Japan's population has fallen below 125 million, shrinking for 12 consecutive years, and the declining birthrate and aging are developing to extremes...

According to Japanese media reports, on April 12, Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications released a report that as of October 1, 2022, the total population of Japan fell below 125 million, declining for 12 consecutive years.

Excluding foreigners living in Japan, the number of Japanese nationals fell by the largest since records began in 1950. Meanwhile, the number of newborns fell below 800,000 for the first time in 124 years and fell below the number of deaths for 16 consecutive years.

The latest data is believed to be another wake-up call to Japan's demographic crisis, reflecting the extreme trend of declining birthrate and aging. Public opinion believes that with the declining birth rate and aging population, Japan will face great economic and security challenges, including a shrinking labor force and an increased financial burden on the medical and social security systems.

While the Kishida administration has made reversing the declining birth rate a top priority and has put in place measures to address it, analysts have questioned its strength and effectiveness, arguing that the demographic crisis should be addressed from socioeconomic roots.

The number of nationals fell at the fastest pace in 73 years

According to statistics released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on the 12th, as of October 1 last year, including foreign residents, Japan's population was 124.947 million, a decrease of 556,000 or 0.44% over the same period last year.

Among them, the number of Japanese nationals fell by 750,000 from the previous year to 122.031 million, a decrease of 0.61%, the largest decline since reference data began in 1950.

In terms of age groups, the labor force population aged 15 to 64 decreased by 296,000 to 74.208 million, accounting for 59.4% of the total population, unchanged from the record low set in the previous year.

The population aged 14 and under dropped to 14.503 million, accounting for 11.6%, a record low;

The elderly population aged 65 and above increased to 36.236 million, accounting for 29%, a record high.

Geographically, with the exception of Tokyo, the number of residents declined in all 46 prefectures.

Okinawa experienced its first population decline since its return to mainland Japan in 1972.

Tokyo took advantage of the capital's advantages to "thrive" with a population growth of 0.20%, rebounding from last year's first decline in 26 years due to the pandemic.

In terms of gender, men accounted for 48.6% of the total population, declining for 15 consecutive years; Women accounted for 51.4%, a decline for 12 consecutive years.

The sex ratio (i.e. the ratio of men to women in the population) is 94.7, with 3,431,000 more women than men.

Japan's total population first fell below the previous year's level in 2005 before peaking in 2008 and has declined for 12 consecutive years since 2011, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported.

According to the Japan Times, the increasing number of foreigners living in Japan in recent years has helped offset the decline in the country's population.

Data show that after the relaxation of border epidemic prevention measures, the foreign population increased by 194,000 to 2.916 million.

Newborns fell below 800,000 for the first time in 124 years

It is worth noting that in the data released on Wednesday, Japan saw the largest decline in the number of newborns, while the number of deaths reached a new high.

The data shows that the number of newborns decreased by 32,000 from the previous year to 799,000, a decrease of 5.1%. This is the first time since records began in 1899 that it fell below 800,000, and the seventh consecutive year that the number of newborns in Japan has continued to decline.

Excluding children born to foreign residents, the estimated number of births is around 770,000.

According to Japanese media reports, the number of newborns in Japan has continued to decline since 1973, when the number of newborns peaked at about 2.09 million. The number of births in Japan had fallen to 1.5 million in 1984 and less than 1 million by 2016.

In 2017, the Japanese government predicted that the number of newborns would fall below 800,000 by 2033, and the latest data show that the rate of declining birthrate in Japan has accelerated significantly, falling below the 800,000 mark a full 11 years earlier.

In contrast, the number of deaths hit a record high of more than 1.58 million, an increase of nearly 130,000 year-on-year. Excluding foreign residents, the number of Japanese national deaths was 1.53 million, an increase of 90,000 year-on-year.

This means that the number of deaths is higher than the number of newborns for 16 consecutive years.

Promote the construction of social systems to solve the double challenge

The latest data report is another wake-up call for Japan's demographic crisis.

In his New Year's speech, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stressed that the birth rate had fallen to the "brink of not being able to maintain the normal functioning of society."

Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Wednesday that compared with other countries with a population of more than 40 million, Japan has the lowest proportion of people under the age of 14 and the highest proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old, showing an extreme trend of declining birthrate and aging.

Japanese media pointed out that the serious decline in the birth rate and the "extreme" trend of aging with a low birthrate will have a huge impact on the country's economy and security. There will be a labour shortfall, economic growth will be hard to count on, and social security systems such as pensions, health care and nursing care services will be unsustainable.

Last month, a study released by the Recruit Works Institute, an independent think tank in Japan, showed that Japan's labor force population is expected to decline rapidly from 2027 and could face a labor shortage of more than 11 million by 2040.

The population issue "is a matter of national prosperity and decline, and the government should take all possible measures to reverse the decline in the birth rate," commented the Yomiuri Shimbun.

Kyodo News pointed out that the trend of population decline shows that Japan urgently needs to establish a social system to cope with the dual challenges of declining birth rate and aging population.

In the face of shrinking population figures, the Japanese government has not done nothing, and Kishida has made reversing the sluggish birth rate a top priority for the government. Since the beginning of this year, it has continuously proposed countermeasures and promised to introduce "unprecedented measures".

In February, Kishida pledged to raise the childcare budget to 4 percent of gross domestic product and 2 percent of GDP for policy spending to support children and families.

On March 31, the Japanese government announced draft policies to encourage childbirth, including the removal of income restrictions on receiving childcare subsidies, the increase of subsidies for families with many children, the increase of childcare leave allowances, and the expansion of the use of childcare services.

On 3 April, the newly established Department for Children and Families was officially launched. The Children's and Family Agency is under the direct administration of the Prime Minister and is one level higher than the traditional Cabinet Office. The government allocated 4.8 trillion yen to the Children's and Family Agency from the FY2023 budget.

On Wednesday, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno stressed at a news conference that addressing the declining birth rate would be the government's top priority, and the government would take relevant measures.

However, in Japan, questions have been raised about the impact and effectiveness of these measures: "Is the government budget invested enough?" Will it affect the strength of the policy? "Fumio Kishida did not set specific targets for the size of the budget"...

The Japanese diplomat website commented that Kishida's strategy to cope with the population decline focuses on government spending. He proposed "smart spending" by reforming social security systems, reviewing ineffective subsidies and integrating growth strategies. But Japan's public debt is twice GDP. To increase much-needed public revenues, consumption taxes will have to be raised in the future, and this will be borne by younger generations. At the same time, Kishida also plans to increase Japan's annual defense spending from 1% to 2% of GDP by 2027. It would also require more fiscal spending and could conflict with its policy vision of encouraging fertility.

Some analysts believe that the government's fiscal response may alleviate the population problem, but the crisis should still be addressed from the root causes, including the need to consider the problem from the perspective of the deep socio-economic structure.

For example, the non-marriage of young people in Japan is considered to be one of the root causes of population decline. The decrease in the number of marriages is positively correlated with the decline in the birth rate. Last year, 519,800 couples got married, a third less than 30 years ago. The young population is decreasing, but the proportion of unmarried people is increasing.

Japanese media pointed out that young people are increasingly pessimistic about the future, which, coupled with the stagnation of the Japanese economy, further exacerbates the demographic crisis.

According to the Yomiuri Shimbun, the key is to address the social factors that contribute to the declining birthrate. Many young people are reluctant to marry or have children due to uncertainty about their future work and life. It will be crucial for the government to create stable jobs and encourage businesses to raise wages.

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Column editor-in-chief: Yang Liqun Text editor: Yang Liqun Title picture source: Xinhua News Agency Photo editor: Su Wei

Source: Author: Liao Qin Feng Rui