Reporter Chen Jialing reported from Beijing
Following the continuous record high of coal prices, the domestic futures market that closed on the afternoon of October 19 was also a large area of red, and the night storm suddenly changed, ushering in a night of horror: the bulls "fled from the wind", nearly 40 contracts fell to a stop, and thermal coal futures were full contract (12) to seal the fall stop board.
The above-mentioned market reaction is mainly affected by the statements of the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments.
On the evening of October 19, the National Development and Reform Commission issued three articles on coal prices in 10 minutes, and the next night, it issued three articles in a row to introduce the investigation of coal supply and price stability. On October 20, the executive meeting of the State Council set the tone of "cracking down on speculation in the coal market according to law", the China Securities Regulatory Commission stated that it would "resolutely curb excessive speculation and put an end to malicious speculation by capital", and the exchange adopted methods such as adjusting margins, handling fees and limiting the number of positions opened for regulation.
A series of regulatory blockbuster "combination punches" followed, and the results were immediate. It is understood that after the regulatory authorities intervened, there were coal mines in Yulin, Shaanxi Province, which cut prices overnight, and traders sent coal to power plants overnight.
According to the data of Oriental Wealth Choice, as of the close of trading on October 20, the funds of Energy and Black varieties "crazy" fled the futures market, and the net outflow of the top ten main contract funds totaled nearly 10 billion yuan.
"Combination Punch" limited price guarantee
Regarding the coal market, the executive meeting of the State Council on October 20 pointed out that every effort should be made to ensure the production and transportation of coal for heating and to crack down on speculation in the coal market according to law.
It can be seen from the latest series of heavy "combination punches" played by the regulatory level that its regulatory ideas are mainly to intervene in coal prices, adjust supply and demand, and crack down on "coal speculators".
It is worth noting that the stable price and supply of bulk commodities is the focus of the year, but the statement of "implementing intervention measures for coal prices according to law" is the first time in the commodity market in the past decade.
"Coal is an important basic energy source, closely related to the national economy and people's livelihood, the current price increase has been completely out of line with the fundamentals of supply and demand, and near the heating season, prices are still showing a further irrational upward trend." The National Development and Reform Commission clearly pointed out in the article on the evening of the 19th that it will make full use of all necessary means stipulated in the Price Law to study specific measures for intervening in coal prices, promote the return of coal prices to a reasonable range, promote the return of the coal market to rationality, ensure the safe and stable supply of energy, and ensure that the people are warm through the winter.
In terms of prices, in addition to proposing that it will intervene in price measures according to law, the National Development and Reform Commission demanded at the symposium on key enterprises of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation on October 19 to ensure supply and price stability, "Central enterprises should play a leading role in ensuring supply and price stability... Strictly implement medium- and long-term contract coal prices, and take the lead in reducing the price of coal traded in the market。 ”
It is understood that the main coal-producing areas and ports are limited price actions. For example, Yulin, Shaanxi, a major coal-producing city, has introduced price limit measures. According to media reports, the fourth quarter coal supply special meeting held in Yulin City required that the market price of coal in the main coal-producing areas of Jinshan and Mongolia be reduced by 100 yuan / ton on the existing basis from the 19th.
It should be pointed out that in the early stage of rapid rise in coal prices, the regulation of futures has repeatedly "punched". Looking at thermal coal futures alone, the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has issued a total of 14 relevant announcements since the end of April 2021, which have been regulated by adjusting the margin, handling fees, and even limiting the number of positions opened.
Since the core logic of the rapid rise in coal prices lies in the relationship between supply and demand, the regulatory authorities have played a fundamental role in adjusting the supply and demand relationship in the coal market. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, "since the end of September, a number of production coal mines have been added, and the average daily output has increased by more than 1.2 million tons compared with September, and the daily output on October 18 has exceeded 11.6 million tons, a new high this year." ”
In terms of increasing spot production and supply, the National Development and Reform Commission released a clearer signal at the above symposium, mainly reflected in "further release of coal production capacity" and "stable increase in coal production". Specifically, the meeting required all coal mines in the fourth quarter to organize production according to full load safety under the premise of ensuring safety; all localities should maintain normal coal mine production during holidays and major events, strictly prohibit the arbitrary shutdown of coal mines, strictly prohibit "one-size-fits-all" regional shutdown of coal mines due to accidents in individual coal mines, ensure that coal mines can produce all under safe conditions, and strive to achieve daily coal output of more than 12 million tons, and increase daily coal production by 3% on October 18.
Cracking down on "coal flippers" has become the focus of regulatory attention. In six articles released by the National Development and Reform Commission on October 19 and 20, during inspections and investigations in Zhengshang, Qinhuangdao and Tangshan cities in Hebei Province, and hebi Park of Henan Coal Storage and Distribution Trading Center, it was repeatedly emphasized: "Strictly investigate and punish capital for malicious speculation of thermal coal futures"; "resolutely curb and manage hoarding and speculation in accordance with laws and regulations"; "severely crack down on price gouging and disrupting the order of the market economy, focusing on cracking down on capital speculation in the coal spot market and public exposure". The CSRC also said that it will resolutely curb excessive speculation and put an end to malicious speculation by capital. At the same time, we will maintain a high-pressure posture of zero tolerance for violations of laws and regulations in the futures market, increase the crackdown on manipulation and other violations of laws and regulations, and maintain good market order.
The "coal flippers" fled overnight
Under the combined fist blow of supervision, the long funds of thermal coal, coking coal, coke and other futures varieties fled in panic.
On the evening of the same day, 4 minutes after the national development and Reform Commission released the first article, the main contract of thermal coal futures began to fall, and in just 9 minutes, it was sealed. The situation of coking coal is similar, although there are repetitions, but it always swims around the stop plate. Coke also plummeted, falling more than 8%.
According to the reporter, as of the end of the night market that night, the main 01 contract of thermal coal futures had more than 10,000 empty hands to seal the stop board, accounting for more than 10% of the contract position. During the day on October 19, the main contract of thermal coal futures once rushed to 1982 yuan / ton, and in the past two months, the contract has risen by more than 160%. Some interviewed futures analysts said bluntly, "Three articles were issued within 10 minutes, and a number of measures were introduced, which triggered the panic of long funds, causing long funds to step on and flee, resulting in a comprehensive decline in thermal coal futures and a huge order seal." ”
On October 20, coal futures continued to stage a downward tide, and affected stocks and funds with related concepts. Coal shares, which had been higher for more than a few days, began to fall sharply in early trading on October 20, and even energy and chemical ETFs (funds), which had doubled their gains during the year, also fell to a halt. As of the afternoon close on October 20, the main contracts of coking coal, coke and thermal coal futures all fell by more than 8%.
"The futures price is dominated by news and sentiment, and the possibility of an inertial decline is not ruled out." Ran Yumeng, a black analyst at Shenwan Futures, said in an interview with this reporter: "At present, the policy of regulating the release of risks, under the policy of restricting coal prices, market sentiment has been greatly affected, and bullish sentiment has cooled down significantly. In terms of futures, all contracts of thermal coal in the night of the 19th were sealed off, and the bullish fear of heights spread and took profits to leave the market. After the close of the market on the 20th, the main contract was reduced by 3718 lots on the 2201st, and the precipitated capital outflow was 757 million yuan, accounting for about 9%. ”
According to the data of Oriental Wealth Choice, as of the close of trading on October 20, the funds of Energy and Black varieties "crazy" fled the futures market, and the net outflow of the top ten main contract funds totaled nearly 10 billion yuan. Among them, the net outflow of coke, coking coal and thermal coal was 2.330 billion yuan, 1.251 billion yuan and 757 million yuan, respectively.
Sensitive money in the market tends to act early. "China Business Daily" reporter noted that on the afternoon of October 19, the news about the highest sales price of coal restricted by the place of origin and port was spread in the market, thermal coal futures heard the news "diving", the disk 05 contract opened the up and down board, from the highest 1388 yuan / ton down 41 points to close; the 01 contract also closed a long upper shadow line; as of the afternoon close, the disk funds outflow of 669 million yuan.
Some institutions and investors have long expected. Zeng Ning, deputy general manager of the research department of CITIC Futures, pointed out in the research report that after October 13, in addition to the core three carbon varieties - thermal coal, coking coal, coke continue to rise, other varieties related to coal or high energy consumption such as coal chemicals, PVC, alloys, steel, etc. have continued to decline, in fact, from the capital level, reflecting the signal that the coal supply and demand pattern will ease - similar to the real estate market, the decline in house prices always starts from the edge of the suburbs or the old and broken these "edge assets". Finally, the core assets of the urban area, related coal chemicals and high-energy-consuming varieties can be used as "marginal assets", and coal as a core asset finally fell. Overall, as terminal demand tends to weaken, and there is a lack of further marginal reductions on the supply side after the easing of coal supply and demand, related commodities are at risk of continued correction.
In addition to the "carbon reduction" in the futures market, the spot market traders have also had the action of "shipping" overnight. According to media reports, as soon as the news from the National Development and Reform Commission came out on the evening of the 19th, Some Shandong traders sent coal to the power plant overnight. Traders who buy coal from coal companies hoard it in coal yards, and reversing from coal yards to power plants requires reversing trucks, and the freight of reversing trucks that night has increased by 8 times overnight.
In the next 3 to 5 years, coal prices will be more than 1,000 yuan
The sharp rise in energy prices and the rise in inflation have been the focus of attention in recent times.
Wei Ying, a senior researcher at Industrial Futures, believes that since the third quarter, the price increase driven by the contraction of commodity supply has gradually spread from the ferrous metal industry to almost all bulk industrial products, and the hidden logic behind it is the "energy crisis", which is manifested as a shortage of coal (electricity) in China and a natural gas crisis in Europe.
Futures interviewees believe that the supply and demand situation in the coal market will gradually improve. However, after the release of market sentiment, if the macro and mesoscopic fundamentals of commodities do not materially improve, it will be difficult for commodity prices to trend down. There are also futures companies that suggest that there are local opportunities for commodities after October, and the overall risk is greater than the opportunity, and the risk of systematic correction of bulk commodities should be guarded against in the fourth quarter.
It is pointed out that it may take some time for regulatory measures to take effect, and the decline in coal prices still needs to be substantially changed in the relationship between supply and demand, such as the bottoming out and accumulation of inventory data.
According to CITIC Futures Research Report, in the medium term, due to the gap caused by the tight supply and demand of up to 10 months, the gap is as high as 150 million tons, and the social inventory of thermal coal has dropped to less than 100 million tons, so it will take time for the contradiction between supply and demand to be completely alleviated, especially in the context of the continuous fermentation of cold winter, winter heating demand is still strong, and ensuring supply is still a difficult task. In the short term, thermal coal is expected to undergo a rapid process of squeezing foam, but after squeezing the bubble, it is expected that thermal coal will show a high-level oscillation trend under the dual influence of supply and production increase and absolutely low inventory.
The team of Meng Xiangwen, head of the coal and steel field of Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute, recently predicted in the research report that the short-term slight correction of coal prices in the spring of 2022, but in the next 3 to 5 years, domestic coal prices will continue to remain above 1000 yuan / ton, or even maintained at about 1500 yuan / ton. Considering that the NDRC will adjust the profit distribution of coal and electricity state-owned enterprises, on the one hand, it is recommended to pay attention to coal targets with a low proportion of long-term cooperation, and on the other hand, it is recommended to pay attention to coal targets with new production capacity and asset injection expectations.