Market analysis for June 19, 2023
【Short-term trend】CSI 300 Index: Upward
National Securities 2000 Index: Upward
【Mid-line trend】CSI 300 Index: Upward
National Securities 2000 Index: Upward
【Long-term trend】CSI 300 Index: Upward
National Securities 2000 Index: Upward
【Text】
Today, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 17 points, the two markets traded 1.1 trillion, and there were 2,000 red markets.
TMT led the rally across the board.
The net outflow to the north was 1.4 billion.
Point of view:
1. The broader market: TMT is the absolute main line, and it begins to have a siphon effect on other sectors. Observe whether this extreme focus continues.
2. Main line: TMT.
Figure 1, Communication Equipment Index. The second wave began in mid-May, and in about a month, the increase reached 43%. Proper Lord's Ascension Wave.
This sector is the upstream of the AI industry chain, and the direction where performance is most likely to break out, is naturally focused by the market.
It's hot, but the movement is healthy.
Stay tuned in the short term.
Figure 2, in the list of sector gainers, other TMT sectors have just risen.
The hype model refers to the semiconductor industry chain in 2019.
That year, the semiconductor index speculated for three consecutive years, and the index rose from 800 points to 4,000 points, which can be called the main bull market.
This year's artificial intelligence index is very likely to copy the hype model of that year and make an AI bubble.
Figure 3, Main Track. The five main lines, the turnover accounted for 37%. Except for the communication equipment main line that is a bit climax, everything else is in the trend.
The main line sector is the crystallization of the extreme focus of chips and funds.
Once formed, it has a self-reinforcing effect.
Observe the long and short game and wait for the chips to loosen.
Figure 4, Main line observation pool. The main line is clear, communication equipment, software services rise and fall, but they are not peak signals.
Short-termers don't need to think too much and just follow the trend.
The number of industry gainers fell back as funds from other sectors were sucked into TMT.
This is a warning to the main line of TMT.
If there is an extreme killing situation in other sectors of the market, you should be careful.
Tips: The stock market is very risky, my views are for reference only, please make your own decisions!
Remarks: Short, medium and long lines, corresponding to the slope direction of the 5-day, 5-week, and 5-month lines respectively; CSI 300 and China National Securities 2000 correspond to the style of large and small tickets.
Trading day must change! This is my 1742nd original article, welcome to like, follow, and forward.