On May 22, the latest data from a third-party platform showed that the net value of a representative product managed by Li Bei fell 8.54% last week, while the net value of the product fell 4.66% the week before.
Banxia Investment said: "Recently, some mistakes have been made in stocks and commodities, the market is more extreme, and there have been a lot of losses, so there are more phased drawdowns." The company will adhere to the consistent risk control framework and has significantly reduced its position to control risk exposure. The remaining positions are already relatively low, leaving a number of positions with high odds and good fundamental trends. Li Bei herself also made the latest response in the circle of friends.
On April 7, Li Bei posted on the half-summer investment official Weiwei, sharing her latest views on the real estate industry and real estate stock investment opportunities. Li Bei believes that after the real estate industry has undergone supply-side reform, there will be a scissor gap between supply and demand in the future, and the asset revaluation flexibility of real estate enterprises that have not exploded is huge, among which she is particularly optimistic about high-quality real estate stocks in Hong Kong.
At that time, due to Li Bei's view, the A-share real estate sector soared nearly 4% in a single day. However, due to the tone set by the Politburo meeting and the sharp decline in real estate sales in April, the A-share real estate sector turned downward and continued to fall. At the same time, as the market is more pessimistic about China's economic recovery, China's 10-year government bond interest rate is close to 2.7%, and commodity futures such as copper, aluminum and iron ore have also fallen.
Therefore, the market speculates that Banxia Investment should be long real estate stocks in the equity market and long real estate chain related commodities in the commodity market before there is a big loss.
Let's look at soda ash futures, which have fallen all the way since the end of March, and recently accelerated their plunge. On May 22, the 2309 contract continued to increase its position by nearly 160,000 lots, and the total position rose to 1.31 million lots, plummeting 8.04% on the day, and the futures price fell by more than 40% during the year.
Everyone knows that last year's real estate market was extremely sluggish, and it experienced landmark events such as Evergrande thunderstorm and supply cut, and then the management issued three arrows to "ensure the delivery of buildings, guarantee projects, and ensure the main body", and the A-share real estate sector once skyrocketed. It was originally thought that China's economic recovery would lead to the recovery of the property market after the epidemic was lifted, but the real estate market returned to the downturn after a small climax in March. This shows that after releasing the demand accumulated during the epidemic in March, the demand in the real estate market has weakened again.
On May 5, Wind data showed that Oceanwide Holdings, Zhongtian Finance, Xinhua Alliance, Meijie Real Estate, Sunshine City, Songdu Shares, Shimao Shares, Yuetai Shares 8 real estate individual stock securities abbreviations were officially changed on the same day, respectively changed to *ST Oceanwide, *ST Zhongtian, *ST Xinlian, ST Meizhi, ST Sunshine City, *ST Songdu, ST Shimao, ST Yuetai.
ST Sunshine City fell for 12 consecutive days, ST Songdu fell for 12 consecutive days, ST Xinlian fell for 11 consecutive days, ST Shimao fell for 9 consecutive days, we will not count them one by one below.
A few days ago, *ST Zhongtian issued an announcement that as of May 18, 2023, the closing price of Zhongtian Financial Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "*ST Zhongtian") has been below 1 yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, which has touched the transaction-type compulsory delisting regulations of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Stock Listing Rules (2023 Revision) (hereinafter referred to as the "Stock Listing Rules").
Perhaps as Li Bei said, there will be many bankruptcies in China's real estate industry, and after the real estate industry has undergone supply-side reform, there will be a scissor gap between supply and demand in the future, industry concentration will increase, and the asset revaluation flexibility of real estate enterprises that have not exploded is huge, but this will inevitably undergo a cruel reshuffle.
For shareholders, the best choice for investing in the real estate industry is state-owned enterprises and leaders, and for ordinary people, they should also pay attention to choosing developers.
Risk Warning:
The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently