Data analysis is bad, only positive emotions are not bright, how will Westhorst's Manchester United road go?

This article was compiled from: theathletic

Written by Laurie Whitwell

原标题：The Weghorst diagnosis according to his numbers – it’s not good news

No one could have predicted that Westhorst would start 19 times in a row in his first 80 days as a Manchester United player, not even Westhorst himself. Westhorst signed with Manchester United on 13 January and had only one full training session with his new team-mates before entering the starting line-up against Crystal Palace. He has remained in the starting lineup ever since.

He could play 20 games in a row. Anthony Martial has finally recovered from his injury but will need to slowly return to his best form after a two-month absence. At St James's Park last Sunday, Ten Hag brought on the Frenchman's substitute Westhorst with 28 minutes remaining. TMartial has not been offered a start since the Manchester City derby on 14 January, the day after Westhorst signed.

So Westhorst may remain in the starting XI for tonight's game against Brentford, despite his worst performance against Newcastle. He had 10 touches, four of his five passes (the only single player in United's starting XI to be in single digits on that statistic) and squandered a good shot created by Anthony to hit the ball straight into the side-netting.

Anthony Martial had 16 touches and 10 passes in just half the time.

Brentford was the trigger for Manchester United's decision to drop Cristiano Ronaldo. Manchester United initially wanted to keep Cristiano Ronaldo, but in a 4-0 defeat to the Bees in West London last August, Ronaldo's running undermined Ten Hag's tactics and affected the reluctance of others to improve the intensity of the game. In the end, the Manchester United manager decided to drop Cristiano Ronaldo.

On Sky Sports' Monday night football show, Gary Neville compared Verhorst's 19 starts at Manchester United with Cristiano Ronaldo's last 19 starts at United. Westhorst is above Cristiano Ronaldo, with 12 wins, four draws and three defeats for Manchester United, with a total of 37 goals. In Ronaldo's last 19 starts, Manchester United had a record of 9 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats, scoring a total of 23 goals. But there is a clear gap between the two in individual goals: Westhorst scored two, while Cristiano Ronaldo scored 11.

This key metric has sparked a re-examination of Westhorst, with Neville admitting: "A lot of people have asked the question: 'This experiment has to stop, Westhorst has to leave Manchester United, this can't go on any longer. ’”

Asked about it, Ten Hag said: "I also saw Gary Neville's comments. When he looks back at Westhorst's performance, he means that what we've done has been very successful. I'm happy with Westhorst because he's doing well in the team. ”

An in-depth study of these less obvious statistics will again confirm Ten Hag's point. As the table below shows, Westhorst ranks high in the number of pressures per 90 minutes of players playing at least 500 minutes in the Premier League. Opta defines "pressure" as "the movement of a player without the ball to force the opposing player's defensive action." This pressure may be applied to the ball handler or potential receiver. ”

In the statistics of every 90 minutes of pressure leading to mistakes, Westhorst ranked third and Cristiano Ronaldo ranked fourth. Ronaldo is very effective in attack, the difference is that Westhorst is more willing and a lot to do these pressure jobs.

It is worth noting that Isaac is at the top of this data table. His pressing was fierce and he pressed Varane to concede the ball in Sunday's game and eventually opened the scoring for Newcastle for Willock. Newcastle signed Isaac from Real Sociedad for £60 million ($75m) last summer and United could be even worse off if all of this is taken together. The 23-year-old has suffered from injuries but has scored six goals in 11 Premier League appearances this season.

Instead, Ten Hag spent a lot of money on Casemiro, Anthony and Lisandro Martinez, who had to try a loan loan in January due to the deteriorating finances of the Glazer family.

Ten Hag took the initiative to contact Westhorst. Some at Burnley are skeptical that the 30-year-old will be up to the standard of playing for Manchester United, but his performances have now met Ten Hag's expectations, although he has yet to score in the Premier League this season.

His only two goals came against Nottingham Forest in the Carabao Cup and Real Betis in the Europa League, both of which were added goals.

In Wembley's Carabao Cup final against Newcastle, Westhorst assisted Marcus Rashford's goal with a beautiful pass; In the 3-0 win over Leicester City, the Dutchman's aggressive running created shooting space for Sancho.

Westhorst also missed some opportunities. Against Betis, he received a pass from Anthony and shot straight at range. Against Southampton, he did not anticipate Luke Shaw's cross, which resulted in the ball hitting his head and being easily picked up by Bazunu. At Camp Nou and Villamarin, his shots were too right and went straight to the goalkeeper.

According to Opta's definition, Verhorst has only missed a "big chance" in the Premier League – in the 88th minute against Leicester City, he squandered a one-on-one chance with the opposing goalkeeper after receiving a pass from Jadon Sancho. In the same period, Haaland missed 8 "good chances", the most in the Premier League, but it also proved that he can be in such a great position in the first place to miss so many "good opportunities".

Of the 89 forwards who have played at least 270 minutes this season, Westhorst ranks low in several indicators. In terms of expected goals per 90 minutes (xG), he is 67th with 0.19. This shows that he has not created as many quality opportunities for himself as other team's main strikers. Haaland leads the way in this ranking with 0.86.

In terms of shots per 90 minutes, Westhorst ranked 77th with 1.45. Liverpool's Darwin Núñez tops the list with 4.98 times. In terms of shot statistics, Verhorst ranked 83rd with 0.43, while Darwin Núñez remained the highest with 2.16.

In the statistics of touches in the opponent's penalty area every 90 minutes, Westhorst ranked 83rd with 2.75. Arsenal's Jesus is the highest in this statistic, reaching a staggering 10.54 times.

In terms of passes per 90 minutes, Westhorst ranked 81st with 7.39. Manchester City's Riyaz Mahrez tops the list with 24.28 times and Haaland is 85th with 6.67 times.

There are other measures that are clearly friendlier to Westhorst. Verhorst ranked 19th with 0.87 in the statistics of offensive three zones won per 90 minutes, and 29th with 1.74 wins in aerial confrontations per 90 minutes.

In addition, Westhorst scored highly on some qualities that cannot be measured with data. He focuses on his work and conveys positive emotions to others. At the same time, he completely obeyed Ten Hag's orders. In their second game against Gibraltar during the recent international break, the Netherlands played the full 90 minutes without scoring a goal. When a journalist suggested he could not score even after 48 hours with Gibraltar, he responded politely.

His insistence on the job is why the Old Trafford crowd paid tribute to his late goal against Betis.

Westhorst's move to Ten Hag is a good thing, and Ten Hag is open to keeping him on after his loan spell expires. However, if he wants to stay on the team next season, as a substitute who can be used, and start in certain games, he needs to be seen at the top of the statistics in the previous four paragraphs, rather than as he found himself.