Look at the data on the weekend and think cranky.
The most popular saying in recent years is that a whale falls and everything comes to life.
This statement is beautiful and in line with the mainstream narrative mentality in social division: the behemoth collapses, nourishing a large number of prosperous small creatures.
I once took it for granted that this was "scientific common sense". After listening to too much, one day I suddenly felt that something was wrong, and I specially checked the source and found that this "whale fall" is indeed a scientific term, that is-
After the whale dies, the huge carcass sinks to the deep sea bed, constantly decomposing and consuming, providing a variety of different marine organisms with rich organic matter, which is a process that nourishes the marine ecology.
This sentence should have caught fire in April 2020, when Chinese scientists first discovered the ecosystem of whale falls in the deep sea of the South China Sea during an ocean research mission, and then a poem "A Whale Falls and All Things Are Born" was published in the People's Daily by Liu Shiyao.
Then, in the Chinese world, this phrase suddenly became popular, and the fire became "common sense".
Especially after the second half of 2021, starting from the education and training industry, Internet platforms, real estate, one after another "whale fall", have not seen anything born.
I don't know marine biology, just guessing, maybe whale life is more eco-friendly than whale fall?
After all, a sea area frequented by the top species "whales" in the marine food chain must be rich in species and have a good ecological cycle, otherwise it cannot be supported.
From 2021 to 2022, the super big blue whale supporting China's credit market, the real estate industry, plummeted. I also struggled several times in the middle, no bandaging, no medicine, no healing, no results.
Last week said the recession was a chain of events. In fact, the so-called "economy" - that is, the concept of "ecology, circulation, organism", does not have independent organs and functions.
If an industry acts as the credit engine of an economy, then it can basically be regarded as the heart, blood production and supply. Blood supply is not available, and weakness is inevitable.
The social zero data in 2023 is very interesting to look at it in a little detail.
1. The base period effect distorts the (total) year-on-year data.
The total amount of social zero in April was 3.49 trillion yuan, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year - quite gratifying, but the problem is that many places closed in April last year, -11%, which is a depression in the past many years. If the April data of 2022 and 2023 are combined to look at the average, and then compared with 2019, the growth rate of social zero in April is 2.6%, far lower than the average of 9.5% in 2015-2019.
Taking catering as an example, the growth rate of the industry has reached more than 40%, but if you combine 2022 and 2023, compared with 2019, the growth rate will become -1.5%. You see, we think the lively dining is negative.
So, sometimes, what you see is not necessarily the truth.
2. Real estate whales are lagging behind and dying.
Household appliances and audio-visual equipment 4.7%
Cultural Office Supplies - 4.9%
Furniture 3.4%
Building & Decoration Materials - 11.2%
In fact, this logic is not complicated, last week's article
"Black Swan" will not fly solo, it will always be a series of events"
It is also said that the operation of modern economies is a series of non-independent events, and the butterfly effect can be seen everywhere. This whale fall also lowered the surrounding economic ecology by several octaves.
A few days ago, I had dinner with a few good friends, and during the dinner, someone asked a question -
"Come, let's think about it, what industries can fill the credit collapse in real estate?"
There was a long silence.
This is not a frivolous teasing. In fact, this is the core topic related to China's future economic growth, employment opportunities, and investment income.
Credit is the engine of a credit economy, and you have to find new power, new energy, to restart that engine.
I hesitated: "New energy? ”
"It's too small to support alone."
"Anything else?"
……
There is really no definitive answer. If there is, it may change market expectations.
Therefore, you may as well vote and try to answer this question based on your own experience and knowledge. What industry do you think can replace the super credit engine of real estate? Let us know in the comments section.
New energy industry
Consumer industry
Infrastructure industry
Education industry
Internet industry
other
No substitute
Because of the above logic, we will find that the logic of the current "short-term capital game" in the capital market is above all else.
Let's talk about two examples:
Market rumors say that two North American manufacturers have updated their demand planning guidelines for 800G optical modules next year, and the giant of the track Zhongji Xuchuang will immediately usher in a 20%+ surge in a week;
Chinese ships with a market value of 100 billion yuan, because the recent shipbuilding completion and new orders remained stable, immediately rose by 10% within a week.
Can it be sustained? Who cares? After all, "in the long run, we all died."
In Treasure Island circles, the opportunities and risks of these sectors are often discussed.
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For details, please visit "Xiangshuai Treasure Island"
What do you think of the short-term hype? Will it participate in short-term hype?