Paper Guiluo City|The Heat are 1-3 behind and have entered a desperate situation, but they do not have the conditions for the 16 Cavaliers to turn over

(Text/L.A. Van Cidy)

The G4 Nuggets beat the Heat again, leading 3-1 to win the Finals match point; The Heat were driven to the edge of a cliff and precarious.

Is there a miracle in the Heat?

This one is really hard:

There have been thirteen big comebacks from trailing 1-3 in history, with the Denver Nuggets contributing 2 times (the 20 season is still the only team to achieve a series 1-3 comeback twice in the same year); Only the 2016 Cavaliers counterattack the Warriors were successful.

To fight back from 1:3, you have to win three games in a row, and considering that there is only one chance, the pressure is not even lower than sweeping.

Where a counterattack succeeds, it is generally based on one foundation - tactical restraint.

That's the beauty of the NBA game.

As we all know, the playoffs are a competition that pays attention to the targeted arrangement, and the targeted arrangement is as important as the book strength.

For example, after the Lakers traded Wei Shao this season, the top three in the Western Conference on the book strength, there is no Nuggets has a big gap, but it was swept by the Nuggets, because the Nuggets' size itself is very good for the Lakers' three guards, and the Lakers' targeted arrangement is poor.

Targeted arrangements include regular and adjustable alignment. Adjustment can often work wonders, such as misalignment on the offensive end, change of defender on the defensive end, or joint defense.

For example, in the 20 season, the Clippers multi-forward lineup, even stronger on the book than the Nuggets, once led 3:1, but the center Zubac and Harley could not match Jokic, Beverley and Reggie could not match Murray, and were finally counterattacked.

The hole in the Cavaliers lineup targeted by the Warriors in the 16th Finals - Kevin Loafer, the Splash Brothers not only used cover to name Love to cultivate the feeling, but the Cavaliers' defensive system collapsed. Love is an important giant for the Cavaliers, especially in the face of the Raptors Wa Lan is an artifact, but meeting the Warriors is a gray face, but he has a hidden skill - concussion (the 2018 season East final opened another "concussion", so the Green Army was eliminated), G3 was suspended, and the Cavaliers honed the offensive and defensive system at this time.

After falling behind 3:1, the Cavaliers made some targeted adjustments: the Warriors' "undercover" Barnes clipped Curry when defending, and James constantly named Curry by blocking and displacing on offense, causing Curry to consume at both ends of the offensive and defensive ends, and finally succeeded.

So how to solve the problem in the face of roll call? You have to put out more firepower than the person named you, but that round of Curry output is not enough.

These are all classic targeted tactical adjustments.

The conversation shifted to the Heat and Nuggets.

The Nuggets have three weaknesses, but they have all been addressed with Coach Malone:

First, center Jokic's defensive weakness.

Big centers were inevitably named by guards or forwards due to footwork problems, and the Nuggets were fully prepared for this, introducing two championship puzzles in the new season:

- 2020 Season Championship Puzzle Pope, 2021 Season IF Championship Puzzle Brown.

The double ghost shot and the original Gordon, rookie Braun, Murray and Porter also improved their defensive ability, forming a protective circle and extinguishing the Heat's three-point ability.

When the opponent blocks and disassembles, other positions can be changed to defend, and the center position will try to use the method of squeeze cover + Jokic sinking to reduce Jokic consumption (if delay, the defensive effect will be better, but the physical consumption of Jokic is large, so use less).

Of course, the sinking mode is inevitably named, especially the middle road blocking and demolition is basically unpreventable, and the Heat have cut a lot of points.

Jokic is strong, cutting more points than the person named him, making up for the weakness of the center end.

Second, the rotation is shorter.

In addition to the Nuggets' starting + Brown for a stable rotation, Braun and Jeff Green belong to an unstable rotation, counting 6 rotations + 2 half-man rotations, this rotation is indeed a little shorter, fortunately, Jokic and Murray are superstars who can carry a long time, and Braun's rise has increased playing time and stabilized the rotation.

The Heat can indeed come up with a longer rotation, but the Nuggets are physically okay, and this advantage is not obvious.

Third, the strength of Jokic's "connecting section" has fallen sharply.

Jokic, as the ball-carrying core of the two-man transfer cutting system, weakened the team's offensive strength a lot after the game; And Malone adjusted accordingly, and when Jokic went to the break, he switched to an infinite change of defense, and after defending his opponent, he lost firepower by counterattacking, which proved to be just right. The Heat didn't take much advantage of the transition in the Finals.

The Heat have three killing moves, but they all collapse here in the Nuggets:

First, the offensive end can make three-point opportunities by playing passes.

But here in the Nuggets, the size advantage is too obvious, and it is difficult for the Heat to score inside the basket, and they can only rely on three points, and three points become the lifeline; As mentioned above, the Nuggets have top outside defense (only a weakness at the center end), and the Finals Heat lost three points, and only G2 shot (close to 50%) to win.

Second, the defensive end often swings joint defense.

These games of the Heat's joint defense have put a lot of place, but Jokic is a punishment joint defense artifact, can stand on the free throw line three threats, crack the Heat joint defense; And the Nuggets also have "not talking about martial arts" inside attacks, such as Gordon, Jokic to the inside strong fight, regardless of whether you combine defense or not.

When the Heat swings people, they face the disadvantage of each position; The Heat also clipped Murray, but Murray shot quickly and cracked the clip easily.

Third, Butler single-handedly.

Butler has suffered a sprained ankle since the Finals, his competitive form has declined, and he can no longer win the miracle of the Bucks period, and the last time he scored more than 30 points was in the Eastern Conference Finals against the Green Army G1. This round clearly shows that Butler is already unable to defend against Gordon and Pope.

In short, the Heat's killing move, the Nuggets have been disassembled; And the Nuggets' weakness, the Heat can't target. The Heat card has been played, and in the highly targeted playoffs, the Heat no longer have the possibility of creating miracles.