"A president who violated the federal constitution and demanded that his vice president be complicit should not run for president again," said Mike Pence, a former vice president of the United States who announced his candidacy for president on his 64th birthday, rushed to Iowa, the traditional primary opener, and showed no mercy to Trump, a former partner and today's opponent, at a rally of supporters.
On June 7, 2023, local time, Anckney, USA, former US Vice President Mike Pence addressed supporters when he officially announced his intention to seek the Republican presidential nomination. Visual China map
Since May, competition for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential election has rapidly intensified with the expected candidacy of Florida governor Ron DeSantis. Within two days of June 6 and 7 alone, Pence, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and current North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum were on the list. At this point, the number of contenders interested in competing for Republican status against Biden has reached at least 14. Although the number is not the largest, the lineup configuration of one former president, one former vice president, one current congressional senator, two current governors and four former governors can be described as unprecedentedly luxurious, even luxurious to the point of suspense. In other words, in the face of the objective reality that Trump continues to take an overwhelming lead in various polls, the outside world can't help but ask, why do Republicans such as Pence "desperately" run along?
On June 10, 2023, local time, in Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA, Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis addressed supporters at the "Never Back Down" event held at the F&E Activity Center.
Can 3.8% be nominated?
After sixteen spring and autumn years in Washington, Pence finally embarked on his own road to the White House. But the former Republican vice president, once hailed as more conservative than Dick Cheney, is now almost unadvantageous and outdated. According to a comprehensive poll at the end of May, Pence received only 3.8% support in the party. While ranked fourth, it is far behind Trump at 53.2 percent and DeSantis at 22.4 percent, and even slightly below Nikki Haley, who worked in the same cabinet. So, is it possible for 3.8% to be nominated? In theory, of course, it is possible, and the election thing, before the last moment, everything is possible. Observing only the Republican open primaries in the 2008, 2012 and 2016 elections, 3.8% 16 months before Election Day, in June of the year before the election, it is indeed impossible to completely deny the glimmer of hope.
In early June 2007, the Republican frontrunner was Rudy Giuliani at 26.4 percent, while the final nominee, John McCain, was polled at 16.3 percent and came in second with 2.2 percent. In early June 2011, Mitt Romney, the 2012 Republican nominee, was in first place with 19.3 percent support, while Rick Santorum was at 1 percent. In early June 2015, Trump announced his candidacy, initially with a 3% approval rating, but then soared and eventually won the nomination. It also means that, at least the historical performance of Huckerby, Santorom or Trump can prove that 3.8% at this time is not necessarily a completely bad starting point.
On June 10, 2023, local time, Greensboro, North Carolina, United States, former President Donald Trump. Visual China map
Although there is some comfort in theory and historical experience, does Pence really have a chance? Looking back at the stories of the three Republican open primaries in 2008, 2012 and 2016, it is not difficult to see the political ecological evolution that the Republican Party has undergone in recent years, and this change may not be friendly to Pence.
The "breakthrough" behind the three election battles
There must be a good director hidden behind the 2008 primary election process, which presents a campaign that continues to leave suspense and is only quickly launched and hearty after the primary. In the first half of 2007, Giuliani (around 30%-35%) and McCain (20%) were firmly in the top two. Giuliani then remained relatively stable, with McCain slipping lower to third. It was not until January 2008, when the state primaries began, that McCain gradually took a solid lead and eventually sealed the victory. The whole process was relatively steady, and McCain's "long-distance run" completely confirmed the victory of the establishment, or showed the final and effective control of the moderate establishment over the Republican political ecology.
In contrast, the 2012 primary election process was a suspenseful drama with ups and downs and suspense. In the first half of 2011, Romney had largely established a relatively solid front spot, but in about half a year between the start of the televised debate in August 2011 and the opening of the February 2012 primary, then-Texas Governor Rick Perry, African-American businessman Herman Cain, former Speaker of the House of Representatives Newt Gingrich and former Senator Santorom staged a comeback over Romney. The plot of the "quartet" that was soon recovered by Romney. Equally dramatic, Romney's recovery was accompanied by a slow rise in polls until he was nominated. Now it seems that behind the four reversals of that year was clearly a difficult game in which the Republican establishment struggled to balance and accept the demands of the anti-establishment. Rather than Romney's successful victory over four party rivals, Romney gradually accepted the shaping of the political positions of the four party rivals and their representatives.
The 2016 primaries were more of an explosive existence, beyond any script that could be given. The Republican primaries in the first half of 2015 were leaderless, with Jeb Bush and then-Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker leading each other, but with a maximum of 15 percent. It wasn't until June 16, a month after Trump's official candidacy, that polls rose rapidly. Then, only Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in mid-November 2015 briefly narrowly overtook Trump in a limited number of polls, but was quickly recovered by Trump without a reversal. Therefore, compared with 2012, the Republican Party in 2016 no longer has enough to resist or balance the anti-establishment Romney, but has a more powerful Trump than the four candidates who attacked Romney that year.
It can be said that the three Republican open primaries from 2008 to 2016 reflect the continuous accumulation and eventual breakthrough of the anti-establishment forces of the Republican Party.
From this point of view, will the Republican open primary election in the 2024 election be the "anti-breakout" of Pence and other establishments? It must be noted that whether to break through or not may not be the theme of Republican politics today. In 2016, even if not Trump, the anti-establishment has embarked on a trend of gaining more and more advantages within the Republican Party and becoming the dominant force. Trump in 2016 accelerated this trend and tied it to its personal negatives. In this sense, the theme of 2024 is to continue the political agenda that the Republican Party has established through breakthroughs in the past, while removing the negative elements of Trump's personalization. In short, the theme is the choice between Trump's ideas and Trump's personal. Burns does have some key role to play in this kind of theme, but it does not necessarily represent the direction of the trend.
What does Pence really want?
There may be two ways for the Republican Party to objectively complete some kind of choice in 2024. One is to deny Trump in the primary, and the other is to lose the election on behalf of the Republican Party.
As far as the first option is concerned, as it stands, even if anyone can defeat Trump in the primary, it will probably not be Pence, but more likely DeSantis, who is currently in second place. Pence needs to point the finger at Trump while emphasizing that he rather than DeSantis is the best Republican candidate to include more Trump supporters. It's tough. The only roadmap is: to fully drag down Trump and pull down his poll support before the primary officially begins; Bet on the primary opener states, competing with Desandi for Trump supporters to maximize their chances as the Trump campaign gradually collapses.
While it's hard to say that such a move is completely unfeasible, for Pence, he can achieve some equally important political goals, even if it doesn't work. On the one hand, Pence is obviously using this high-profile election to completely part ways with Trump, which not only helps him better preserve his so-called "innocence" in the face of the current series of investigations, but also ensures that he can create a historical position in the political history of the Republican Party and even the political history of the United States. On the other hand, Pence's candidacy, or the extraordinary situation of a vice president challenging his partner in his party's primary for the first time in 83 years, is in fact an open confrontation with Trump. This is the biggest rejection of Trump's four years in office, and may help push further trade-offs and a more radical political transformation for the Republican Party.
As far as the second approach is concerned, if Trump eventually wins the primary election and runs for president three times on behalf of the Republican Party, the attitude of Pence and others will be the most critical, and whether or not to turn to support his party's presidential candidate again is extremely important to the Republican election and prospects. If it still insists on keeping its distance from Trump, the Republican Party is more likely to lose due to poor internal integration, but its future integration is more likely to come out of the shackles and gain a wider political space. At that time, after bidding farewell to Trump, the classic tradition of the so-called "people are not as good as old" in the Republican presidential primary will surely return, and these initial experience and popularity testers who participated in the 2024 primary will soon usher in real opportunities.
As a result, Trump is electing 2024, Pence and Christie are seeking historical positioning, Scott is electing a deputy (Editor's note: Tim Scott, South Carolina U.S. Senate, May 23 this year, Scott announced his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination), Haley is electing a future secretary of state, and DeSantis is running for 2024 or 2028.
The "Federal Inspectorate" is a column by Diao Daming, a researcher at the National Institute of Development and Strategy at Chinese University and deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Chinese Minmin University.