Summary of views: PTA
Core view: neutral PTA supply and demand are strong, polyester high load, PTA accumulation pressure in June is not large, short-term profit repair, driving general, short-term expected shock, pay attention to macro policy and crude oil fluctuations.
Monthly difference: neutral spot contradiction is not prominent, range shock idea.
Spot: neutral Spot market negotiations are general, basis fluctuations are not large, and the source of goods in June is negotiated around 09+125-130.
Device changes: neutral PTA equipment is being overhauled and restarted as planned, Sanfang Alley is stopped for a short time, and Baihong, Weilian and Yadong are overhauled and restarted. The maintenance plan in June is not high, and supply is expected to remain high.
Downstream demand: neutral polyester off-season starts rose to more than 92%, off-season is not light, short-term load maintenance, weaving pressure slightly increased.
Supply and demand balance: neutral Supply and demand are both strong in June, and it is expected to maintain a tight balance to a small accumulation state, with little short-term accumulation pressure and medium and long-term production pressure.
Processing Margin: Neutral Spot end PTA-crude oil spread stabilized, valuation neutral. Among them, PXN remains around 390, and the profits of the industrial chain are concentrated in the PX link, and PXN is difficult to shrink in the short-term peak season, and there is an expectation of compression in the medium and long term.
Summary of views: ethylene glycol
Core view: neutral ethylene glycol coal restarted, new plants increased, supply rebounded as planned, downstream polyester remained high, supply and demand are expected to remain tight. At present, the port inventory is high, the supply of coal is sufficient, the port pickup is general, and the EG upward drive is insufficient, and the downward focus is on coal or supply increment.
Monthly difference: neutral The recent fluctuation is not large, the short-term is expected to fluctuate, and the monthly difference is not driven enough.
Spot: Neutral Market negotiations are weak. At present, the spot basis is around 80 yuan / ton discount for 09 contracts, negotiated around 3970-3975 yuan / ton, and traded around 3975 yuan / ton.
Device changes: neutral During the oil maintenance, the Sanjiang discharge load was slightly higher than expected, and the coal process was stopped and restarted.
Imports: neutral Short-term arrivals are not high, and imports are expected to pick up, estimated at 500,000-550,000 tons.
Downstream demand: neutral Seasonal off-season, polyester pressure is not large, and the load is expected to remain 90% high in June. The weaving pressure has recovered.
Supply and demand balance: neutral The proximal end of the balance is strong, the improvement of the distal supply continues to be general, and the accumulation pressure is accumulated.
Processing profit: neutral oil still loses, coal cash flow is recovering.
High load of polyester, future variable in weaving start
Weaving start-up maintenance
- Jiangsu and Zhejiang terminals have little change in elasticity, weaving, printing and dyeing, and the load is maintained to around 83%, 74% and 77%, which is at a high level in stages;
- Entering the seasonal off-season market, new orders are general, weaving raw material stocking has risen to 1-2 weeks, the inventory of finished grey fabrics has rebounded slightly, and the cash flow of grey fabrics has been compressed. The production and sales performance of polyester is acceptable. The demand off-season is characterized as neutral, and the weaving margin is slightly weakened.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Polyester low inventory, high cash flow
- As of last Friday (2nd), polyester load rose back to more than 92%, polyester weighted inventory was around 13.75 days, and polyester weighted profit was around 232 yuan.
- The weaving operating rate is high, just need to support polyester production and sales are acceptable, polyester inventory continues to go to storage, inventory pressure is not large, cash flow continues to repair, support polyester operating rate to maintain a high level.
- Linear extrapolation, short-term polyester operating rate is expected to remain high, and polyester operating is estimated to be 90% higher in June. The variable that needs to be paid attention to is the operating rate of weaving, which is just enough to support the high start of polyester under high weaving start, and if the weaving has a seasonal decline in the off-season, the negative feedback of demand will increase.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Polyester inventories continued to decline
- As of June 2, polyester stocks fell slightly, with POY, DTY, FDY and staple fiber inventories at 11.3, 28.1, 15.1 and 9 days, respectively. Last week, inventories held steady and fell, and polyester current inventory pressure is not large.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Polyester profitability increased
- The polyester cash flow is acceptable, and the overall status of buying and doing is profitable.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Polyester operating rate upward
- As of June 2, the immediate operating rate reached 92%, the pre-maintenance equipment was restarted, the new equipment was put into operation, and the demand for polyester remained high. According to CCF assessments, the operating rate was 90% in May (up 2% month-on-month) and 90% in June (+2% month-on-month).
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PTA supply and demand are both strong, and the divergence is increasing
The PTA's June maintenance schedule is not high
- The device was changed, the maintenance of Baihong, Weilian and Yadong was restarted, and the short-term stop of Sanfang Alley was planned for one week. In June, it is planned to overhaul the equipment Taihua, Jiatong 1#, etc., and the maintenance volume is not high.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PTA inventories declined slightly
- According to Zhongpu data, as of June 5, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) fell to 2.081 million tons. Goods in stock in Hong Kong declined, and inventories at PTA factories and polyester factories rebounded. As of June 5, Zheng Shang had 25,800 PTA warehouse receipts.
Data source: Hangzhou Zhongpu, Zheng Shang, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PTA balance sheet
- PTA supply and demand are strong, polyester high load, PTA accumulation pressure in June is not large, short-term profit repair, driving general, pay attention to macro policy and crude oil fluctuations.
- On the supply side, Yadong, Weilian and Baihong were restarted, and Sanfang Alley was overhauled for one week. Jiatong 1# storage maintenance plan has not been overhauled, and the supply maintenance volume is not high.
- On the demand side, polyester is 92% high this week, polyester low inventory and high cash flow, load is expected to remain high, 90% of construction starts in June and 87% in July.
- From the perspective of PTA balance sheet, the supply and demand data in May exceeded expectations, the balance accumulated slightly, the supply side maintenance in June was not high, the demand remained high, the supply and demand were both high, and it may be tightly balanced to a loose equilibrium state, and there is still accumulation pressure in the future. Fundamentals are generally driven.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Gasoline crack spread and octane neutral
- North American gasoline inventories declined slightly, with moderate performance during the peak season for gasoline cracking and octane spreads. North American gasoline cracking is better than Asia.
Source: Reuters, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
The economic performance of aromatic hydrocarbon oil blending is acceptable
- At present, the economy of oil blending has improved slightly, and North American and Asian oil blending is slightly better than disproportionation.
Source: WIND, Platts, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Institute
The aromatic hydrocarbon spread between the United States and Asia strengthened
- US-Asia spreads strengthened this week and the toluene xylene arbitrage window opened. By the end of May, South Korea had exported 15,000 tons of toluene to China and 19,500 tons to the United States; South Korea had exported 73,000 tons of MX to China and 15,500 tons to the United States; and South Korea had exported 420,000 tons of PX to China and 00,000 tons to the United States. It is expected that toluene xylene will still be exported to the United States in Northeast Asia.
Data source: IHS, WIND, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
PX balance sheet
- PX supply and demand both increased, the marginal accumulation pressure in June and July was not large, the domestic maintenance of PX on the supply side was completed one after another, the demand for PTA maintenance was not high, the tight balance state was maintained, and the short-term PXN compression space was not large. Medium and long-term PXN storage is expected to weaken, and the current oil blending is still in the peak season, pay attention to the future window buying situation.
- On the supply side, PX equipment changes, domestic plant restart supply recovery, Liaoyang Petrochemical restart, Weilian Chemical restart, CNOOC Huizhou 950,000 tons of plant in early June, Fujia Dahua, Lidong and Jiujiang Petrochemical load reduction, Guangdong Petrochemical and Daxie Petrochemical increased the burden.
- Overseas installations have not changed much. S-OIL's 1 million ton unit overhaul and Taiwan's FCFC restarts. Imports are estimated to be 800,000 in May, and imports from June to August are estimated to be around 700,000 tons.
- In balance, domestic maintenance has been restarted, supply has rebounded, PTA maintenance is not high, PX demand is maintained, supply and demand are strong, and short-term accumulation pressure is not large. PXN remained high at $385, with neither short-term compression nor strong drivers.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
In terms of valuation, near-end profits are concentrated in PXN
- PTA-crude oil spread stabilized, PTA-crude oil spread was neutral, PXN remained relatively high, and the current industrial chain profits were concentrated in PXN. There is a divergence on the PX side, the North American travel season, window buying is still there, short-term is difficult to shrink, medium and long-term PXN contraction.
Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
There are concerns about the recovery of MEG supply
Glycol load picks up
- The coal plant continues to restart, and the load picks up. According to CCF, as of May 26, the average weekly total load of ethylene glycol was 54.24%, and the coal load was 58.14%.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
The coal plant is being restarted
- The oil-based device has not changed much, and the new Sanjiang plant operates at 6-7 loads; In the increase of coal chemical load, Meijin, Weihua and Jianyuan were restarted, Guanghui was stopped for a short time, and Yulin was overloaded. Guangxi Huayi plans to restart at the end of June. Pay attention to the restart of the integrated plant in mid-June.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
The new device is discharged and loaded
- Sanjiang cracking was discharged on May 20, and the EG discharge was raised to 6-7%.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Oil production losses, coal cash flow continued to recover
- The oil-based process is still losing money, and the coal-based cash flow continues to recover.
Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
There are concerns about a rebound in imports
- The overseas installation did not change much, and the maintenance was carried out according to the plan. Maintenance in South Korea remains high, Dow in Canada is scheduled for maintenance, and PTT in Thailand is scheduled to restart in June. Horse oil restarted, and it is reported that there are shipments to the country. Imports from May to June are estimated at 500,000-550,000 tons.
Data source: General Administration of Customs, 52HZ, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
The port is slightly accumulated
- From the perspective of port arrivals, from May 29 to June 4, it is expected to arrive at 116,000 tons, and the actual arrival is 104,000 tons.
- As of June 4, the inventory of MEG ports in the main port area of East China was about 1.022 million tons, up 10,000 tons from last week.
- 6.4-6.11, the total amount of goods expected to arrive is around 108,000 tons, the arrival is not high, the pickup is general, and the ethylene glycol inventory remains stable or declines.
- Ethylene glycol stocking at polyester plants decreased sequentially for 15.3 days.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Ethylene glycol balance sheet
- Ethylene glycol coal production was restarted, new plants were negative, supply rebounded as planned, downstream polyester remained high, and supply and demand are expected to remain tight. At present, the port inventory is high, the coal supply is sufficient, the port pickup is general, the EG upward drive is insufficient, the short-term below is not optimistic about the big fall, continue to fall about the fall in coal prices or the restart of the integrated plant or the supply picks up again.
- On the supply side, the oil-based device has not changed much, and the new Sanjiang plant operates at 6 loads; In the increase of coal chemical load, Meijin, Weihua and Jianyuan were restarted, Guanghui was stopped for a short time, and Yulin was overloaded. Overseas installations, overhauled as planned. Maintenance in South Korea remains high, Dow in Canada is scheduled for maintenance, and PTT in Thailand is scheduled to restart in June. Horse oil restarted, and it is reported that there are shipments to the country. Imports from May to June are estimated at 500,000-550,000 tons.
- On the demand side, polyester starts rebounded significantly to 92.3% this week, nearly 90% in May, and expected to 90% in June (up 2% month-on-month). Polyester inventories are low, cash flow is good, and short-term starts are expected to remain high. In terms of balance, the proximal end is expected to destocking from June to July, and the distal end is in a loose balance or slightly accumulated state.
Source: CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Spread structure
The PTA basis is weak, and the monthly difference does not fluctuate much
Data source: WIND, CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
The monthly difference of ethylene glycol basis does not fluctuate much
Data source: WIND, CCF, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Far Moon structure
Data sources: Zheng Shang, Da Shang, SGX, Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
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