On May 17, Beijing time, the NBA lottery ceremony ended, and the Rockets had a 14% chance of drawing the top pick, but in the end they only drew the fourth pick. The Spurs were lucky enough to draw the top pick, and there is a high probability that they will choose Venbanyama.
For the Rockets, who are aiming for the top pick, the result of not getting the top pick or even the first three picks is certainly disappointing, but to a certain extent, the Rockets are also lucky, they avoid the big hole in the passive form. On the one hand, because the Rockets are ready to enter the winning mode next season, adding another piece of jade to be carved does not have so much time to cultivate. On the other hand, it is because of the hidden dangers of the Bunbanyama itself.
The small-ball era of the Spurs and Warriors is indeed coming to an end, and the tall interior is gradually returning to the main stage. The MVP battle between Jokic and Embiid has been going on for three years, and of the four teams that reached the division finals this year, the Celtics, Lakers and Nuggets all have tall interior linemen, and only Heat center Adebayo is a small-ball center.
Wen Banyama meets the "high" requirements, but in this era, Wen Banyama's positioning, playing characteristics, injury risks, and counter-weaknesses make his future full of uncertainty. In this era of short videos that like to create Internet celebrities, Wen Banyama is regarded as the next superstar, he is regarded by many media as "the first man in the league in the future" and "the best young player ever in Europe", but if he is a superstar, it may be difficult for Venbanyama to meet expectations. To realize his potential, Venbanyama needs to pass three hurdles.
Level 1: Confrontation level
In recent years, the league has constantly revised its rules to encourage offense, and many famous and current players have complained that "the league is increasingly discouraged by confrontation." These phenomena and rhetoric create a "NBA is not confrontational" bias. Perhaps, the intensity of the regular season confrontation is indeed average, but in this year's playoffs, how fierce the confrontation is, fans who have watched the game understand.
Take today's Western Conference Finals as an example, Anthony Davis vs. Jokic, in theory, Davis is already the most likely interior defender in the league to limit Jokic, but in front of Jokic, the 114-kilogram Davis can't withstand the 128-kilogram Jokic, especially when defending low-post offense and rebounding.
From the point of view of technical characteristics, Venbanyama is equivalent to the slender version of Davis, he is taller than Davis, but the confrontation is a weakness. Although Venbanyama has been training strength this year and gaining weight step by step, the current weight of Venbanyama is only 104 kilograms. If Venbanyama stands in front of Jokic and Embiid, it is inevitable that he will be swallowed alive. The Alliance is indeed returning to the era of super insiders, but the Alliance is not a hemp pole-type inside.
Don't have the illusion that "if you have height, you can grab a lot of rebounds", Porzingis is 2.21 meters tall and weighs only 108 kilograms, and he has never averaged more than 10 rebounds per game in a single season, a single-season high of only 9.5, and a career average of only 7.9.
The style of the current era does not encourage low-post offense, and the confrontation problem of Venbanyama is not exposed in the individual defense most of the time, but the rebound fight runs through every round, and the rebound fight pays attention to confrontation, card position, with the confrontation of Ventanyama, to the NBA, can he average 10+ rebounds per game? This season, Venbanyama has averaged 9.9 rebounds per game in Ligue 1.
The expectation of the outside world for Wen Banyama is that he can gain weight like Alphabet Brother in the future and become a devil muscle, but everyone's physique is different. Alphabet did not suffer from various injuries after gaining weight, but the situation in Venbanyama was different. At present, Venbanyama has not carried out rapid weight gain training,
"Over time, Venbanyama will gain weight, but it would be wrong to focus on gaining weight now," Venbanyama's agent, Ndiaye, said in response to questions from the outside world. ”
This brings us to the next level, the injury level.
Level 2: Injury and illness
At a young age, Venbanyama already has a history of injuries. In December 2020, Venbanyama developed a stress fracture in his leg. In November 2021, Venbanyama missed a month with a broken finger. In December, Venbanyama missed more than a month with a contusion of his right shoulder blade. In June 2022, Venbanyama suffered a muscle injury season reimbursement.
The good news for Venbanyama is that he has not experienced a particularly serious injury. In addition, Venbanyama's team has been consciously protecting him, they helped Venbanyama hire trainer Alziye, who is experienced in protecting tall athletes from foot injuries, Yao Ming and Irgoskas have suffered stress fractures, and they have tried to help Venbanyama avoid it. For example, Arziye will ask Venbanyama to take off his shoes and socks and crawl only on his toes and toes to strengthen his core strength, and he even dedicates a lot of time to helping Venbanyama do some training for the big toe.
Since last September, Venbanyama has played more than 47 consecutive matches without missing a single match due to injury, thanks to the team's logistical support and targeted training program.
The bad news is that in NBA history, there are 26 players who are 2.21 meters tall, and only 7 have achieved certain achievements in their careers, namely Yao Ming, Ralph Sampson, Sabonis Sr., Ilgoskas, Rick Schmitz, Mark Eaton, and Porzingis. Of the seven players, except for Schmitz and Eaton, the other five have a history of injury.
Sabonis Sr. already had a lot of injuries when he entered the NBA, not to mention it. Yao Ming and Ilgoskas are a type, both of whom have experienced multiple foot injuries, and Yao Ming has also been knocked down by knee injuries. Porzingis was also regarded as a "unicorn inside" when he first entered the industry, with three-point blocks and autonomous offensive ability, but due to injuries and other factors, Porzingis can now only be a second-in-command, or even three-in-command, Wizards.
To some extent, Magic player Boll Poll is better suited to the Vembanyama, who has shown a similar technical profile after emerging from injury this season, with 15.2 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1 block per 36 minutes this season. Originally, Boll was considered a quasi-lottery show before his injury.
The injury hurdle is Vimbanyama's biggest challenge, as his one-time rival, last year's top picker Holmgren, was reimbursed without playing a second in his rookie season. From the historical data, the prospects of this hemp pole type interior line are indeed not optimistic. In the NBA, where the competition is more intense, the pace is faster, and the schedule is more intense, can Venbanyama avoid major injuries?
The third level: positioning and playing level
With the height of Venbanyama, his position should automatically be attributed to the center. But with Venbanyama's confrontational ability, it will be very difficult for him to play center, and perhaps the most suitable position for Ventanyama is power forward or even small forward. Of course, in the era of position blurring, the specific position is not so clear, but one thing is certain, the position of the Venban Yama will be relatively outside, and the defense will be mainly assisted defense.
It is worth paying attention to what style of play Venbanyama takes offensively, and with his performance in Ligue 1, he is the type who can be inside and out, and his ball-carrying jump shot is even reminiscent of Kevin Durant. However, there is a huge deception in the highlight video highlights, and it is the problem of Wen Banyama to be able to be able to be refined but not refined.
The data system shows that Venbanyama has only 32.5% jump shots, 32.4% three-point shots, and 20.7% three-point shots, and those carefully edited highlights mask his inefficiency. In the words of draft expert Vesseny: "The highlight lens looks strong, but in fact the results are not as good as the highlights reflect." ”
At a higher level, it is unclear whether Venbanyama's ability to handle better defenders and more refined defensive strategies can handle it.
Therefore, the prospects of Wen Banyama depend to a certain extent on the positioning that the team gives him. In today's era, excellent interior linemen are basically divided into several categories: Jokic's offensive passing is a separate category, Embiid and Davis's ball-holding attack + blocking type is one category, Horford, Big Lopez this space-type interior is a category, Capela and other defensive + pie-eating types are a category.
Strong team insiders, basically in these four categories, which kind of Wen Banyama belongs to? He seems to be closer to Embiid and Davis, but his autonomous offensive ability is not so strong. He has the ability to project, but he doesn't meet the standards of a space-type interior line. Jokic's type, Venbanyama even more dared not think. Perhaps, in the early days of Venbanyama, being a high-end Capela is more suitable for him.
Fortunately, at the beginning of his career, Popovich may well have the opportunity to be coached by Popovich, who may be able to promote the growth of Venbanyama.
epilogue
Over the past year, Venbanyama has continued to grow in popularity, with executives even predicting that the market value of his team could skyrocket by $500 million. However, in this day and age, we have seen all kinds of exaggerated predictions before the draft, Cunningham, Jaylen Green, Jabari Smith, Zion Williamson, etc. have all been hyped, but they either fell short of expectations or were knocked down by injuries as expected.
What does the future hold for Vembanyama? Before he stepped into the NBA, it was better to be cautiously optimistic about him.