooting, aggression at the basket and co-defense)

Overall review

Rating: A

Overall, I'm pretty happy with the Lakers' operation this offseason, and while they didn't get a clear "ceiling increase" signing, they fully achieved the goal of "guaranteed floor" in my operational outlook — they've upgraded in depth and size while retaining the Western Conference team almost completely — and it seems like they finally understand what they really need.

In fact, friends, "guaranteed lower limit" sometimes has the effect of "raising the upper limit".