Mutation! The national pig price decline area expanded rapidly to 24 places, and the decline was wider than in previous days. According to the monitoring of many pig data, on May 16, the average price of foreign three-yuan pigs fell to 14.15 yuan / kg, down 0.16 yuan / kg from yesterday, just one step away from the 6 yuan area.
The latest pig prices in 31 provinces and cities across the country are as follows:
From the perspective of pig prices in various provinces and cities, today's pig price trend fell 24 places and only 7 rose, and the downward storm swept across the north and south. Among them, the province with the largest decline was Anhui Province, down 0.22 yuan/kg from yesterday; It was followed by Liaoning Province, down 0.2 yuan/kg from yesterday. In the rising area, only the pig price in Guangdong Province increased significantly, with a single-day increase of 0.39 yuan/kg.
From the perspective of national divisions, pig prices in central and northwest China remained basically stable, pig prices in northeast, north, east and southwest China were stable and declining, and pig prices in southern China fluctuated the most. As of May 16, the province with the highest pig price in the country is Guangdong Province, with a quotation of 15.28 yuan / kg, and the province with the lowest pig price in the country is Hainan Province, with a quotation of 13.7 yuan / kg, and the pig price in a total of 8 provinces and cities in the country has fallen back to the 6 yuan area.
In general, the current pig price is still in a downward trend, and it is clear that the magnitude and scope of today's pig price decline are all wider than yesterday's, and almost the whole country is affected. According to data monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the second week of May, the national average price of pork was 24.42 yuan / kg, down 0.9% from the previous week. That is to say, with the disappearance of the May Day role in boosting market consumption, white strips have slowed down, slaughtering enterprises have rebounded in price reduction, and pig prices have returned to decline.
The production capacity is obviously already degrading, why is the decline in pig prices suddenly increasing? The author believes that there are mainly the following reasons:
First, French pork hit the market. On May 11, the General Administration of Customs issued an announcement allowing the import of French pork that meets the relevant requirements. Not only that, according to the latest customs data, China's pork imports from January to March 2023 totaled 530,000 tons, up 26.19% year-on-year, and pork imports were higher than in the same period.
Second, the clearance of production capacity has not yet ended. The current pig industry is indeed in the stage of capacity reduction, the first quarter is more forced to reduce capacity, after entering the second quarter, some participants in the breeding end have begun to take the initiative to reduce capacity, but because the current breeding end inventory and frozen inventory are at a high level, it is expected that at the end of the second quarter, the impact of capacity on pig prices can be seen.
Third, market consumption is weak. According to data from relevant institutions, the current mainland market consumption has not yet returned to the normal level, for example, the per capita travel cost of May Day this year is 15.5% lower than four years ago, and the three-year mask has really damaged people's consumption capacity.
It is worth mentioning that the current level of pig prices makes people mixed, and it is naturally consumers who think that the current pork price is at a low level and can eat if they want; The worry is naturally for farmers, and long-term losses have made it difficult for some farmers.
In this regard, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a news in early May to study and start the second batch of frozen pork collection and storage work this year, and promote pig prices to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible, in case pig prices are at a low level for a long time, resulting in excessive reduction of pig production capacity, when pork prices will also rise to a high level.
For the next pig price trend, the NDRC believes that as the market supply and demand game is still fierce, short-term pig prices will continue to adjust in a narrow range.