Straight news: On the morning of the 15th local time, in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and many places in the country, military clashes broke out between the paramilitary group "Rapid Support Force" (RSF) and the Sudanese military. What caused the conflict, and what kind of turmoil is the country of Sudan in?
Special Commentator Wu Wei: When it comes to Sudan, you may be relatively unfamiliar with it, but if you look closely at its flag, the red, white and black elements are highly similar to the flag of its northern neighbor Egypt, which largely shows that the two countries have deep roots. Dating back to 2000 BC, Nubia, the predecessor of the Sultan, had a troubled relationship with ancient Egypt, and the Kushi kingdom that originated in Sudan once went north to conquer Egypt and established the 25th Dynasty of Egypt, Pharaoh Pierre was a pyramid lover, so that under his and future generations, Sudan became the country with the largest number of pyramids in the world. For the majority of travelers, in addition to going to Egypt, the first stop you can't miss is Sudan.
The preface is less detailed, and now we see Sudan as the Republic of Sudan established in the 50s of the last century by driving out the British colonialists through the independence movement. Like many countries in Africa, the Sudan is governed by a system of warlords and civil servants in a fragile partnership. The warlords who control the military often determine the "cycle of political rule" of a government, and once the country falls into a state of governance failure, the generals will stage a coup d'état to overthrow the existing regime and take over the ruling authority. A basic feature is that the civil service systems of these African countries are basically intellectual elites who graduated from institutions of higher learning in Britain and the United States, and there are great differences between the warlord system from the homeland in terms of national ideology and basic political line, which brings a serious problem, that is, after the warlord takes over the government for a period of time, in the process of "returning government to the people", the sense of mistrust between the civilian and warlord system runs throughout, a new form of government is always difficult to produce, and political consensus is difficult to translate into political practice.
Referring specifically to the military armed conflict in the Sudan in recent days, it is essentially a chaos in this political process. The two sides to the conflict were originally one family, both from the Sudanese warlord system. Representing the government forces is Burhan, chairman of the Sudanese Sovereign Council and commander-in-chief of the armed forces, who is the current de facto head of state of Sudan; Representing the so-called "rebels" is Dagalo, the vice chairman of Sudan's Sovereign Council, who is the number two figure in the warlord system, and his paramilitary "Rapid Support Force" (RSF) is to some extent his "private soldier". The trigger for the conflict was allegedly Dagallo's resentment of Burhan's proposal to break up the "rapid support force" and integrate it into the government formation. In essence, this is a general showdown between the number one and number two figures in the Sudanese warlord system, because the biggest card in the hands of the warlord is his army itself, and who leads an army often determines the political life of the warlord.
Straight News: So is the nature of this conflict in Sudan a coup d'état, and is there a "shadow of a great power" standing behind this armed conflict?
Special Commentator Wu Wei: The international media have begun to use the title of the coup to describe this military conflict, which does have the characteristics of a military coup to a certain extent. For example, military conflicts revolve around leaders' residences, government agencies, military bases, transportation hubs, radio and television stations, which are premeditated and planned military actions, and the goal is indeed to seize power.
But on the other hand, I also think that it is more like an expansion of a line dispute within the Sudanese warlord system, which is also a "ruling class", a military advice from the second in command to the first. Even if the so-called "rebels" succeed in achieving a series of goals, they still represent the interests of the warlords and do not bring about a fundamental change in the political landscape of Sudan. So I prefer to call it a reshuffle in the Sudanese warlord system, in fact, the Chinese Foreign Ministry's statement this time can explain a certain position, our official use of the title "armed conflict", not hastily called it a coup.
In addition, is there a "shadow of a great power" behind this armed conflict in Sudan? I think it's almost certain to be. As a circumstantial detail, on the eve of the full-scale outbreak of armed conflict, General Dagallo went to the embassies of the United States, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries for talks. But can we conclude that he has become an agent of the US and Western forces? I think it's too early to make a judgment at the moment. In April 2022, Dagallo led a team to Moscow, and as a representative of the Sudanese military junta, Dagallo discussed with Moscow about the construction of a naval base of the Russian Navy in Port Sudan. What caught my attention even more was that Dagallo also negotiated with the Russian mercenary group Wagner. Can we conclude from this that there is a mysterious force from Moscow behind him? Obviously it can't be so hasty either.
Politics is complex, but politics is often commonal, a choice based on human instincts. Especially when the political situation in Sudan is in a new turmoil, both the forces representing the government army and the so-called "rebels" need to seek external support at critical moments when lives and political futures are at stake. This opens the door for external forces to intervene in the situation in the Sudan, internationalizing an internal issue and, at worst, slipping a bottomless slide in the direction of proxy war.
Here, I need to make two reminders. First, the deterioration of the situation in the Sudan carries with it a certain inevitability. It is a reaction to the military coup that overthrew President Bashir in 2019, and the intensification of the long-standing contradiction of the political transition of the warlord system "returning government to the people", and the Sudanese people are dissatisfied with the status quo. Moreover, the deterioration of the situation in the Sudan is somewhat coincidental. It is a dark cloud floating at the dawn of the Middle East peace process, a kind of contagion that the conflict has led to the African continent after the cessation of the civil war in Yemen, and it is very easy to lead Sudan to become a new chessboard in the game of great powers.
Therefore, I believe that all countries should vigorously urge the parties to the conflict in the Sudan to cease fire as soon as possible, avoid the escalation of the situation, and return to the path of political consultation with a sense of mission and responsibility for the people and history.
The author丨 Wu Wei, senior chief writer of Zhi News, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"
Editor丨Yu Zhemin is the editor-in-chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV