Will Guoan have a better chance of winning the championship this year than in 2019?

In the eyes of many people, the purpose of Guoan's large-scale recruitment this year is to win the championship. In fact, according to reliable sources, Guoan internally determined the goal of competing for the championship as early as the beginning of the year, and Li Ming conveyed the management's demand at the meeting announcing the completion of his contract extension, that is, the goal is to compete for the championship.

Although the slogan of the championship has not been made public, many Guoan players have also expressed their thoughts in this regard in interviews, believing that Guoan must at least return to the AFC Champions League. To put it bluntly, it's the top three in the league.

In addition, many people believe that the chance of Guoan winning the championship this year will be greater than in 2019, on the grounds that Guoan has returned to the work body, with the bonus of a new home stadium, and direct competitors such as SIPG and Luneng are more or less related to the anti-corruption and anti-counterfeiting incident of the Football Association.

But is that really the case?

I am afraid that this is another blind optimistic judgment of many people.

First of all, from the perspective of the overall environment, SIPG and Luneng did fall into the anti-corruption and anti-counterfeiting incident, but they did not have any impact on them. Although the chairman of the football association, Chen Jiayuan, fell from the horse, he had already left SIPG. Although it is not ruled out that he may have brought some convenience to SIPG when he served in the Football Association, objectively speaking, SIPG's strength itself is not weak, even if there is no so-called "plug-in" of the "president of the Football Association", SIPG's strength is at least not lost to national security.

Luneng may be less affected. In the process of fighting corruption and counterfeiting, only Jin Jingdao was really involved in the case, and although Wu Xinghan and others were taken away for investigation, they also returned soon. Although it may have an impact on its status, Luneng has brought in a lot this summer, enough to fill the gap between these two people.

What's more, sometimes, often when the team is in a negative situation, the team is more capable of fighting and cohesion. For example, Italy's two World Cup victories in 82 and 06 were in the context of scandals in the domestic league. Negative events are a double-edged sword that can destroy a team or bring a team closer together.

Secondly, in addition to the two direct rivals of SIPG and Luneng , last season's defending champion Wuhan Three Towns has not decreased but increased, which can be seen from the Super Cup match.

In terms of personnel, Wuhan Three Towns retained almost all of the main players who won last season's title, and the only departure was top scorer Malcom, but this position was also replaced by a black foreign signing from the Portuguese Premier League, and the new signing also scored in the Super Cup, showing the efficiency and ability to not lose to Malcom.

On this basis, the three towns in Wuhan also introduced Wei Shihao and Yan Dinghao. The role and status of these two in the previous club Guangzhou team are more important than Yang Liyu introduced by Guoan, and the position of the two of them in the national team is much more stable than Yang Liyu.

Counting Wei Shihao and Yan Dinghao, there are already many former Guangzhou Evergrande players in the Wuhan Three Towns team, Liu Dianzuo, Gao Junyi, Liu Yiming, He Chao, Deng Hanwen and others, and their run-in with each other is not a big problem.

Third, in addition to the above three direct competitors, the strength of the Chinese Super League teams is approaching. In other words, this year's Super League could be a difficult year to play.

Compared with the 10-game winning streak at the beginning of 2019, Guoan basically held the handle against the weak team at that time. Now, after two years of turmoil, the gap between the strength and weakness of the Chinese Super League teams has become significantly smaller.

On the one hand, the so-called strong teams are not supported by sky-high foreign aid. On the other hand, several disbanded or poorly run teams are widely dispersed to other teams, allowing other teams to rise in the ranks.

For example, Guangzhou Evergrande's players in addition to the Wuhan Three Towns team, in Guoan and Henan Jianye, Shanghai Shenhua, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other teams, Guangzhou R&F several powerful players are also the same, Li Titian went to Zhejiang, Tang Miao went to Chengdu. Several powerful players in the Wuhan Yangtze River team also scattered, Liu Yun went to Changchun Yatai, and tomorrow to Tianjin Jinmen Tigers.

Speaking of Tianjin Jinmen Tigers, you can also give you an example, you can know how the current lineup of the Chinese Super League weak team in this memory is. On the back line, in addition to Yang Fan and Yu Yang of Guoan, there are Han Pengfei, who once played for Evergrande and Guizhou, and Wuhan's tomorrow. In midfield are Guo Hao and Wang Qiuming, who were once selected for the national team, plus Barton in the forward line. These players are combined with foreign support, at least the team's starting lineup has considerable strength on paper.

Compared with last year, the Chinese Super League no longer has any real weak teams, such as Guangzhou, Guangzhou City, Hebei and other sending teams no longer exist, every Chinese Super League game may be a hard bone.

Fourth, after talking about the opponent, let's talk about national security in reverse. Guoan's own situation is no better than in 2019.

First, the team faced run-in problems after large-scale signings. In the introduction of national security, six players, Engadejiu, Adami, Sousa, Yang Liyu, Han Jiaqi, and Li Lei are the most likely players to serve as the main force or the main rotation, except for Li Lei, who returned to national security, others are unfamiliar to national security. This also means that at least five positions in the team's 11-man starting lineup need to be adjusted. Already half of the team's main squad.

This is completely different from 2019. The 2019 Guoan was upgraded from the 2018 FA Cup winner. The team brought in two main players, Jin Minya and Wang Gang, to make up for the weaknesses of central defender and right back. The dual core of Vieira + Augusto was established a year ago, and center Bakambu has also proved his ability, and Jang Xizhe, Park Sung and Ji Zhongguk can also form chemistry with the double core in midfield. At that time, the national security did not need to adapt to a completely new style of play as it does now.

Second, national security weaknesses still exist and become clearer. The partnership of central defender Ngardehisa is definitely the team's fatal injury, and both Yu Datuo and Bai Daji have been the team's biggest weakness for several years. At the same time, on the offensive line, Guoan also lacks in the center position. It's not that Zhang Yuning and Wang Ziming are bad, but no matter how good they are, they are just a local striker, and their sense of pressure and impact on the opponent is incomparable to foreign strikers, and the output of natural offensive battles is also unstable.

In 2019, Guoan's lineup did not have particularly obvious shortcomings, although Yu Dabao began to make mistakes at that time, but Wang Gang, Li Lei and Jin Minya were all playing at that time, and they could fill the hole dug by Yu Dabao, and the team's central defense reserve was enough, at least Yu Yang was still on top of the team at any time. On the forward line, although Bakambu is limited by foreign assistance quotas, as long as he plays, the goal rate is still guaranteed, and the tactical role is extremely important.

Thirdly, the overall age of Guoan is still on the older side, especially the three new foreign signings, all of whom are veterans over 33 years old, Ademi and Sousa have injury risks, and it is a big question whether they can produce steadily in the long league. Compared with 2019, most of Guoan's local players are in the golden age between 28 and 30 years old, and the age of several foreign aides is also the same.

Therefore, whether it is the external environment or internal conditions, the chance of national security winning the championship is not greater than in 2019. But as a capital team, it is also necessary to win the league or return to the AFC Champions League, which requires the team to face up to this year's league and face up to its own problems, especially for many emergencies to have enough plans to achieve relatively good results in the end.