Sina Financial News On August 7, the "2019 Boao Real Estate Forum" hosted by the viewpoint real estate agency was held in Hainan from August 6 to 9. The theme is "Reconstructing and Balancing the Multidimensional World of Real Estate". Ba Shusong, Chief Economist of China Banking Association and Executive Dean of HSBC Financial Research Institute of Peking University, attended and delivered a speech.
Ba Shusong, Chief Economist of the China Banking Association and Executive Dean of the HSBC Institute of Finance at Peking University
Ba Shusong said that now he often talks about houses with his graduate students, and ten or twenty years ago, people would say "try harder to get a down payment", but now master's and doctoral graduates work in Beijing's financial street, "I asked him what the house is like?" They said, "Teacher Ba, don't talk to me about this, we don't want to," and they all found a place to rent.
He believes that in the face of changes in the external environment, from a long-term perspective, when expanding domestic demand, we cannot leave the intensity of stimulation to the real estate market, hold the house price, the house price cannot rise too high, and guide the progress and transformation of technology, at this time the currency cannot be excessively loose.
The following is a transcript:
Ba Shusong: The reason why I have a lot of respect for the real estate industry and Mr. Chen Qizong, we in the financial industry have a joke that there are many people who earn 3 times in the capital market in the previous year, and very few people earn 1 times in 3 years, so if the real estate market is a long-term cycle asset, we will expand it a little, for example, a development cycle, 6 years to earn 3 times a lot, in 12 years to earn 1 times may not be so much. So how to have a waiting angle through the cycle, I want to talk about two points.
First, professors Fan Gang, Qiu Xiaohua and Mr. Chen Qizong just talked about respecting the market and how to understand the current real estate regulation and control policies.
As real estate developers, we may also think about it, in addition to respecting the laws of the market, we must also consider some social factors. It is from the perspective of the government to think, why is it so strictly regulated? If house prices continue to rise, for example, in another 5 to 10 years, will our young people be just as difficult? No matter how hard he worked, he couldn't afford to buy a house.
I often talk to my graduate students now, and that's all of a conversation. 10 years, 20 years ago, I would say, work hard and get a down payment. Now that I have graduated with a master's degree or a doctorate and work in Beijing's Financial Street, I asked him what was the situation of the house? They said, "Teacher Ba, don't talk to me about this, we don't want to," and they all found a place to rent on their own. If house prices continue to rise, will this similar situation occur? So since we have this discussion, we are saying that we must respect the laws of the market and also consider the policy objectives of some governments.
Second, when we are a little confused about the short-term view and short-term trend, we put the observation cycle a little longer, or compare it with history, history will not repeat itself, but it will always be pressed a little rhyme. For example, looking at the trade friction between the United States and Japan in that year, which created the four Asian tigers and the transfer of Japan's industry, China seized this opportunity. Now that the U.S. and China are in trade friction, we are happy to see Vietnam.
We also see that after the Plaza Accord, it is not only Japan that is affected, but also Germany. But in terms of coping, Japan and Germany have taken different paths and behaved completely differently. So we see a sharp easing of Japan's internal and want to expand domestic demand, and as a result, a large amount of money flows into the real estate market, the external appreciation, and the internal relaxation. Germany, on the contrary, is the appreciation of the currency, which is relatively stable for the euro area and appreciated externally.
This is an intuitive implication for policymakers that house prices should not rise too high, and that they should also guide the progress and transformation of technology. Money cannot be overly loose at this time. Because the external impact occurs, panic occurs, giving the interior a great stimulus.
I will expand domestic demand, but I want to hold down the house price for you, and then try to direct the funds to the field of corporate innovation, which is the sustainable way. For example, the science and technology innovation board, the listing of new technologies.
This is the second point, from a long-term perspective, perhaps these decision-makers have received a very definite revelation from Japan, that is, in the response to expanding domestic demand, they cannot leave the stimulus to the real estate market and hold the house price, which is a very important policy option for them.