Sina Leju News Wang Yu Just concluded the Golden Week, 33 real estate for sale in Beijing sold 1428 new houses, with a total transaction amount of 10.593 billion. If this achievement is still not satisfactory, then, Beijing's second-hand housing market has really begun to enter the cold winter.
According to Tmall good house monitoring data, during the National Day, Beijing second-hand housing brokers took 198001 group, down 8.9% from the pre-holiday 217399 group, and 11.6 groups per capita with watching during the Golden Week, down 12.2% from the 13.2 group before the festival.
If the big data statistics are not intuitive enough, the news from the industry will make people have a more personal feeling:
It is reasonable to say that the National Day period is the busiest time period for brokers to bring customers, except for a few personnel who are on leave, most of the personnel remain on duty at any time.
But this year the situation is all different: a chain store in the eastern region of Beijing announced that during the small long holiday, all brokers collectively take a three-day holiday. The meaning behind this makes people have a deeper understanding of the current situation of the second-hand housing market in Beijing.
In 2021, the second-hand housing market in beijing's property market can be described as ups and downs, the first half of the year is bullish, and the situation in the second half of the year is taking a sharp turn, like a speeding roller coaster.
According to statistics, compared with the same period in previous years, the second-hand housing market in Beijing was active in the first half of the year, and the cumulative transaction reached a new high in the past five years, breaking through the 100,000 sets mark, getting rid of the short-term cycle law of rapid cold after the "Xiaoyang Spring" in 2018-2019, with an average monthly transaction of more than 16,000 sets, and more than 22,172 sets of transactions in March, reaching a record high, setting a new high after the "317 regulation" in 2017.
But since July, the second-hand housing market has cooled down momentum, transactions have been rapidly declining, this trend has continued until September, the data show that in August, the number of second-hand housing network signed sets in Beijing was 15,942 sets, a month-on-month decline of 10.7%, and the transaction volume of second-hand houses in September was 12,575 sets, down 21% month-on-month.
In the second half of the year, the second-hand housing market in Beijing fell rapidly, and even the gold market of the National Day Golden Week was no longer there, mainly affected by the following factors:
1. The policy of not speculating in housing continues, setting the tone for the property market expectations
On July 30, the Politburo meeting again mentioned the positioning of housing and not speculation, and it is necessary to adhere to the positioning that the house is used to live, not to speculate, stabilize land prices, stabilize house prices, stabilize expectations, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Accelerate the development of rental housing, and implement support policies such as land use and taxation.
2. The patch of the housing purchase regulation policy was introduced to plug the loophole from the demand side
At the beginning of August, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission issued the Announcement on Further Improving the Purchase Restriction Policy for Commodity Housing, which completely blocked the problem of "fake divorce" to buy a house. Where a husband and wife divorce and the number of housing units owned by the original family before the divorce does not comply with the provisions of the Beijing Municipal Commodity Housing Purchase Restriction Policy, neither party may purchase commercial housing in the city for three years from the date of divorce. Policy regulation "patching" has extinguished the second-hand housing market that has just warmed up in Beijing.
3. The guidance price of second-hand houses has landed, so that the market has fallen into a wait-and-see state
First-tier cities such as Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou have implemented the "second-hand housing guidance price", and it is imperative for Beijing to follow up.
According to the information transmitted on the Internet, the Haidian Housing Association will give guidance prices for small apartments of less than 60 square meters, medium apartments of 60-90 square meters and large apartments of more than 90 square meters in 29 hot spots in Haidian District, and will be implemented after the National Day.
At present, Beijing is only Haidian pilot, but the probability of promotion in the city in the future is very large, which will have a direct impact on the overall market psychology, especially the introduction of follow-up related supporting policies, such as the approval of the synchronous reference price of the housing loan policy, which will directly affect the purchasing ability of buyers and make the market wait-and-see sentiment heavier.
4. The introduction of the multi-school zoning policy dilutes the scarcity attribute of school district housing
Beijing's second-hand housing transaction volume from late last year to the first half of this year is directly related to the school district housing factor, but this year the government strictly controls the speculation of school district housing, and the multi-school zoning policy of Xicheng has landed, resulting in a significant decline in the heat of transactions, and the buyers' housing demand in popular school districts such as Desheng and Yuetan has begun to change, regardless of whether it is just needed or improved, most of them have stopped the pace of irrational admission, and temporarily delayed the shooting in the hot school district housing area.
In May and May, new projects for land will enter the market in batches, and second-hand house purchase customers will be diverted
In May, the first batch of land auction plots began to be listed in the second half of the year, and most of the products are improvement projects, from product design to property services are greatly improved than the old second-hand houses, which is very attractive to customers who have been suppressed for a long time to improve, so as to buy new projects.
In addition, Haidian, Chaoyang and other hot plates, some new projects due to the government sales guidance price, and the surrounding second-hand houses to form a price inversion, the premium income also prompted many customers to participate in the "hit the new disk" activities, causing a significant squeeze on the transaction of second-hand houses.
6. Strengthen financial supervision and tighten housing credit, and play a role in drawing salaries from the bottom of the kettle
Under the policy requirements of "housing and not speculation", the tightening of real estate financial supervision policies is an important reason for banks to tighten the amount of second-hand housing loans. The entire bank industry is continuing to strictly implement differentiated housing credit policies in accordance with requirements and reduce the proportion of housing loans.
It is understood that Beijing's credit is relatively loose compared with the credit in southern cities, but many banks have begun to tighten their housing loans, and the processing cycle has been greatly extended, which has played a role in drawing salaries from the bottom of the second-hand housing transaction volume.
After twenty years of development of China's real estate industry, the first-tier cities represented by Beijing, second-hand housing transactions have become the mainstream of the market, accounting for 80% of the total transactions, in order to effectively regulate house prices, in the past only for the new market price limit and other policies have limited impact, second-hand housing regulation and upgrading is an inevitable trend.
Under the dual influence of the policy and market, at present, Beijing has seen the peak of second-hand house prices and gradually entered the downward trend, and it is not expected that a major reversal will occur in the short term.
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Article source: Happy house to buy a house
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