If it falls too much, it will rebound, this is the basic logic, many investors attribute Friday's rally to a small essay, that can only be said to be a matter of opinion. As for what exactly stimulated the rebound, no one can say clearly, what reason to find the rebound is also considered an afterthought, how do you think it is right.
Generally, everyone believes that there is a sharp rise after a sharp fall, and this sharp fall fell below several important supports, and the bottom and annual line of the large box were leaked. The bears are so arrogant that the bulls should quickly counterattack, but in fact, the bulls seem to have no counterattack other than defense. Without strength, I can only pretend to be a grandson. Although the Shanghai index turned red on Friday, it still struggled at the position of the annual line. The rise of more than 10 points is too weak, and more importantly, the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext continue to hit new lows in the year. The barrel theory tells us that how much water a bucket can hold depends on its shortest plank. In fact, the strength of the market is the same as the barrel, whether it is strong or weak, mainly depending on the overall water level of the market, rather than just staring at the relatively high Shanghai Index, except for some weight indexes representing the market, many other indexes are on the way to a new low even if they do not hit a new low in the year.
When a market is muddled by rumors every day, what hope can there be, just like a person who has lost his own hematopoietic function and has to rely on constant blood transfusions to stay alive. If the stock market rises because of rumors, especially after a big fall, and the market is in desperate need of a life-saving straw, then this seems to be a well-intentioned rumor. Regulators may not investigate where the rumors come from, and if the market plummets because of the rumors, then it may be held accountable. As for the difference between rumors and small essays, I think that the news that can make the market rise is called a small essay, and the news that may cause the market to fall sharply is called a rumor. Not necessarily right, just understand it yourself.
Someone listed nine small essays on Friday, namely: the introduction of the industrial mother machine policy; The expansion of the BSE lowers the threshold; tax cuts and supply-side reforms for auto parts; Preferential policies for automotive integrated die-casting; Musk came to China; Didi shares in Sinomach; Issuance of 5 trillion special government bonds; Central assistance to urban investment; Russia imports 500 tons of Chinese traditional medicine per year. It's really convinced, so many small compositions that ordinary people can't remember. I don't know who did it, so I took painstaking efforts. As for the issuance of 5 trillion treasury bonds, this is too easy to say, three years ago to fight the epidemic issued a trillion special treasury bonds, last year post-epidemic reconstruction issued another 750 billion farewell treasury bonds, some new debts to pay off old debts. If you really want to issue 5 trillion national bonds, what is the big problem, what do you think?
Of course, the first reaction in the face of the news market is not the truth of the news, regardless of three seven twenty-one, first grasp this life-saving straw to get the market up, this is a common thing in A shares, and when many people react, people have already made money. If it is really necessary to stimulate the market for small essays to rise, then next, although I dare not say that all these small essays are cashed in, but at least partially cashed, or none of them cashed, but at least there must be some other benefits, if there is no benefit, if there is no story to tell, the mood that has just improved a little will fall again.
If nothing is positive, Friday's trend is not weak, and there is room for imagination next, but if it is really because of so much profit, then the market is really weak, and it will take time for confidence to recover. The main funds still flowed out of 11.8 billion on Friday, which had been flowing out, it stands to reason that the market fell to this point, and the main funds should take the opportunity to pick up bargains, but the main force is still flowing out, relying on some large funds and small retail investors to support the market. Northbound funds were on rest on Friday. Prior to this, foreign capital had a net outflow of more than 20 billion yuan for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, and the outflow was quite large. It is unreliable to count on foreign capital, after all, the renminbi is now depreciating. The stock market is so bad that outflow is inevitable. But on Friday, the RMB suddenly appreciated, but unfortunately foreign capital is resting, if foreign capital opens, maybe on Friday foreign capital will have a certain effect on A-shares. In fact, the RMB exchange rate also rose on Friday, which was mainly related to the speech of the central bank, and by Monday there was a certain inflow of foreign capital, so A shares rose on Monday. So will foreign capital go long next Monday because of Friday's exchange rate rise, of course, this possibility exists, but the problem is that foreign capital has flowed out sharply for three consecutive days, and it has been seen that foreign capital is determined to flee, and the exchange rate is still around 7.07. Unless the exchange rate quickly returns above 7 yuan, then the confidence of foreign capital will increase. The change of the exchange rate is actually very closely related to the rise and fall of the A-share index, the exchange rate rises in the stock market, the exchange rate falls in the stock market, and the exchange rate rises means that the RMB-denominated assets will appreciate, and it will also stimulate the inflow of foreign capital. Vice versa.
Now it is still artificial intelligence to pick the beam, artificial intelligence is repeatedly active, in addition to this hot spot repeated hype, other hot funds do not seem to be interested, there is not much story to tell. NVIDIA's recent surge has stimulated a surge in computing power and memory chips in the A-share market. After the first application in the field of AI media, education, and games in the early stage, a sharp decline recently, there was a certain rebound on Friday, a real A-shaped trend.
ChatGPT leader Cambridge Technology has continuously bucked the trend and continuously hit a record high, Optical Library Technology has also reached a record high, and Golden Bridge Information has hit a new high in 8 years. Although the leader does not fall, many stocks are not so lucky. The bottom is not involved, do not chase up, many always can not change the chasing problems, sometimes chase in can also earn, the key to make money to forget the risk, and eventually it is difficult to retreat.
Whether Friday's artificial intelligence, or big data is the world of technology stocks, which has a lot to do with the transmission of the technology sector of the US stocks, NVIDIA's recent surge has suddenly ignited the US stock market has a hype enthusiasm for the concept of semiconductors, and the A-share technology theme is not willing to be lonely. But the US stock speculation is really performance-driven, and the A share speculation is all concepts, are expectations, whether the company can bring performance improvement in related fields in the future, it is difficult to say, so speculation A shares for the hype of related concept stocks you don't go up, don't show far.
Whether it is new energy vehicles, or photovoltaic wind power, the prospects are very good, and the performance growth is also good, although it has risen a lot before, but can not get up at once to the end, which is indeed difficult for investors who hold the new energy sector for a long time. It can also easily lead to the collapse of the new energy fund. The production and sales of new energy vehicles are still growing significantly, and with the decline in silicon wafer prices and the advancement of technology, the installed cost of photovoltaics is constantly declining, and the installed cost of wind power is declining, and the installed capacity continues to maintain high growth, but the market still does not buy it. In addition to the weak market, but also love the impact of some negative news, Great Wall Motor reported that BYD's two models were suspected of failing to meet emission standards, saying that it paid close attention to the filing and processing progress. The direction of the car collapsed, in fact, this is a good thing for the development of the automotive industry, I want to believe that Great Wall Motor report is not for nothing, mutual supervision between the industry This is a good thing for the future development of the entire industry, compared to the outside world, the enterprises within the industry have more say, they know best and understand the industry situation. This practice is worth learning from and encouraging, of course, this is not for him to fight each other, for the better and faster development of the enterprise.
The decline of new energy vehicles has also brought about the collapse of the photovoltaic sector, and some views believe that the decline of photovoltaic is pitted by Li Zhenguo of LONGi, because Li Zhenguo said in an interview with the media at the 16th (2023) International Solar Photovoltaic and Smart Energy (Shanghai) Conference and Exhibition (SNEC) that photovoltaic overcapacity is clearly taken out of context, whether it is a wrong interpretation by the media or what is the reason. Li Zhenguo said that photovoltaic power generation has become the world's fastest growing renewable energy, global photovoltaic has officially entered the terawatt era, and China may enter the terawatt era in 2030. In response to some media questions about "overcapacity", Li Zhenguo said that from the development of the past 10 years, overcapacity is always phased, and with the continuous advancement of industry technology and increasingly fierce competition, it has also accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity. Li Zhenguo expressed very clearly that overcapacity is staged, and the key lies in how you understand it. The future development space is huge, and LONGi has fallen from a historical high of 73 to 31, which has long been discounted, and LONGi's dynamic PE is only 16 times. The bullish trend in the downside may not work, but the bearish will certainly be amplified. If the stock price falls endlessly due to staged overcapacity, it just gives the opportunity for medium and long-term layout.
The collective decline of new energy has led to the ChiNext index hitting a new low in the year, because most of the new energy stocks are concentrated in the ChiNext, and it is the continuous decline of new energy that has led to the continuous decline of the ChiNext. Only when new energy bottoms out, ChiNext index can bottom.
In any case, there are more than 2,900 rises on Friday, and there are 52 up limit boards, more than 260 stocks with an increase of more than 5%, and only 25 stocks with a decline of more than 5%, which is a very good performance, although the trading volume can only be more than 820 billion, but Friday northbound funds are resting, if the northbound funds are included, Friday is almost 900 billion or so, which is a lot in recent days. After all, Friday's main funds only outflowed 11 billion, no longer continuing the previous sharp outflow. From the perspective of quantitative energy, Friday's rebound is still good, next Monday's rebound is expected to continue, whether the amount of one day can explain how much the problem, and then observe the relay of funds.
Under this kind of market, there was an 11 consecutive board, before everyone was worried that under the new regulations of the registration system, due to the 10-day increase of more than 100%, trading would be suspended and locked up in a small black room, so that the funds would be honest, and the number of consecutive boards would be greatly reduced, but the stock price of 11 consecutive boards had doubled earlier, that is, there was no suspension. What is this called, is it because the market is too weak now, and the policy can open the net? Policies change arbitrarily, and since the system has no clear conditions for application, it must be observed under any circumstances. If the system becomes arbitrary, then what credibility does this market have?
There are several key news after Friday's close, and we will look at the changes in the news to see if the fundamentals will support the future market.
According to the Ministry of Finance, from January to April, the economic operation of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises across the country was good, and the main efficiency indicators maintained growth. From January to April, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 2.622819 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; The total profit of state-owned enterprises was 1.43881 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%; The taxes and fees payable by state-owned enterprises were 2.02062 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. Profit growth is greater than revenue growth, and state-owned enterprises, as the main force to stabilize the economic market, have a good performance growth. This pair of speculative special estimates seem to have found a reason, whether the special estimates will be after the recent sharp decline, because this news is once again picked up by funds. I think the successive sharp gains in China Special Valuation are also an early reaction to good performance, and despite the recent decline, the increase is still small compared to the previous one. Although I don't expect this news to play much role in the speculation of the China Special Estimate, at least the medium estimate will stabilize next week, and if the China Special Estimate is unstable, the broader market will be unstable. So pay close attention to the trends of the special estimate.
State-owned enterprises have good profits, it is good not to represent the entire enterprise, look at this news, is it cold again. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell by 20.6% from January to April, and from January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 2.03288 billion yuan, down 20.6% year-on-year. From January to April, among industrial enterprises above designated size, state-controlled enterprises achieved a total profit of 757.98 billion yuan, down 17.9% year-on-year; The total profit of joint-stock enterprises was 1.49624 billion yuan, down 22.0%; Foreign-invested enterprises and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan invested enterprises achieved a total profit of MOP467.99 billion, down by 16.2%; The total profit of private enterprises was 524.03 billion yuan, down by 22.5%.
The continued unsatisfactory data is really worrying, but the continued downturn in the stock market cannot already reflect the pessimistic expectations of the market, which is still difficult to say. We do not deny that we know that there is momentum for repair after the market crash, but we still dare not have much hope for space, and how much upside the market can have in the future still depends on the economic recovery. It's hard to be optimistic, at least right now.