preface
Why does Blinken's visit to China keep reiterating guardrails?
Because China has one unique advantage, enough to offset all the advantages of the United States.
This gives the United States the advantage in skirmishes and China in major conflicts.
Understand all this, and you will be transparent.
After many twists and turns, Blinken finally came, but he came coldly.
At the pick-up scene at about 7:30 a.m. on June 18, there was no applause, no red carpet, no military music, as the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit China after Biden took office.
It's a bit embarrassing to have such a deserted scene.
Embarrassed, why?
A friend came and had good wine, this secretary of state, who did not know what the attitude was, came, or don't go to the bar first?
To deal with the arrogant and domineering Americans, we should use such an attitude to communicate, so that they understand that being high above will not work in China.
Behind the unworkable, goodwill should not be abused, and the country of etiquette also has a temper: always engage in coercion, threats, and say "based on strength and status" at every turn, you don't come.
in Blinken
This scene made Americans realize for the first time: it is impossible not to show some sincerity.
But even so, the American carrot and stick are still waving.
Before Blinken's foreign visit, the US media Bloomberg also published a commentary article entitled "China Better Listen to What Blinken Must Say" on the 16th.
The article uses indiscriminate language throughout to accuse China of making mistakes and warn that China will not gain an advantage in competition with the United States.
I don't know where this confidence comes from?
In other words, you took the initiative to ask for dialogue, right?
(Sanctions)
So why do you do this before the visit?
It is nothing more than telling China to obediently cooperate in the establishment of the so-called "guardrail", to be pragmatic and low-key, because if you really accidentally insert a gun and go off, it is China that suffers.
What's more, the United States still has countless younger brothers who can expand economic war with China and isolate China with gangs and factions while threatening militarily.
In a word: the advantage is in me.
Uh-huh, this is so familiar, it seems that in the movie "Armageddon", someone also said such a line: 800,000 versus 600,000, the advantage is in me!
In fact, the aggressiveness of one side is precisely the embodiment of bluffing.
In addition to emboldening yourself, it is also for allies to see, and it is also to increase their so-called chips at the negotiating table.
Therefore, the United States is not a faction: Xiang Zhuang dancing the sword, intended to "guardrail".
The core meaning of this "guardrail" is: I can jam your neck, you can block it in economic warfare, science and technology warfare, public opinion warfare, and gangs, but you can't lift the table.
This is the ultimate goal of the United States, to do whatever it wants on the premise of putting an end to direct conflict and confrontation.
Well, it really has an American paradigm, and it also shows how weak the United States is.
Why is the heart weak? Because today's United States is not comparable to the United States, which dominated the world after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Instead of becoming cute, it doesn't become fair, it becomes crazy and sensitive.
Fanning the flames and creating chaos around the world, constantly breaking the so-called rules set by itself, and making the world suffer from it.
Why not crazy overdraft credibility?
As a result, 11 Latin American countries in the backyard, led by Brazil, seek de-dollarization, hoping to get rid of the fate of being squeezed.
As a result, the Middle Eastern powers Saudi Arabia and Iran did not talk about reconciliation, and also formed a naval alliance, and the other day also made it clear that they did not agree with Blinken.
From this point of view, it is also possible that this visit will be a new stage of turmoil in the world.
Because Sino-US relations cannot go back, even if there is a détente, it is based on the strategy and needs of the phased détente.
All-round competition is the main line.
The end result is either the loss of U.S. hegemony or our return to where we were.
At this time, the United States is eager to set up the so-called "guardrail", and there is a reason.
It is nothing more than the fear that a frontal conflict between the two major powers will break out and they will suffer losses.
Judging from the current engagement policy, although there are many contradictions between the two countries, they are still talking, which also means that they both have the will to avoid conflicts.
But times are constantly changing.
This constant change has contributed to the possibility of conflict between the two countries, and the key point is the attitude of the United States.
The Americans, who fanned the flames in Ukraine, also arched the fire one after another in the Asia-Pacific region.
Then here's a problem.
If the attitude remains unchanged, the problem cannot be solved, and the trend of Sino-US relations will not get better.
(Financial Crisis)
What does the future hold?
Will the United States use a war to divert contradictions and save the defeat because of its own financial problems?
Engage in a dead and then resurrection?
Don't underestimate the American mind, there are possibilities.
Because the financial problems of the United States are deep in the marrow, they are not covered up by printing money to whitewash the peace.
Realistically, the U.S. financial system has long been on a cliff.
Even Americans themselves say that we live on credit cards (national debt), which is self-evident and sober.
Sober Americans on earth understand.
Will the financial tsunami surpass the Great Depression of 1929 and the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008?
(Financial Tsunami)
How to solve it?
Look at the United States' approach to Russia after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Western allies froze more than $300 billion of Russian assets, nominally for the reconstruction of Ukraine, but how to use this money?
It is not yet the United States that has the final say.
With this experience, the United States will provoke provocations in the Taiwan Strait and trigger conflicts by breaking through China's red lines.
Then, under the pretext of conflict, China and the United States debt were written off altogether, and also used financial advantages to confiscate our overseas assets.
Then use the last domineering to force allies to cooperate and go into battle together.
This Jedi offensive that puffed up Yu Yong, compared with the implosion of the dollar, why is it not an option?
(Adventure is also one of the options)
What is the reason behind this choice?
However, in the long run, from the perspective of the trend, from the perspective of the current situation, Americans cannot afford to wait, cannot wait, and cannot wait.
Although China's economy also has problems, the overall trend is good, and it is relatively stable compared with the United States, which is playing hormone stimulation.
This means that if it is delayed, when China's nominal GDP also exceeds that of the United States, the confidence of American allies will be reduced, and the team will be even more difficult to bring.
That's time to my benefit.
But it's also a risk.
The United States has the will to wage war at a desperate rate.
But if a frontal conflict is really to break out, the possibility is not high.
Because conflicts, especially between the world's most powerful countries, are never something that can be done in today's international situation.
It is a system reshaping project involving five dimensions: politics, economy, science and technology, diplomacy, and culture.
It's something that can't be done easily.
Politics needs excuses, economic repression, scientific and technological blockades, diplomacy requires a united front, and even cultural public opinion needs to create momentum.
This preparation is for a bipolar country like the United States, which is torn apart culturally, politically, and economically, unless it is superhuman.
China is not Afghanistan, Iraq, Panama, Serbia.
It's a comprehensive industrial system.
First-class governance.
The morale of the people is in order.
A country that can burst into great combat power at any time.
As for fighting a conventional war, China, which really wants to be mobilized, can sweep away all cattle, ghosts, snakes, and gods.
The bottom line of all this is in the manufacturing industry.
To manufacture warships, we are the first in the world in shipbuilding.
To build tanks, we are the first in the world in the automotive industry.
By analogy, the world's first in countless industrial and manufacturing categories means that China is a country comparable to or stronger than the United States in World War I and World War II.
On the other hand, the United States? Even if it takes a few years to reindustrialize, the problem of industrial hollowing is still serious, and the industrial system is not complete.
In terms of productivity, there is only a dispute between China and the world.
There is no Sino-US dispute.
Although hard power such as industrial manufacturing has advantages, the United States still has three major advantages over China.
First of all: technological advantages, of course.
Second: relying on the superiority of naval hegemony in resource control.
Finally: based on the advantage of allies under the world trading system.
But this advantage, if you really want to say, is also in flux all the time.
(Competition)
First of all, look at the advantages of science and technology,
In terms of science and technology, the United States is second to none and the world's number one, because they have money printing machines to attract world talents, and have a sound scientific research system and academic atmosphere.
This is all the reason for America's technological superiority.
Where is the source? The answer is a lot of money under the hegemony of the dollar.
But can't we really deal with all this?
The development practice of the past 20 years tells us that although China's science and technology lag behind the United States, the industrial landing and re-creation of science and technology are much stronger than those of the United States.
Why? Because a sound industrial system and a huge market scale can enable scientific and technological innovation, cultivate trial and error in the supporting mature industrial system and large market, and innovate.
The weakness of the US industrial system and scale has made their scientific and technological advantages delayed in the industrial chain.
Isn't this misplaced competition?
After the dislocation competition, Chinese science and technology people who grow in learning, improve in trial and error, and innovate after industrialization have reaped the fruitful fruits of science and technology with the efforts of following closely step by step.
This fruit, although there is a gap in scientific and technological weapons, is not a generational gap like the "US-Russia dispute".
This is reflected in the military, that is, the combat effectiveness is equal, so this situation, with China's strong manufacturing industry?
Let me ask, without nuclear weapons, does the United States dare to fight?
(Who is afraid of whom)
Second: resource control advantage.
This is a natural advantage of the established world hegemon.
Why is there a world hegemon? Because they have maritime supremacy, control key trade nodes through powerful navies, and have the dominance of world trade.
Based on this, the so-called rule-making power is obtained.
Wasn't Britain the same at the time, controlling colonial output and achieving the status of the world's factory?
(Anglo-American lineage)
The same is true of the United States now, using control of trade nodes, setting trade rules, and economically colonizing the world while strengthening the control and mobilization of key resources.
But this advantage of the United States, we are not helpless.
The reason is also simple.
Whose resources are there? The answer is elsewhere.
With whom do they do business, with their demands and aspirations, even if the United States is strong, can it be suppressed for a while, can it be suppressed for a lifetime? The United States cannot bear the anger of the public, and this is one of them.
China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative is all promoted along the traditional Eurasian continent, as long as this initiative continues to deepen, the United States, which controls the seas, dare to go ashore? The PLA does not kill you, I have the American surname, this is the second.
Finally, who is the largest resource country in the world? The answer is Russia, which lacks nothing and is not right with the United States.
If there is a conflict between China and the United States, what do you think Russia will do? It wants to lose both, and by the way, clean up small Japan, so that it will not break through strategically, this is the game theory under the big triangle, this is the third.
After one, two, three, the second advantage of the United States, resource control, disappears and becomes invisible.
(Grand Triangular Relationship)
So what about the last advantage, based on the advantage of allies under the world trading system?
Realistically speaking, this is the biggest variable, and it is also the focus of competition between the two sides now.
It is an old hegemon, relying on a strong style, tigers and tigers.
Or a new powerhouse, relying on harmony and win-win, dragons soar thousands of miles.
The answer lies in a strong style and win-win harmony.
Let the United States read their "developed country economy", the sum of the population of all developed countries in the world is more than 1 billion people, counting the radiation population of up to 2 billion.
Among them, in addition to the die-hard Five Eyes Alliance, how many really follow the United States? Put a question mark.
Understand all this, looking at China, which "sings the song of the developing countries", those countries that are exploited in the existing world rules, urgently need industrialization, and urgently need development.
Aren't their 60-ton population and more than 150 countries and regions our friends and potential friends who can unite the front?
They need to develop, and it is inevitable that our infrastructure will go to sea.
They need to industrialize, and our industrial spillover is also feasible in the division of labor.
Their incomes have increased, and won't there be a market for our high-quality and low-cost goods?
Isn't this the new pattern of the world under harmonious thinking?
This pattern, compared with the United States, which only cares about developed countries and ignores developing countries, is actually a higher judgment.
Based on this, looking at today.
What exactly should we do most?
The answer is to continue to develop after fighting without breaking.
Because time is in me, as long as it develops, we can naturally break the situation, unless the United States takes risks and does messing around, otherwise we will accompany it crazy.
That's what's the hardest thing about America right now.
If you want to fight, you can't figure it out.
Do not fight, slow death.
There is also a financial nuclear bomb in the middle that will explode if it is not done well.
They will be hysterical and provoked.
And this is also the way the United States thinks.
I don't have a head-on conflict with you, so Blinken's visit to set up a "guardrail" is the first goal.
But if China and the United States do not clash head-on, does not mean that there is no possibility of local conflicts and proxy wars?
The United States needs a local conflict and a proxy war.
In addition to slowing down China's development, the purpose is also to use this conflict and proxy war to repeat the idea of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict against Russia.
As long as a conflict occurs, the United States can rely on its advantages in various apps and cultural influence to widely mobilize public opinion and smear us.
Use the method of dealing with Russia, win allies to act together, and finally use the method of forcible seizure and murder with a knife to achieve ulterior goals.
(Birds are not good at the beginning)
But this is also a difficult thing to do, because the first bird is never good, and everyone is not stupid.
It's okay to cooperate on the surface, really have to work hard? Who goes?
In the future, the situation will definitely continue to be so deadlocked.
There will be no hot war, cold war cut sausages.
As for how we respond?
Grandpa Mao has long given the answer: you hit yours, I hit mine.
Your American rhythm is your American rhythm, it has nothing to do with me, our rhythm is: of course it is best not to fight, really have to keep arching the fire, you can't stop it, you Americans think about the consequences yourself.
The consequences of this are not limited to the first island chain where the Taiwan Strait, Japan, and the South China Sea are located, and if it is not done, it will burn to the second island chain of Guam and even the third island chain of Hawaii.
Because ah: Chinese is not easy to mess with, and it is difficult to provoke it.
Therefore, the Americans play small, it still has an advantage.
Because many younger brothers see that the danger is not great, they will cooperate.
But if you really want to fight, China, which has almost unlimited manufacturing capacity, can really beat the United States very badly.
Unless they don't think about the whole world, or even the survival of humanity, they won't win the war.
Of course, this is just talk, because war is a bad thing after all.
Every time I see the experience of soldiers on both sides in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, many people will not feel it, I am really sad, because there are elders in my family who have experienced the war. (Counterattack against Vietnam)
Therefore, be prepared for both, look at the problem from the perspective of development, attribute everything to the economy instead of war, and let the economy continue to develop, until Americans find that no matter how big or small, it is "shaking the big tree, ridiculous and not self-measured" Americans will be completely honest.
(Development is the last word)
Finally, return to Blinken's mission to China and our generation.
How much sincerity does Blinken, who is counting on risk management, have?
It is both necessary and wanted, in fact, this does not affect our attitude, that is, always be ready.
Voiceover for managing risk: The United States cannot withstand a full-scale conflict, but it expects to set up security barriers in the game, so that one will not accidentally burn jade.
Again, we don't want that, but we won't back down if the rain is about to turn rough.
30 years generation.
The destiny of the generation that was founded in 1949 was to fight to get China back on its feet.
The fate of the second generation born after the founding of the People's Republic of China is to build and strengthen the motherland with their own struggle.
Now, now.
What is the fate of our third generation? The answer is to forge ahead in rough times.
Rush over, rush over, rush over, smooth road ahead...
Come on, my country!
Come on, peers...
Peace is always after the rain and the wind blows...