Artificial intelligence: challenges and controversies for national security

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Military applications of artificial intelligence

AI has recently taken center stage in the U.S. public policy debate. Enterprise technologists and some public officials want to announce a moratorium on AI research and development. Among their concerns is that AI's capabilities may grow faster than human controllers can understand or control.

An AI technology that rivals or surpasses autonomous consciousness in human cognition could redefine how we understand technology and humans, but there is no certainty as to whether or when such "superintelligence" will emerge. Amid uncertainty, the United States and other countries must consider the possible impact of AI on their armed forces and their war readiness or deterrence. Military theorists, strategic planners, scientists, and political leaders will face at least seven different challenges in predicting the direction of human-computer interaction in the coming decades.

First, the education and training of military professionals will experience a revolution. The historical experience of commanders will no longer be obtained only from books and articles. We will be able to "project" future commanders backwards into the AI version of the battle the captain is fighting, and retroactively turn the scene into fact, further challenging students and coaches. What used to be called "war games" will rise to higher levels of scenario building and deconstruction. Flexibility and agility will be hallmarks of successful leaders who are able to master AI-driven military planning, logistics, and operational science. Since warfare relies on a combination of firepower and maneuver supported by precision intelligence, AI systems will brew the optimal combination of kinetic strikes supported by timely intelligence and timely damage assessment. To succeed, political and military leaders must think fast, strike hard, evaluate quickly, and reassemble another punch, essentially boxing in virtual reality.

Second, human-computer interaction will transform Current AI systems reach maturity and compete or surpass human decision-making, including memory storage, flexibility, and self-awareness. Subordinate commanders will find that they are "reporting" to an AI system that is an agent for higher-level commanders who in turn will be accountable to their superiors for performance measured by an AI system. AI systems will increasingly be linked across departments, eventually squeezing everyone into one huge space. Only professional technicians and a small number of highest-ranking generals and admirals can enter. The contractor will provide AI system services for the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and other components of the Department of Defense and other national security agencies.

Third, the management of state and military intelligence will face tremendous challenges from mature AI systems. AI will make it possible to collect larger amounts of data than data already collected and stored in government servers. However, AI systems will provide superior tools for analyzing data for timely use by commanders and decision-makers. At present, decision-makers collect rich data and analyze poorly. AI may support more strategic drilldowns into large-scale databases to retrieve and collate information that could save lives or win battles. AI can also allow for faster interpretation of other information and faster insertion of relevant knowledge into the ODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, and Act) decision-making cycle. Civilian leaders in the executive branch and Congress can use AI to get a clearer picture of which agencies are performing which tasks, which secrets are worth keeping, and for how long.

Fourth, more wars will be informational. As in the past, States and terrorists want information that can be used in war and deny it to adversaries. But as AI advances, future commanders and heads of state will have a greater ability to influence the enemy's perception of reality. They will do this at two levels: by targeting senior officials responsible for setting policy, and by destabilizing public opinion in the target country.

AI and other influence tools can be used to create false images, including fictional but realistic political speeches and fabricated news reports to deceive viewers. Fake scenes of fighting massacres or terrorist attacks may be superimposed on so-called routine news reports. As AI-enhanced fake news proliferates, gullible publics could be provoked with mass demonstrations. Political leaders will be specific targets for what the Soviet Union and now Russia calls "positive measures" for strategic deception, which is enhanced by AI technology. These techniques include, but are not limited to, "reflex control" techniques, in which the enemy is persuaded to do what the opponent wants.

Fifth, AI will accelerate everything including decisions about the use of force and the use of force against specific targets. This means that in a war against a great power, the first wave of attacks may focus on space and cyber assets. A country denied access to real-time information provided by satellites for launch detection, command and control, communications, navigation and targeting will immediately be pushed back to the last century and become a military power. States must therefore protect their space-based assets, threat assessments and satellite maintenance by launching large numbers of redundant satellites, placing satellites in orbit to defend against ground-based and space-based anti-satellite weapons and developing reconnaissance rendezvous and close combat capabilities. Earth-to-space and space-to-earth communication links must be protected and encrypted.

If war does break out in the era of artificial intelligence, defense in the cyber domain can also be expected to be challenged. The great powers already have offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, and are probing each other's information systems and supporting infrastructure under "normal peacetime" conditions. In times of crisis or war, cyberattacks will accelerate and become more intrusive, potentially decoupling one or more weapons, delivery systems, or command-and-control assets from designated chains of command. Attacks on civilian infrastructure, including terrorist attacks, are already common in cyberspace, and AI systems will only make them more complex. More important than attacks on space systems, cyberattacks may not leave a clear "footprint" on the identity of the attackers.

Taking the first blow, followed by retaliation, may not be possible for troubled and time-pressed decision-makers. Instead, they must establish and authorize preset responses to attacks on information-providing "brainstem" assets, some of which will be AI-based, or at least AI-assisted. This situation poses a challenge of particular concern to nuclear deterrence. Policymakers should have enough time to consider alternatives with advisers and choose the most appropriate option when faced with a decision to support or oppose nuclear war. But the potential speed of AI-driven attacks on space and cyber assets, combined with the rising speed of kinetic strikes from hypersonic weapons, could lead leaders who fear an enemy's nuclear preemption to preemptive strikes rather than retaliate.

Sixth, if AI does advance toward an AI that is more sentient and humanoid than is currently possible, it may evolve in a direction that its creators did not fully foresee, for better or worse. AI systems can adopt their own version of emotional intelligence and value preferences. They can then collaborate across borders to promote outcomes they prefer in public policy. For example, a sentient AI system can decide that nuclear disarmament is a sine qua non for the survival of a viable civilization, working to promote disarmament arguments despite instructions from its national policymakers. They may also cooperate to discredit the argument for nuclear deterrence and insert a digital wrench in a software device for nuclear readiness. A more ambitious AI agenda that represents human rights and opposes authoritarian governments is not unthinkable. After all, the creators of AI systems might include focused globalists who see existing states as obsolete relics of less advanced civilizations. On the other hand, authoritarian governments are already using AI systems to suppress individual freedoms, including the right to freedom of expression and peaceful anti-government protests. AI can help identify and isolate "enemies of the state" through the monitoring of private and public behavior. Advanced AI could make mass repression easier and more effective than history's worst dictators imagined.

Seventh, more mature AI infrastructure will require more education and training for public officials, not only in terms of technology, but also in terms of the relationship between public policy and human values. No AI, no matter how clever it may be by its own standards, can be entrusted with replacing the decisions made by responsible decision-makers with at least a decent background in the arts and humanities. Leave public policy decisions about AI to people who are captivated by the latest gadgets and gaming systems, but lack understanding of philosophy, music, literature, religion, art, and history will be ruled by chattering neo-narcissists with unprecedented political power.

Public policies affecting the population at large should not become the purview of the self-appointed elite of politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, and media barons; It should also be bound by the participation of a broad civic base. Without the adult oversight provided by a truly democratic decision-making process, elites would have created and recreated their own rights as local privileges, even if that destroyed their own societies.

Advances in artificial intelligence and other technologies have only increased public expectations for a swift and decisive resolution of war. There is no doubt that artificial intelligence and other technologies can improve the performance of military power in many ways, but there is no substitute for military power, whose training and experience are based not only on military laws, but also on better aspects of culture and history. Americans, including their military, have tweaked new technologies in the past to put them to good use without allowing the technological tail to wag dogs of values. AI presents a unique challenge in this regard, but it is not an insurmountable challenge if it is addressed immediately.