When the total market value of Sany's listed companies reaches 1 trillion, you can get a one-time bonus of 1 million with the "trillion market value commemorative coupon"!
The above "tempting" reward was set by Liang Wengen, the founder of Sany Group, on February 28, and it was also an important moment for Sany Heavy Industry to start its "third entrepreneurship". However, what people did not expect was that in less than three months, this business giant who had just set a trillion goal chose to retreat into the background.
On the evening of May 15, Sany Group officially released news that Liang Wengen no longer served as chairman of Sany Group due to age, was no longer responsible for the group's daily operation and scheduling, no longer sat on duty, and no longer participated in foreign affairs activities. After the news was disclosed, the media and investors were constantly arguing about this, in addition to discussing the reasons for Liang Wengen's resignation, everyone was naturally more concerned about where the "giant ship" of Sany Group would sail in the future without Liang Wengen at the helm.
In fact, although Liang Wengen has previously set an exciting trillion yuan market capitalization target, Sany Group's situation is not so optimistic today.
In recent years, as the entire construction machinery industry has entered a downward cycle, Sany Group, as the industry leader, has also been greatly affected; Taking its subsidiary Sany Heavy Industry as an example, the performance of Sany Heavy Industry has continued to decline in the past two years, and its net profit has fallen by 64.49% in 2022; In terms of stock prices, as of the close of May 22, Sany Heavy Industry's stock price closed at 16.09 yuan / share, compared with the highest point of 49.25 yuan / share in 2021, now Sany Heavy Industry's stock price has been "knee-chopped", and the market value has shrunk by more than 280 billion.
Obviously, Sany Group is currently subject to the "shackles" of the downward cycle, and now Liang Wengen's sudden resignation as chairman has filled the future of Sany with "fog".
The "three startups" of the machinery giant
In the 90s of the 20th century, the domestic economy entered a stage of rapid development, and high-rise buildings rose up in the city.
However, most of the heavy machinery on the construction site, from excavators to concrete pump trucks to cranes, is basically imported from abroad, and domestic heavy machinery has not been developed because of backward technology; It is in this context that the Sany Group, founded by Liang Wengen, was born, standing up to the sky of domestic heavy machinery.
The development history of Sany Group can be summarized as "three entrepreneurship". In 1983, after graduating from the Central South Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Liang Wengen was assigned to the machinery factory under the Ministry of Ordnance Industry - Hongyuan Machinery Factory, in the eyes of outsiders, this job can definitely be called "fragrant food", but the young Liang Wengen is not restless, in 1983 Liang Wengen abandoned the iron rice bowl in his hand, and Tang Xiuguo, Mao Zhongwu, Yuan Jinhua three "co-workers" resigned from the machinery factory, resolutely chose to go to the sea to do business and start a business.
However, Liang Wengen's entrepreneurial road was not all smooth sailing, and the four of them sold sheep and wine together, and crossed the whole of China to do business, but they were unsuccessful.
Fortunately, the hard work paid off, and by chance, Liang Wengen learned that welding materials were in short supply in the market, so he cobbled together 60,000 yuan to establish Lianyuan Maotang Welding Materials Factory, which officially opened the door to business; With the help of university teacher Zhai Dengke, the material factory successfully developed 105 copper-based solder and achieved great success, and 5 years later, the welding material factory has become the largest private enterprise in Loudi, Hunan at that time, which is the "first entrepreneurship" of Sany Group.
Although the material factory was already very successful at the time, Liang Wengen did not intend to stop there. After two years of research, Liang Wengen proposed the "double advance" strategy: enter the central city - Changsha; Enter the big industry - equipment manufacturing. In 1993, Liang Wengen changed the name of the company to "Sany Group", transformed Lianyuan's material factory into "Sany Material Group Co., Ltd.", and moved the headquarters to Changsha, the capital of Hunan Province, thus officially starting the "second entrepreneurship".
Compared with the first start-up, Liang Wengen's second venture is actually more difficult. Due to the backwardness of technology, at that time domestic heavy machinery can basically only be imported from abroad, Caterpillar, Hitachi and other international giants occupy most of the domestic market, coupled with a large number of state-owned heavy machinery factories to compete, Liang Wengen chose to enter the equipment manufacturing industry is undoubtedly equivalent to survival in the cracks, but it is in this environment, Sany Group has successfully opened the situation with trailer pump products.
According to the media, after making the decision to enter the equipment manufacturing industry, Sany Group used most of the money earned by Lianyuan Material Factory to support the production of concrete pump trucks, and developed a concrete pumping system with the spirit of "dead knock", and after 5 years, Sany Group's annual revenue of trailer pump products exceeded 200 million, and finally won nearly 40% of the global market share; Later, Sany Group entered the excavator market and fought all the way in the excavator market, becoming the leader of the global machinery industry.
On February 28 this year, Liang Wengen proposed that Sany would start its third venture and set a goal of "trillion market value" - the total market value of its listed companies reached 1 trillion yuan.
In terms of specific content, the goal of Sany Group's third venture is refined as "333, 366" - 300 billion sales, 30,000 engineers, 3,000 workers; Construction machinery, port machinery, coal machines and mining vehicles have become the world's first, wind energy equipment, new energy commercial vehicles, petroleum equipment, battery equipment, hydrogen energy equipment, photovoltaic equipment have become China's first, industrial Internet, power battery, photovoltaic industry, building industrialization, environmental protection equipment, investment coordination has achieved a breakthrough.
However, unlike the previous two start-ups, with Liang Wengen stepping down as chairman in February, Sany Group's "third venture" lost its most important helmsman.
Cycle "shackles" that are difficult to get rid of
Although Liang Wengen started his third venture in February and shouted the goal of "trillion market value", in fact, Sany Heavy Industry's situation is not optimistic.
As the saying goes, "everything has a cycle", the construction machinery industry is naturally the same. Heavy machinery is mainly used in civil engineering at the front end of real estate and infrastructure investment, and the entire industry is highly related to the investment situation in real estate and infrastructure industry, and also has a high correlation with the focus of domestic economic development.
In the past decade, the construction machinery industry has entered a short downward cycle from 2012 to 2015. At that time, when infrastructure and real estate investment both contracted, the decline of the industry was very obvious, and Sany Heavy Industry, as the leader of the industry, bore the brunt of it. According to statistics, Sany Heavy Industry's performance began to decline rapidly in 2012, and by 2015, the revenue had fallen to 23.36 billion, and the net profit had fallen to less than 5 million.
However, after a short downward cycle, in 2016, with the relaxation of property market supervision, the monetization of shed reform and the vigorous promotion of local governments to promote the construction of new cities, infrastructure and real estate investment began to recover sharply, and the highly related construction machinery industry also recovered rapidly. According to media statistics, domestic sales of excavators in 2019 were 220643 units, which has exceeded the historical peak in 2011; In 2020, domestic excavator sales reached 292864 units, continuing to set a new record.
As an industry leader, Sany Group is also the biggest beneficiary of the "great prosperity" of this round of construction machinery industry. According to the financial report, Sany Heavy Industry's revenue jumped to 100.1 billion in 2020 from 76.23 billion last year, directly breaking through the 100 billion revenue mark, and the revenue growth rate was as high as 31.25%; The net profit also reached 13.95 billion yuan, a record high; in terms of stock prices, in February 2021, Sany Heavy Industry's stock price hit a record high of 49.25 yuan, and the total market value directly exceeded 400 billion, which was quite eye-catching.
However, there will always be an end to the upcycle. Entering 2022, with the "winter" of the real estate industry, the "great prosperity" of the construction machinery industry, which has lasted for more than 5 years, is also coming to an end. According to data compiled by the China Business Industry Research Institute, the domestic construction machinery industry is in a downward adjustment period in 2022, superimposed on factors such as slowing economic growth, repeated new crown epidemics, and insufficient effective project operation rate, the domestic construction machinery market demand has been greatly reduced, and the industry's revenue will drop from 900 billion yuan to 850 billion yuan.
After the industry entered a downward cycle, Sany Heavy Industry was not able to cross the cycle as expected. From the financial report, the performance of Sany Heavy Industry has declined significantly in the past two years, and its net profit in 2022 is only 4.273 billion, a decline of 64.49%; From the stock price point of view, as of the close of May 22, Sany Heavy Industry's stock price closed at 16.09 yuan / share, compared with the highest point of 49.25 yuan / share in 2021, now Sany Heavy Industry's stock price has been "knee-chopped", and the market value has shrunk by more than 280 billion.
Obviously, today's Sany Heavy Industry is once again locked by the "shackles" of the cycle as it did in 2012. In this context, it is obviously very difficult for Sany Group to achieve the goal of "trillion market capitalization".
Is there still a chance for a "trillion market capitalization"?
From the current point of view, it is obviously very difficult for today's Sany Group to achieve the goal of "trillion market capitalization".
Stock prices and market capitalization are often the reflection of the company's operating conditions, and in the past two years, affected by the continuous decline in performance, the stock prices of the three listed companies of Sany Group have fallen.
As of the close of trading on May 22, the market value of Sany Heavy Industry was 136.5 billion, the market value of Sany Heavy Energy was 41.08 billion, and the market value of Sany International, which was listed on the Hong Kong stock market, was 34.81 billion Hong Kong dollars, which was only 31 billion converted into RMB, and the combined market value of the three listed companies was less than 210 billion, which is obviously far from the trillion market value.
Obviously, only when the performance recovers and the operating conditions improve, can the stock prices of the three companies stop falling and rise, and the "trillion market value" goal of Sany Group can be achieved; From the current point of view, Sany Group wants to reverse the continuous weakening of the operating situation, "going to sea" may be one of the few and feasible methods.
Prior to this, many institutional investors believed that Sany could escape the impact of China's real estate and infrastructure cycle through its international business, even Sany itself. According to the target previously set by Sany Heavy Industry, it plans to achieve the goal of overseas revenue of 10 billion US dollars during the 14th Five-Year Plan period (until 2025), and the company's overseas revenue in 2020 will be 14.1 billion, accounting for 14.20% of the total revenue, in other words, Sany Heavy Industry's annual overseas revenue needs to increase by more than 30%.
According to data compiled by the China Business Industry Research Institute, the competitive advantage of the international market of construction machinery will continue to improve in 2022, and the export volume will increase significantly. The annual export value reached another record of US$44.302 billion, building on the record US$34 billion in 2021. The net increase in exports was another net increase of 10.28 billion US dollars on the basis of more than 13 billion US dollars in the previous year, and the net increase in two years reached 23.34 billion US dollars, it is clear that overseas business has become the "antidote" of Sany Group and even the entire domestic heavy machinery industry.
However, from the current point of view, although the revenue of overseas business has been growing, it is obviously very difficult to bring Sany Group out of trouble.
According to the financial report, Sany Heavy Industry's international business revenue in 2022 will be 36.57 billion yuan, accounting for 45.7% of the revenue; In 2021, Sany Group's international business revenue was 24.85 billion, accounting for 23.41% of revenue, and in just one year, its international business revenue increased by more than 10 billion, and the proportion of revenue increased by more than 20%, it is clear that Sany Heavy Industry's overseas business is continuing to make efforts. However, from the final result - in 2022, Sany Heavy Industry's revenue fell by 24.38%, net profit fell by 64.49%, and the net profit margin also fell from 15.97% in 2020 to 5.5%, it is clear that overseas business is not the real "antidote" of Sany Group.
From all indications, as the industry enters a downward cycle, it will be difficult for Sany Group to achieve the goal of "trillion market value" in the short term, and with the sudden departure of "helmsman" Liang Wengen as chairman, the future of Sany Group is full of "fog".