Blinken's visit to China is to sell Taiwan for a good price, and Ren'ai Jiao is just a bonus to this deal

Blinken's initiative to visit China is to sell Taiwan for a good price, and Ren'ai Jiao is just a bonus to this deal

Wen \ Ding Yanhao - Trusted financial businessman, Kexin assets

First, the United States has been completely caught in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict

At present, the world is in a critical period of pattern reconstruction, there is a countercurrent lurking under the illusory appearance, on the surface, the national strength and international influence of the United States are still in the first place in the world, but the fact is that the United States is too deeply injured and its control over the world is declining

Against this realistic background, various forces that were once suppressed by the United States have dared to jump out to protect their own interests and resist the United States, and the traditional allies of the United States have also begun to sell at prices in various global power groups, looking for opportunities to arbitrage, rather than being one-sided only to the United States

However, it is undeniable that the United States still has the strength to cause a fundamental impact on any country, and in this critical period, Russia bore the brunt and completely stood on the opposite side of the United States, greatly containing and consuming the global attention of the United States

Now that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has become normal and scorching, with the direct and indirect support of China, India and Iran, Russia has the strength to fight to the end with the US-led NATO

Europe directly determines Russia's national fortune, and its dominance over Europe also directly determines the international dominance of the United States, so as long as there is an opportunity, Russia will inevitably infiltrate its influence into Europe, and the United States must naturally resist Russia's expansion with all its might

Especially now, if Russia retreats, it will inevitably collapse, and even Putin's regime will be subverted, and if the United States withdraws, Russia will inevitably take the whole of Ukraine in one fell swoop and directly penetrate its influence into Europe

Naturally, the United States and Russia are completely trapped in the chaos of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and neither side can retreat, can only continue to overdraw national strength, and eventually form a line of actual control that neither side is willing to recognize, and then highly antagonistic and continue to skirmish

Second, the United States knows very well that it does not have an advantage in East Asia and China head-to-head, and it is even very likely that it will be completely driven out of East Asia

In fact, China is the biggest strategic beneficiary of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, on the one hand, it completely restrains the strategic containment of China by the United States, on the other hand, it also makes traditional European powers begin to abandon one side to the United States, wander between China and the United States, arbitrage, seek strategic autonomy, and virtually improve China's right to speak

In theory, China is the only challenger to the United States, but after the United States missed the best strategic opportunity to contain China, China has become so strong that it is difficult for the United States to easily shake, so that it is completely out of control

Now the United States is extremely embarrassed in East Asia, and other traditional allies of the United States, with the exception of Japan, have no intention of intervening in Sino-American disputes

And Japan is also trying to fool the United States and China into opposition, making its own profits, and doing its best to avoid a strong counterattack from China and Russia, which is not at all the same as the United States

Based on this, on the surface, the United States makes military provocations everywhere around China every day, and from time to time makes a little fuss on the Taiwan issue to brush up its sense of presence

However, the United States knows very well that it is really not advantageous in East Asia to go head-to-head with China, and it is even very likely to be completely driven out of East Asia, and China is also very clear that the United States absolutely does not dare to act roughly with China, just seeking a little political appeasement

This is the key to the fact that the United States keeps making small moves around China every day, but does not dare to end up easily

In addition, various interest groups in the United States are highly opposed, but most interest groups are highly related to China's interests and are reluctant to directly oppose China

There are also constant contradictions and infighting among a small number of extreme anti-China elements, which allows China to find an opportunity for arbitrage

In 2020, during the critical period of Trump's re-election election, the new crown epidemic quietly arrived, and in order to obtain re-election, Trump directly gave benefits to various interest groups through bottomless currency investment and fiscal deficits, and even sent money, in an attempt to obtain re-election votes

However, Trump's behavior violated the balance and compromise of politicians, but was angular, naturally touched the interests of some interest groups, and finally failed to be re-elected

Third, Biden must now find a receiver to subscribe for this round of new treasury bonds, and China is the only one in the world that has this strength

In the two and a half years that Biden has been in office, he has mainly done two things, namely

1. Detonate the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and yield benefits to the military-industrial complex and capital groups
2. Continue to raise interest rates and manage hyperinflation caused by Trump's bottomless monetary delivery

However, Biden is about to be elected next year, and in order to get various interest groups to support Biden's re-election, Biden must yield benefits to him, but Biden is currently unable to reconstruct the interest pattern and release incremental development dividends to please society through substantial reform

Based on this, if Biden wants to please all strata, the only way to get re-elected is to send money directly to society

But Trump has exhausted the potential space for new money that American society can bear, if Biden imitates Trump's set, that is, the Fed continues to subscribe to new treasury bonds through printing money, the United States will inevitably fall into the predicament of hyperinflation again, impact the welfare of society, cause antipathy to Biden, and re-election is naturally hopeless

But based on the current situation, it can be found that Biden must be re-elected, otherwise once Trump returns to the White House, his family will inevitably be liquidated, especially Biden's second son is really rotten

Based on this, Biden must find a receiver to subscribe for this round of new treasury bonds, and China is the only one in the world that has this strength

So, the United States locked China

Fourth, if China wants to compromise and subscribe to the new US government bonds, the United States must give equal benefits, and Taiwan is the only one that can arouse China's interest

However, China is now so strong that it is easy for the United States not to fantasize about dealing with China from a position of strength, and the reality is that if China wants to compromise and subscribe to the new US national debt, the United States must give equal benefits

Based on the current situation, in fact, the United States wants to make China compromise, which is only two moves, namely

1. At present, what China really needs is Taiwan, and everything else can be gradually obtained through other channels
2. Putting pressure on China through various ways to force China to yield benefits and facilitate its price negotiations is actually meaningless, and there is no point in the game of strength between countries

At present, no matter how the United States makes a fuss in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea and South China Sea, as long as China maintains its strategic focus and continues to enhance its national strength, these fist embroidery legs of the United States will naturally be solved

The fact is that the Taiwan Strait, the East China Sea and the South China Sea are on China's doorstep, and the United States is an extraterritorial country that will become less and less dominant

In particular, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan independence elements are all on the downward trend, and they are not in the same weight class as China at all, and they cannot withstand China's toss

And the United States is not only unable to shake China's position at all and against the background of the lack of superiority in force around China, its internal contradictions are worsening day by day, especially the Biden family is facing a critical period of liquidation, and reality forces the United States to compromise

Naturally, Taiwan has become a bargaining chip in Sino-US transactions

In order to ask for a price, China has chosen to ignore and deliberately delay time by provoking the United States by force, but the channels of communication between the two sides have always been smooth, whether it is the appointment of Xie Feng, the new Chinese master in the United States, or the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State Conda to China, they all try to convey China's interests to the United States

Fifth, the sole purpose of Blinken's visit to China is to talk about the price at which the United States will transfer Taiwan to China, and the reality of time is tight so that it is very likely that we will be able to negotiate this time

Based on the current situation, China and the United States should have generally reached talks, and the landmark event is that after consultations between the two sides, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit China on June 18 and 19

Due to the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs to China in early June, Conda was originally scheduled to report his recent visit to China to lawmakers on the 14th, but the hearing was temporarily postponed indefinitely on the 13th

The key to Conda's postponement of congressional hearings is to prevent early release to the outside world what was negotiated during his visit to China in early June

On June 16, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin stressed again at a regular press conference that the United States should not have the illusion of dealing with China from a position of strength, and that China and the United States must take care of each other's core interests and major concerns on the basis of mutual respect and equal treatment

On June 4, US National Security Adviser Sullivan said that he expected US President Biden to meet with Chinese leaders "at some point", and it was obvious that the United States was extremely anxious, even self-deprecating, and even ignored basic diplomatic etiquette

In fact, from the recent behavior of China and the United States, the only purpose of Blinken's visit to China is to talk about the price of the United States ceding Taiwan to China, and that's all, the reality of time is urgent, and there is a high probability that this negotiation can be reached

In fact, the United States is on the verge of losing control of Taiwan, China has completely mastered the dominance, and it is no longer a problem to remove it at any time, but it is only a little economic cost

In addition, Taiwan is a rapidly depreciating asset for the United States, and the cost of Beijing taking it out of Taiwan has become lower and lower over time

Therefore, at present, the United States can still get a little economic benefit by "cashing out", otherwise it will eventually be taken away by China directly at zero cost

However, for Beijing, spending a little money to remove Taiwan can ensure the maintenance of the rising national fortune, which is extremely critical, as long as Taiwan is removed, China's international discourse power and surrounding environment will inevitably be greatly improved, and it can obtain greater development dividends and added value

In fact, as long as it can return to the top of the world and become the dominant player in the global interest pattern, this little money will be earned back in minutes, the strategy is roundabout, and the transaction is cost-effective

It's just that at present, China has the strength to ask for a price, and naturally wants to quote the lowest price, in fact, the United States precisely does not have the right to speak in this transaction, anxious, and for China, love to sell or not sell, do not sell first, the price is too high, they will directly take it

Sixth, Ren'ai Jiao is a "gift" in the process of this Sino-US trade with Taiwan

Ren'ai Jiao is a gift in the process of trading Taiwan between China and the United States, and the Philippines does not have the strength to sit at the same negotiating table as China and the United States, but is just a payer

In fact, the Philippines did not intend to stir up the chaos between China and the United States at all, but it had to shake the flag and shout under the control of the United States, and even then it must pay a price

June 15 is the deadline for China to let the Philippines take the initiative to tow away the dilapidated tank landing ship Sierra Madre on Ren'ai Reef

The choice of June 15 is directly related to this round of Sino-US transactions for Taiwan, and for the United States, an uninhabited island or reef in the South China Sea is not important at all, mainly and cannot be controlled

Ren'ai Jiao is located near China, and China has always appealed to sovereignty over it, and its national and military strength is increasing, and it will inevitably choose the opportunity to take it down, which the United States simply cannot stop

The United States is currently giving the Philippines a platform and fooling the Philippines into confrontation with China, more to achieve its asking price in the process of trading Taiwan

The United States is an extraterritorial country in the South China Sea, and the national strength of the Philippines determines that it cannot hold the illegally occupied islands and reefs in the South China Sea

It's just that if the opportunity is good, China will give some money, otherwise it will be taken directly, and the Philippines is hard to go, but after all, the Philippines also has an adaptation process, and it is difficult to spit out the islands and reefs in hand

And this time, China issued the deadline for the final voluntary evacuation and the "formation of troops" at Ren'ai Jiao, just wait for Blinken to mention it in passing when he visits China, say hello, and drive it away directly, so arrogant in the face of national strength, there is no reason to talk about it

The reason why Taiwan and Ren'ai Jiao can finally be solved is national strength, at present, China's national strength is still somewhat lacking, if the national strength reaches a certain level, it can be removed directly, without taking into account the feelings of the United States

But that's the next step, and spending a little money now is better to maximize China's interests...

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About the author:

Dr. Yanhao Ding, postdoctoral fellow, focuses on capital markets, focusing on equity investment, capital operation, block futures, options and macroeconomics and other fields of research and investment, focusing on international relations, history, philosophy and religion