Cai Lian News Agency, May 21 (edit square) Under the global semiconductor winter, the RF chip as the cornerstone of mobile phone communication function is also "cold wind", on the one hand, international giants rely on first-mover advantage to dominate, and use patents to constitute a full range of blockade of the country, while transforming to seize the automobile, Internet of Things and other markets. On the other hand, local manufacturers have poured into the low-end field of RF, and the homogenization phenomenon is serious. The total market value of the domestic RF chip leader Zhuosheng Micro has evaporated by hundreds of billions, and the break-up of new stocks such as Huizhiwei is a bleak epitome.
For domestic RF manufacturers, the current localization rate is still very low, and the market opportunity of RF front-end is still huge. In addition, A-share listed companies such as Zhuosheng Micro and Maijie Technology have achieved breakthroughs in the field of SAW filters, and the superimposed smartphone market is expected to usher in a bottoming recovery after a continuous downward cycle, and domestic manufacturers are expected to usher in the "light in the dark night".
▌RF chip international giants monopolize the market and block patents, Chinese mainland company "didn't even gnaw bones"
According to the Canalys report, global smartphone shipments fell 11% to less than 1.2 billion units in 2022, making it the worst year in nearly a decade.
Some analysts pointed out that although from the perspective of various RF chip patents, domestic production seems to have reached its peak, but in fact, in more than 20 years of history, RF chip technology has not changed much, and thousands of patents of each company in the world constitute a comprehensive blockade of the country.
What is more difficult is that the Matthew effect in the field of RF chips is prominent, and American and Japanese manufacturers dominate. Yole data shows that the products of five manufacturers, Skyworks, Broadcom, Qorvo, Qualcomm and Murata in Japan, occupy more than 80% of the market share in 2021 and 2022.
Domestic enterprises such as RDA, National Feiqiao, Vichuangxin, and Weier can only share the remaining 20% of the market share. Industry insiders lamented that American companies in the field of RF chips are eating meat, Taiwanese companies are drinking soup, and Chinese mainland companies have not even gnawed bones.
The battlefield of RF chips has always been ruthless, and the former players such as Freescale, Texas Instruments, Mewell, NVIDIA, etc. have withdrawn from the market, and existing companies continue to integrate and merge, giving birth to one after another unattainable giants. Qorvo, for example, was formed in 2015 by the merger of RF Micro Devices and Tri Quint Semiconductor.
In the past few years, transformation has become a major theme of RF chip giants. Qualcomm is expanding its RF front-end with a series of WiFi 7 front-end modules, not only mobile phone RF front-end, but also to win the automotive and IoT markets. Skyworks has accelerated its expansion into electric and hybrid vehicles, industrial and motor control, power and other segments by acquiring Silicon Labs' infrastructure and automotive-related businesses. Another RF giant, Qorvo, has taken aim at the Internet of Things, automobiles and power supplies.
▌A-share leader Zhuosheng Micro's stock price fell by 80% at a high + performance thunderstorm, newly listed new shares frequently broke Domestic RF chips will enter a three-year difficult period?
A-share domestic RF chip leader Zhuosheng Micro burst out of performance, not only the net profit in 2022 fell sharply by 49.92%, but also fell by 74.64% in the first quarter of 2023. Zhuosheng Micro has staged a capital myth that has risen more than 40 times in two years, and the total market value has exceeded 170 billion yuan. However, since July 2022, the company's share price has begun to turn downward, and as of October 12, 2022, the total market value fell to 42.4 billion yuan, nearly 80% from its peak.
The industry pointed out that from the perspective of revenue composition, the main business of Zhuosheng Micro is divided into two parts: RF discrete devices and RF modules, both of which are used in the field of smart phones. In 2022, the sales volume of smartphones in the Chinese market may only be about 255 million, a year-on-year decrease of 19%, and sales in all quarters showed negative year-on-year growth. The weakness of the downstream smartphone market will inevitably have an impact on the performance of Joyson.
Domestic RF chip company Huizhiwei officially landed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Science and Technology Innovation Board on Monday, breaking on the first day of listing, falling 8.94% as of the close. Prior to this, RF chip manufacturers Aojie Technology, Zhenlei Technology, and Vecton also suffered an opening break, with a maximum decline of more than 30% on the day.
In fact, on the eve of the outbreak of 5G, Chinese local manufacturers have poured into the RF front-end market and grown rapidly. The number of domestic enterprises participating in the competition in the field of RF front-end is increasing, the homogenization of domestic RF chips is serious, and domestic RF enterprises are still fully competitive in the low-end field. "Price war" is the main competitive strategy in the current domestic RF chip market.
As Zhong Lin, founder of domestic RF manufacturer Sanwu Microelectronics, said, domestic RF front-end chips have entered disorderly competition, and nearly 30 manufacturers participate in the competition under the domestic WiFi FEM market size of 3 billion yuan. Domestic RF front-end chip bargaining has no bottom line, just entered 2023, WiFi6 FEM price war has entered the butcher era. He also pointed out, "Now is not the worst time for RF front-end chip competition, there will be more competitors in each RF subdivision track, and domestic RF chips will enter a three-year difficult period." ”
▌Shimmer in the dark night: the local replacement space of RF chips is vast Some manufacturers have achieved breakthroughs in the field of SAW filters
With the rapid development of communication technologies such as 5G, the demand for RF front-end devices has surged. Market analysts pointed out that the smartphone market is expected to usher in a bottoming recovery after a continuous downward cycle, and domestic high-quality RF manufacturers are expected to expand their market share and have broad growth space in the future. According to Yole, the market for RF front-end was over $19 billion in 2021 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of about 5.8% by 2028, reaching $26.9 billion.
In the long run, the RF track has a vast space, and localization still has unlimited opportunities. At present, domestic head RF front-end manufacturers do not yet have the R & D and manufacturing capabilities of high-performance filters and multiplexers, and need to rely on outsourcing.
Fortunately, in terms of SAW filters, manufacturers such as Zhuosheng Micro, Deqinghuaying, Haoda Electronics, and Meizu Technology have achieved breakthroughs, among which the SAW filters produced by Maijie Technology and CLP 26 have entered the mobile phone supply chain such as Huawei and TCL, and the SAW filters of Haoda Electronics have entered the mobile phone supply chain such as ZTE and Meizu. In terms of BAW filters, there are still relatively few companies that can independently develop BAW filters, only Tianjin North, Hantianxia and other companies.
The record of investor relations activities disclosed by Maxwell last week shows that DiFEM, LDiFEM, GPS modules and other products that integrate self-produced SAW filters and high-performance filters have passed the audit of brand customers and have begun to be gradually mass-produced and delivered. Everbright Securities Research Report pointed out that Zhuosheng Micro SAW filter and high-performance filter have mass production capabilities, duplexer and quadplexer have been wafer tape-out, and the preliminary verification results have reached the design index. Downstream mobile phone demand is expected to recover in 23H2, while the company's new products such as filters and transmitter modules are expected to increase, continuing to be optimistic about the company's modular layout and the competitiveness of RF front-end.
(Cai Lian News Square )