Is it hard to admit that Apple has released a semi-finished product?

This article is from the WeChat public account: judge old driver (ID: panguansays), author: judge, title picture from: Visual China

As you know, the best mobile phone manufacturer in the Western Hemisphere, Apple, a subsidiary of California Light Hammer Technology, released a very top-notch product, literally the top: a headset MR (mixed reality) device Vision Pro.

It is said that this product is a semi-finished product, not only because it will not be available in the first half of next year, but also has a small print at the bottom of the product page on Apple's official website:

This device has not been authorized as required by the rules of the Federal Communications Commission. This device is not, and may not be, offered for sale or lease, or sold or leased, until authorization is obtained.

That is, the device has not passed the network access certification of the Federal Communications Commission (similar to the CTA certification of China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology) and cannot be sold or leased in the United States.

Therefore, this product is a semi-finished product in the literal sense of the word, which is still in the development stage. Whether it can be mass-produced smoothly will be discussed next year.

And Vision Pro is currently only planned to be sold in the United States, so the above text and product page, you have to go to Apple's official website in the United States to see.

Staying up late to watch the launch of this product, I personally feel that it is very worthless, because it is indeed the strongest MR device on the market, there is no one, but it also has the common disadvantages of all MR devices on the market: bulky, non-portable (WiFi only), large power consumption.

The few media who have experienced the real Vision Pro machine, and the atmosphere group that has not experienced the real machine, there is no shortage of people who blow up this product, and even some people say that "I really don't want to spend more than a minute in the real world".

I really beg some teachers not to look like they have never seen the world and cyber-premature ejaculation. Which technology company's press conference DEMO is repeatedly polished and optimized, no matter how bad Apple is, it will not let you experience "sum!" Delete! "Huh?

In addition, the press conference demonstrated Apple's official and collaborative partners' software and content ecology, given that we are in areas where platforms such as Fitness+ and Disney+ do not provide services, although they can be accessed by some means, but it means that these contents are not available to the vast majority of consumers.

Some orange learning platforms are also expected, but it is a pity that Apple, which has a very positive view, has always been disdainful of such content, and it is impossible to have deep cooperation.

There were anglers around me who were very excited, rubbing their hands and saying that HD cloud fishing could be arranged. Really answered that sentence, middle-aged men have three treasures, fishing, Maotai, and Archaeopteryx.

I posted a circle of friends on March 17 this year, saying that AGI's "iPhone 4 moment" has not yet arrived; As a result, four days later, Huang Jenxun's boss said at the press conference that the world is ushering in the "iPhone moment" of artificial intelligence, which makes me feel like I have been flipped by the big guy.

But if you think about it, if the "iPhone moment" refers to the first generation of iPhone, it is also a semi-finished product, there is no app store, no 3G, no Chinese input method, and it was not certified by the FCC when it was released, and there was no mass production. ChatGPT is currently at this moment, and it is indeed no problem, and the future is promising.

But this time someone said that Vision Pro is the "iPhone moment" of VR/AR/MR, and I definitely don't approve of it. If you have to make an analogy, it can probably be counted as a "Blackberry moment". Expensive, closed system, niche, and limited use scenarios are the current situation of MR equipment.

When is the "iPhone moment" of such devices? It is when the main engine is similar to ordinary glasses in appearance and weight.

To achieve the "iPhone 4 moment", it is necessary to separate from all peripherals, WiFi, and external power supplies, and independently maintain more than eight hours of operation. Obviously, with the current level of science and technology, there is no drama in the short term.

So what is Apple's reason for releasing such a device? Just to show technology and ruthlessness?

As we all know, Apple's software and hardware and supply chain management capabilities are second to none in the consumer electronics industry. The company must strategically capture all common human devices.

Computers, tablets, phones, watches, headphones, TVs, speakers, and even cars (CarPlay), Apple has already done it. The only remaining market is glasses.

If you were Cook, would you ignore this market? What's more, the number of people who wear glasses (including sunglasses, reading glasses, etc.) in the world is second only to mobile phone users in the above product users.

Apple doesn't care about the concept of VR, AR, MR, what Apple wants is to put the product on the bridge of your nose. Glasses are truly "one more thing" and "the only thing left."

Therefore, although it is a semi-finished product, Apple must insist on taking it out this time. Everyone says that this product is a pile of materials, indeed, Apple piles up all his materials in industrial design, structural design, chips, operating systems, human-computer interaction, software content ecology, supply chain and other aspects.

The result of the pile, although it did not significantly throw off similar products, but Apple wants the effect of leading the big brother, the main thing is to continue the life of the industry. It is not important to have no specific application scenarios, and what you can't think of clearly, everyone thinks together.

As for price, this generation of products was not designed for mass consumers. This is evidenced by the BOM cost of a media analysis product and finding that the retail pricing is only twice the cost of the material.

It is necessary to know that the mold and R&D costs of this product are evenly distributed to the single machine, and with the foreseeable low shipment, most of them are ultimately loss-making. Think of this generation of products as a developer prototype.

Ordinary consumers want to use it, wait another two or three years, Brother Cook will definitely arrange Vision Air, Vision Youth Edition and the like to bring down the price for the family.

Finally, I would like to express that it is too early to talk about the MR era, and it will take at least five years to realize scenes such as the Dragon Ball Combat Detector and the Terminator Schwarzenegger robbing clothes.

As for the productivity scene in "Iron Man" that deeply integrates AI assistants, or the entertainment scene in "Ready Player One" that integrates with somatosensory clothing, it may land first in vertical industries.

However, when the workers saw this press conference, they could see the sky screen Excel table in the Z column at a glance, and they almost cried, which is not the life everyone wants. Bosses can consider buying a Vision Pro as a way to punish employees who make mistakes.

Judge: Senior product manager, author of the book "Product Awakening"

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