Renewed conflict in the Middle East!
According to CCTV news, on the afternoon of April 6, local time, armed groups in Lebanon fired a number of rockets into the north of Israel. So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.
The Lebanese State News Agency reported that the Israel Defense Forces fired multiple heavy artillery pieces into neighboring southern Lebanon on the same day.
Subsequently, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement saying that after preliminary investigation, armed groups in Lebanon fired a total of 34 rockets into Israel that day, of which 25 were intercepted by Israeli air defense systems, 5 fell into Israel, and the other 4 were difficult to verify.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said a government security meeting would be held later in the day over the incident. Israeli border guards have responded by firing more than 10 heavy artillery pieces into Lebanon.
Reuters said three security sources said the attack was on Palestinian factions from Lebanon, not the heavily armed Lebanese Allah party group. Israel broadcaster showed that a large amount of smoke rose over the northern town of Shlomi, and public sector broadcaster Kan said the Israeli Airports Authority closed its northern airspace, including over Haifa, to civilian flights.
On the evening of the 6th local time, armed groups in Lebanon fired three mortars into the area near the northeastern Israeli town of Metulla.
On the night of April 6, local time, Prime Minister Najib Mikati, the Prime Minister of the Lebanese caretaker government, issued a statement saying that Lebanon condemned the firing of rockets from its southern territory. Mikati stated that Lebanon categorically rejects any military escalation from its territory and any use of its territory to carry out destabilizing operations.
The Commander of UNIFIL, Aroldo Lassaro Sáenz, is in constant communication with both Lebanon and Israel. UNIFIL stated that the current situation was extremely grave and that UNIFIL called on all parties to exercise restraint in order to avoid escalation.
In the early morning of April 7, local time, the Israel Defense Forces said that the Israeli army launched air strikes on the Gaza Strip. At the same time, air defense sirens were sounded in several Israeli towns close to the Gaza Strip. The Israeli army issued a statement after the air strike, saying that the Israeli air force had bombed two arms processing plants in northern and central Gaza, as well as two underground transport tunnels. The statement pointed out that the air strikes were a response to the recent Hamas attack on Israel.
Putin blamed Kiev for killing its own soldiers in a very brutal way
According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, Russian President Putin said on the 6th local time that the Kiev regime killed its own soldiers yesterday (5th), and its behavior was extremely selfish and cruel.
According to the report, Putin met with the acting leader of Donetsk on the 6th, Denis Denis? At the meeting of Pushilin, it was said that last night 14 Ukrainian servicemen were surrounded near the front line and surrendered. But instead of going to rescue the men, Ukrainian forces fired about 300 shells at the area, killing all servicemen in the area. Putin also said, "Unfortunately, our people have also suffered, but they do not spare even their own people." Their actions are extremely selfish and cruel".
Regarding the Russian side's condemnation of Ukraine's killing of prisoners of war, this is not the first time. According to a previous report by RIA Novosti, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a statement on November 18 last year saying that there was a video showing Ukrainian soldiers deliberately shooting and killing more than 10 Russian prisoners of war, and Ukrainian President Zelensky and his supporters must be judged by history. In this regard, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova issued a statement on the same day, asking international organizations to condemn this "heinous crime" of the Ukrainian side and conduct a thorough investigation. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council Dmitry Medvedev also said on the same day that Ukrainian soldiers who shot Russian prisoners of war should be punished. Subsequently, the incident gradually fermented, and the mutual criticism between Russia and Ukraine continued. According to an Associated Press report on November 20 last year, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Stephanie Hina responded: "Ukraine will investigate the so-called video of shooting prisoners of war." Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said on November 21 last year that Russia will search for and shoot Ukrainian personnel who captured the Russian army.
Fundamentals dragged down the colored sector, and Shanghai tin tumbled
Under the pressure of macro, the market's concerns about demand have revived, most of the non-ferrous metal varieties yesterday are green, showing a general downward trend, among which, the main contracts of Shanghai tin and Shanghai nickel fell by 5% and 2.79% respectively, and the main contracts of Shanghai copper, Shanghai aluminum and Shanghai zinc closed down 0.94%, 0.69% and 1.75% respectively. The main Shanghai lead contract became the only non-ferrous sector to close higher with a 0.14% increase.
"Recently released overseas economic data are generally poor, for example, the US PMI manufacturing index continued to hit a new low in March, ADP new jobs in March were significantly lower than expected, and the probability of a US recession increased in market trading, which weighed on the overall metals market." Liu Peiyang, a nonferrous metals analyst at Zhongyuan Futures, said.
In the view of Qu Yajuan of Changkai Economic and Trade OTC Derivatives Department, the collective weakening of the nonferrous sector is also a reflection of the more cautious market sentiment after the overseas banking crisis.
In addition, Qu Yajuan said that yesterday's nonferrous decline was also a correction to the upward rebound at the end of March, and there was no substantial change in the pattern of weak demand in the fundamentals. "The factors suppressing non-ferrous prices mainly come from the fundamental level, such as copper, zinc and nickel, and supply growth is relatively certain, while demand, despite marginal improvement, has limited increments, and tin is also under pressure from high inventories; Of course, the repetition of recessionary logic at the macro level and concerns about the increasing frequency of systemic risks have also played a role. Qu Yajuan said.
Especially for Huxi, which led the decline, Liu Peiyang said that the recent domestic tin destocking was less than expected, the inventory level was still at a relatively high level, the downstream electronic demand was still weak, lack of bright performance, and basically faced the drag of tin prices.
It is worth noting that LME copper stocks continue to decline, which may bring corresponding support to copper prices. "On the one hand, the global supply side has tightened in the short term, with data from satellite monitoring agencies showing a decline in global copper smelting activity in March. Chilean copper production fell 3.4 percent in February from a year earlier, according to the Chilean Copper Commission. On the other hand, there may be a shift in copper in stocks, with copper stocks in the COMEX market jumping 24.4% in the past half month. However, if the total global copper inventory continues to decline, it will form a significant support for copper prices. Liu Peiyang said.
"In fact, since March, LME copper stocks have basically hovered at a low level, and a small amount of outbound will cause greater changes. LME copper stocks are mainly distributed in Europe and Asia, the volume of Asia is growing compared with the beginning of the year, Europe's inventory and registered warehouse receipts are falling rapidly, overseas smelting capacity is relatively stable, after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's refined copper is difficult to enter Europe to replenish, but also caused the current situation of low inventory. Qu Yajuan said that the low level of LME copper inventory will have some support for the price, as of April 6, the proportion of warehouse receipts written off is 44.75%, which is slightly high, but the LME0-3 spot is basically near Pingshui, and the risk of running out is not high.
For the future market of non-ferrous metals, Qu Yajuan believes that in the short term, the non-ferrous metal sector may be oscillating, there is pressure above, but there is still support below, most varieties of inventories are generally low, if the price falls, it will stimulate the short-term recovery of demand, and the US dollar index is weak overall.
Bank of America Securities believes that the re-acceleration of China's economy will push the price of aluminum and copper prices until the end of the year. In this regard, Qu Yajuan said that the recovery of China's economy is only one of the factors on the demand side of copper and aluminum prices, March is the small peak season for the recovery of domestic manufacturing after the year, which is expected to be higher, but the actual demand is not very ideal. The industry is seriously involved, small and medium-sized enterprises are in a difficult situation, and once the price rises sharply, the suppression of downstream demand will appear. In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to the supply side and macro disturbances, the profit of non-ferrous metal midstream smelting in the first quarter is acceptable, the supply is increased, and some copper smelters have been overhauled in the second quarter, but under the profit stimulation and new production capacity, the impact may be limited, and after entering the flood period, electrolytic aluminum production is expected to also grow. At the macro level, although it is at the end of tightening policy, systemic risks cannot be ignored in the context of high interest rates.
"At present, the domestic economy is in the recovery stage, the policy side is relatively stable, the latest PMI data shows that the growth rate in March has slowed down compared to February, so the support for the non-ferrous metals market is also relatively stable." It should be noted that a major feature of the macro market this year is the recession expectation of the US economy, which will put some pressure on non-ferrous metals. Therefore, once after the second quarter, the US recession is less than expected, the bearish may become positive, coupled with the overall preference of the domestic market, non-ferrous metals may have better performance. Liu Peiyang said.
Expectations of Fed policy easing have heated up, and precious metals continue to rise strongly
Expectations of a pause in interest rate hikes and rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have risen significantly due to weak economic data from the United States, boosting gold prices while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are falling. Yesterday, the COMEX gold futures price was blocked after breaking through the all-time high of $2,035/oz and fell to $2,024/oz to stabilize, and the international gold price has risen nearly 2.4% so far this week. In the domestic market, the main contract of Shanghai gold closed up 1.53% yesterday, and the Shanghai Bank performed even stronger, rising nearly 4%, hitting new highs in more than two and a half years and one and a half years respectively.
In the A-share market, the precious metals sector is also very strong. Yesterday, the precious metals index soared, rising nearly 5% intraday, and a number of gold concept stocks were the top gainers. By the close, the precious metals sector was up 3.1%, with Shandong Gold, Hunan Gold and China Gold leading the gains.
Shi Jialiang, a macro analyst at Founder Medium-term Futures Research Institute, said that the US small non-farm ADP data, the number of job openings and the number of initial jobless claims are weak, the US labor market shows signs of weakness, the signs of economic weakness are becoming more and more obvious, coupled with the previously released March manufacturing PMI data weakening across the board, the US recession is inevitable, recession trading logic is rising again, the Fed's policy bias towards easing expectations continues to heat up, the dollar index and US bond yields are weak, and precious metals are rising strongly.
"The weaker-than-expected U.S. small non-farm payrolls data suggests there may be signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market. In a high interest rate environment, there is pressure on the US economy to slow down. However, the transmission of tight money to tight credit has a certain lag, so most of the previous US economic data exceeded expectations. However, from the perspective of the growth rate of commercial bank loans, the year-on-year growth rate has begun to slow down, and the US economy is likely to enter a recession trajectory, but the actual time of recession may be remote, possibly in late 2023 or 2024. Jinrui Futures precious metals analyst Gong Ming said.
Under the influence of the banking crisis in the United States and Europe, the Fed's monetary policy adjustment rhythm is expected to change rapidly to easing, and the US job market has shown obvious signs of weakness, coupled with the high interest rate environment and high inflation, the US recession is inevitable, and the macro environment is favorable for precious metals. In Shi Jialiang's view, the safe-haven demand pre-policy has turned loose, coupled with the US dollar index and US bond yields continue to decline, precious metal prices continue to rise, and there is still room for growth. In the future, we need to pay attention to whether macro factors such as policy easing turn, economic downside risks and systemic risks can help precious metals refresh record highs, and adjusting low-absorption opportunities is still the focus.
"The better-than-expected performance of the US economic data in January may be short-lived, there is no continuity, the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy has cooled again, and recession expectations have heated up; The impact of high policy rates will continue to be felt, along with concerns about US banking risks, a US recession may be inevitable, and the Fed's monetary policy tightening is nearing its end. Based on the signal released by the Fed's March interest rate meeting and the systemic problems in the US and European banking systems, the implied interest rate of US federal funds futures extrapolates the probability of interest rate hikes, because inflation is still high and resilient, bank risks have not further deteriorated, and the Fed will not cut interest rates immediately; The Fed's expectation of a 25BP rate hike in May is dependent but less certain, and it will cut interest rates about twice in the second half of the year depending on the degree of economic and inflation decline and the evolution of risks in the banking system. Shi Jialiang introduced.
The pace of the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to change rapidly in a short period of time, and it may quickly shift from policy tightening to policy easing within the year, and the macro logic has changed in a trend, which directly has a positive impact on precious metals. However, Shi Jialiang said that the adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy has been priced in by the market, and it is easier to form a positive and multi-profit effect for the time being before further turning to easing or increasing the degree of dovish; Once the Fed's monetary policy adjustment expectations turn hawkish again or will not appear dovish as the market expects, it will have a direct bearish impact on precious metals, so it is also possible for precious metals to usher in a short-term correction. However, the logic of the Fed's monetary easing has become the main logic, and in this context, superimposed on the demand for safe-haven, allocation and reserves, precious metals still have room for growth in the medium and long term.
"The support of precious metals at a historically high price is first, the safe-haven value under the previous banking crisis and liquidity crisis, second, the tightening of overseas liquidity, the market generally expects interest rate cuts to be higher under the risk crisis, and third, geopolitical conflicts are still key risks, the Russia-Ukraine incident has not subsided, and there are hidden worries about Guam and Taiwan Strait." Gong Ming said that under the current node, precious metals are likely to enter the beginning stage of a new cycle, the impact of the overseas high interest rate environment on the economy is steadily emerging, inflation may return, and overseas recession is highly certain. In this context, precious metals are likely to usher in a cross-year level of more markets. In addition, the dollar hegemony system in the current node also appeared cracks, Brazil, Iraq, India and other countries began to use RMB settlement in some energy transactions, as the pace of RMB internationalization continues to move forward, the US dollar's global currency status may weaken, gold's monetary attributes will also provide strong support.
The US non-farm payrolls data for March will be released at 20:30 this evening to become the focus of the market, Shi Jialiang said, the market expects that the US non-farm payrolls in March will fall from 311,000 to 240,000, the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.6%, need to focus on the difference in expectations; from the number of job openings in February, the US non-farm payrolls data is less likely to perform than expected, but does not rule out the possibility of performance exceeding expectations.
This article is from Futures Daily
![The Israeli air defense system was completely penetrated, and the Lebanese armed forces destroyed the "Iron Dome" system[fig]](data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAP///wAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=)