Recently, a research report of Tianfeng Securities Research Institute has attracted attention from the industry, and the following chart of stock and bond income spread has been widely disseminated. In the research report, Liu Chenming of Tianfeng Research Institute pointed out that as of Friday, May 26, the return spread of stocks and bonds returned to the position of approaching -2X standard deviation.
The difference in stock and bond returns is the part of the "investment yield" representing the stock market that is higher than the "risk-free rate of return" representing the bond market, and is often used to determine which type of asset investment is more cost-effective in stocks and bonds. This value is close to -2X standard deviation, reflecting the current more pessimistic economic and fundamental expectations, that is, low market sentiment.
What happens after a low level? What can we do? This is a real concern for investors.
Short-term markets are difficult to predict, but we can look back at the same characteristic points in the past.
Since 2012, there have been six phases in which equity and bond yields reached or approached -2X: early December 2012, late January 2016, early January 2019, end March 2020, end October 2022, and now.
At these points in time, the market is full of pessimistic expectations, investment sentiment is sluggish, and the fund has entered a trough of issuance.
The fund industry has always had the saying "good is not good to do, good is not good to do", and at the freezing point of the market, you can buy ideal high-quality companies at a lower price, which is more friendly to the establishment of new fund positions.
So how did products released at Freeze perform in the past? Is it really well done? The author pulled data from three "freezing point" periods with sufficient sample size to calculate the performance of private equity fund products established in the past two months before and after the equity and bond return spread approached -2X standard deviation.
End of January 2016: Positive income accounted for 88%, and Shi Feng's top work was laid out here
The bear market in the second half of 2015 may still be fresh in the memory of many people.
In the third quarter of this year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell all the way, starting from 5178 points on June 15, and fell below 3000 points in August, falling as much as 42% in less than 2 months, and only stopped the decline in the fourth quarter, but the market still has palpitations.
In this way, entering 2016, the stock and bond income gap quietly approached -2X in the continuously sluggish market, at this time, many sectors of the market were cost-effective, institutions gradually began to layout, and many private placements also tried to issue new products at this low point, striving to build positions at a low level.
According to the author's statistics, 66 of the private equity fund products established in January and February 2016 have been disclosed in the private placement network, with an average return of 78.84% and a positive return of 88% since its establishment, of which half of the products have already harvested "***".
The author screened out the products with a management scale of more than 500 million yuan and top 20 revenues, and the products under Jushan Asset ranked first with a bright income of ****% since its establishment.
Among the TOP20 products, the products of the veteran 10 billion private equity Jinglin Asset and Shifeng Asset are tied, and they enter the top ten with a return of more than ***%.
Among them, Shifeng Asset's product "*****" has achieved ****% since its inception, and the annualized income has reached ****%. This product, which was issued when the return gap between stocks and bonds was close to -2X, also ranked among the top products of Shifeng Asset Management in the private placement ranking network.
Founded in 2015, Shifeng Asset Management is a large-scale private equity fund management company focusing on equity investment in the secondary market, with an asset management scale of more than 10 billion. Adhering to the investment philosophy of "research-driven, growing value", Shi Feng is a firm growth value investor in the A-share market, and is committed to creating long-term sustainable compound interest income for investors.
Early January 2019: Xia Junjie issued representative products, and Blackwing Asset deployed the CSI 500 track
After experiencing another bear market in 2018, the market was also in a downturn for a while, and the equity and bond yield gap approached -2X again in early 2019.
According to the author's statistics, of the private equity fund products established from December 2018 to January 2019, 152 have performance disclosure on the private placement ranking network, with an average return of 101.47% since its inception, and a positive return accounting for 87.5%, of which 37 products have harvested "***".
The author screened out the products with a management scale of more than 500 million yuan and top 20 revenues, and the products under Longhang Asset ranked first with the ****% income since its establishment.
According to the data of the private placement network, the core team of Longhang Asset Management has 18 years of industry investment experience in the domestic and foreign securities markets, follows the concept of value investment, and takes the sustainable growth of assets as its responsibility.
Through effective risk control, Longhang Asset Management grasps relatively certain investment opportunities and pursues long-term compound growth of wealth. In terms of investment methodology, Longhang Asset focuses on research-driven investment and emphasizes the importance of rigorous and scientific investment process in investment.
It is worth noting that the "fist" products under the tens of billions of subjective private equity Renqiao assets and tens of billions of quantitative private equity black wing assets are also on this list.
Among them, the "******" under Renqiao Asset, managed by Xia Junjie, the star fund manager, has achieved ***% income and annualized income of ***% since its establishment. This product is also one of Xia Junjie's masterpieces.
It was during this period that Blackwing Asset established the flagship product "******" of the CSI 500 index growth track, with a profit of ***% and an annualized income of ***%.
According to the data of the private placement network, Blackwing Asset Management was established in 2014 and has been deeply engaged in the field of quantitative investment for a long time, and is committed to creating high-quality products and services. At present, the product line has covered quantitative stock selection, index enhancement, multi-strategy, full-cycle CTA and other series.
At the end of March 2020: A number of private placement products such as Juming, Zhenyuan, and Wenbo performed well
Came to our memory of 2020, the outbreak of the epidemic around the Spring Festival this year, the whole country was shaken, the stock market also fell sharply in the first quarter, and the difference in stock and bond returns was rapidly approaching -2X at the end of March.
However, the A-share market did not continue to be sluggish this time, and the broader market soon reversed upward, and several major indexes rose to varying degrees throughout the year, including the Shanghai Composite Index up 13.87% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 38.73%, achieving positive returns throughout the year.
Among them, the SME index and ChiNext index rose more significantly, with the SME index rising 41.91% and the ChiNext index rising 64.96%, outperforming other global stock indexes.
This does not mean that the products established at the "freezing point" are easier to do, followed by a sideways 2021 and a heavy decline in 2022.
According to the author's statistics, 335 of the private equity fund products established in March-April 2020 have performance disclosure on the private placement ranking network, with an average return of 31.08% and a positive return of 70.36% since its establishment, of which 30 products have already gained "****".
The author screened out the products with a management scale of more than 500 million yuan and top 20 income, and the products under 10 billion private equity Juming Investment won the championship with ***% income and ***% annualized income since its establishment.
On this list, we can see a number of well-known star private equity managers for investors: Juming Investment, Fusheng Asset, Zhenyuan Investment, Wenbo Investment, Sixun Investment, Lin Yuan Investment...
Many of the products established by these star private equity managers in the "freezing point" period are their current "fist" products, and their performance ranks first or even ranks first among their products included in the private placement ranking network, including "Juming Zhangyu Value Growth" under Juming Investment, "*****" under Fusheng Asset, "*****" under Zhenyuan Investment, and "*****" under Wenbo Investment in the CSI 1000 Index Track, and so on.
To a certain extent, this shows that in the past, when the return difference between stocks and bonds approached the -2X freezing point, it was often a low point suitable for entry layout in the eyes of star private equity managers. Their successful "fist" product also proves the value of low-point layout.
It is important to note that the "low point" can only indicate that the layout is cost-effective, but it cannot guide whether and when the market will start the rebound.
In the research report of TF Securities, Liu Chenming summarized the two possible rebound paths after hitting -2X standard deviation in history:
One is under a strong economy, running to the other extreme, that is, +2X standard deviation, that is, the purple path in the figure above; The other is a small rebound towards the central axis under a weak economy, that is, the green path in the figure above.
For 2023, referring to the past situation of US stocks and Japanese stocks, Liu Chenming believes that the second path is more likely, and the layout needs to find structural opportunities in sectors with weak correlation to the total economy.
Risk Disclosure: Investment is risky, the past performance of the fund involved in this information is not indicative of its future performance, the performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of the fund, and our company does not promise or predict the future return of the product by express, implied or any other means. Investors should pay careful attention to various risks, carefully read the fund contract, fund product information summary and other sales documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics of the product, make investment decisions according to their own circumstances, and bear their own profits and losses for investment decisions.