Reconciliation and confrontation are intertwined Opportunities and challenges coexist
"A New Middle East is Forming" (Global Hotspot)
Zhang Hong, reporter of this newspaper
Recently, with the historic handshake and peace between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the "old enemy" mediated by China, a "wave of reconciliation" has been set off in the Middle East. Whether between Arab countries or between Iran, Turkey and Arab countries, high-level visits have entered a period of frequent times, relations between countries have improved significantly, and a multipolar Middle East is emerging.
"Middle East ushers in reconciliation season"
"The Middle East ushered in the season of reconciliation", according to the UAE's Gulf Times, there have been many encouraging reconciliations in the Middle East recently. After Saudi Arabia and Iran signed a joint statement in Beijing on March 10 agreeing to restore diplomatic relations, good news continued to come from the reconciliation between the two countries - a number of Iranian media reported on March 19 that the Iranian presidential office said that the Saudi Shah invited Iranian President Raisi to pay an official visit to Saudi Arabia, and Raisi welcomed the invitation. Moreover, Foreign Minister Shah agreed to hold bilateral meetings during Ramadan to speed up the process of resuming diplomatic work between the two countries, Saudi State News Agency reported on March 27.
The warming of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has led to a thaw in relations between Iran and other Arab countries. On March 16, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Sharm Khani held talks with UAE President Mohammed Mohammed in Abu Dhabi, according to Agence France-Presse and other media reports. The sources said that Iran and Bahrain are engaged in important bilateral negotiations on the restoration of relations between the two countries without third-party mediation, and positive results will be announced soon.
Relations between Syria and other Arab countries also continue to warm. Saudi engagement with Syria has gained momentum after Saudi Arabia reached a landmark agreement with Iran, Reuters reported on March 23. Both governments are preparing to reopen their embassies after Eid al-Fitr, a Muslim holiday in late April. On March 19, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad arrived in Abu Dhabi for "constructive" talks with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. According to the Associated Press, the Arab League is likely to reinstate Syria's membership this year.
In addition, Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu met with Egyptian Foreign Minister Shokeri in Cairo, Egypt's capital, on March 18, marking the first time Turkey sent a ministerial-level official to Egypt in more than 10 years. Moreover, with the easing of the regional situation, regional hotspot issues such as Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Palestinian-Israeli issues have also ushered in opportunities for peace.
However, discord remains. On the evening of March 23, the U.S. military claimed to have been hit by drones on bases in Syria, and on the evening of March 23, it launched retaliatory air strikes against organizations "associated with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps," triggering another round of-for-tat strikes between the two sides, which increased tensions in eastern Syria. Asked about the news of the Saudi-Syrian reconciliation, a State Department spokesman said the United States has "not changed its position on normalizing relations" with Middle Eastern countries and said it would not encourage other countries to normalize relations with the Bashar regime. Earlier, the US State Department expressed "deep disappointment and unease" at the UAE's warm reception of Bashar, stressing that the United States "will not lift sanctions against Syria."
Major changes in the strategic landscape of the Middle East
The analysis generally pointed out that Saudi Arabia's historic handshake and remarks set off a new round of "reconciliation wave" in the Middle East, and its spread was much faster than expected. The US magazine "Foreign Affairs" also pointed out that the Shay-Beijing agreement is a landmark and may reshape major power relations in the Middle East. Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger pointed out that China's facilitation of the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi and Iraq is a major change in the strategic pattern of the Middle East. The U.S. Foreign Affairs website believes that the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran could reshape the region and create a new order. Israel's Jerusalem Post frankly said that under China's mediation, the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran marks the formation of a new Middle East.
"The 'reconciliation wave' in the Middle East is the result of a combination of internal and external factors. Since 2020, in addition to the fact that relations between Israel and Iran are still in a state of fierce confrontation, there has been a trend of dialogue and détente between the four major forces in the Arab world, Israel, Iran and Turkey, as well as within the Arab world. Sun Degang, a researcher at the Middle East Research Center of Fudan University, pointed out in an interview with this newspaper, "From the perspective of internal factors, sectarian conflicts in the Islamic world in the Middle East have consumed the hard and soft power of various countries, and as a result, all parties have not only not obtained security, but have become more insecure, and seeking peace and development have become the common aspirations of most countries in the Middle East." The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is a wake-up call to Middle Eastern countries that resorting to war and force will only lead to Middle Eastern countries becoming pawns and victims of great power competition. From the perspective of their own national interests, countries in the Middle East must adhere to strategic autonomy, seek common ground while reserving differences, stop the bleeding in a timely manner, promote security through cooperation, and promote peace with development. From the perspective of external factors, European and American powers have withdrawn from the Middle East and reduced their willingness to fight a 'proxy war' in the Middle East. Under the background of strategic competition between major powers, the intensity of foreign powers to arch fire and pour oil in the Middle East has weakened, creating good external conditions for reconciliation among Middle Eastern countries. In particular, the emerging powers represented by China have increased their mediation efforts in the Middle East, actively persuaded peace and promoted talks, provided positive energy, and further promoted the 'tide of reconciliation' among Middle Eastern countries. ”
In recent years, "seeking peace and development" has become the mainstream voice of countries in the Middle East. Pakistan's Tribune Express article said that the people of the Middle East have realized that the actions of the United States in the region have caused decades of turmoil, and wars and conflicts will only further destabilize the region. As Izzat, executive director of Egypt's Foreign Affairs Council, said in an interview, the people of the Middle East have long suffered from war and have long yearned for peace. Media such as the British "Middle East Eye" news network pointed out that the outbreak of the new crown epidemic and the losses caused by it have also made Middle Eastern countries more pragmatic and began to prioritize interest-based agendas such as trade. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has made the location advantage of the eastern Mediterranean region and the importance of its oil and gas resources more prominent, thus creating a positive atmosphere for countries such as Turkey, Israel and Egypt to reach a consensus.
"The 'tide of reconciliation' in the Middle East is determined by changes in the broader international situation," Al Jazeera and other media pointed out when analyzing the acceleration of reconciliation among Middle Eastern countries, pointing out that the United States continues to shift its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific region, gradually changing its strategic focus in the Middle East, and abandoning its traditional commitments to Arab allies. This has led America's Middle East allies to realize that Washington cannot be trusted, and have begun to work to diversify their security and military partners and pursue more hedging strategies. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran want to join the BRICS cooperation mechanism, and Iran is already an observer state in the SCO.
The Wall Street Journal of the United States said that China's successful mediation marks the beginning of a new era in the Middle East. The new reality is that at a time when the United States is increasingly focused on Ukraine and Asia, the Middle East is grappling with past conflicts and tensions, and past regional divisions are turning the page.
How far reconciliation can go remains unknown
At a time when Middle East countries are accelerating reconciliation, the United States has organized retaliatory air strikes in Syria, which have been condemned by Syria and Iran. The Associated Press mentioned that the incident could undermine efforts by all parties to de-escalate tensions throughout the Middle East. Lebanon's "Square TV" website wrote that although the United States claimed to retaliate, it was also issuing a warning to Syria, Iran and regional countries, which undermined regional stability.
The Middle East has long been one of the most volatile regions in the world. According to Qatar's Al Jazeera, armed conflicts in the region account for 1/3 of the world's armed conflicts since the beginning of the 21st century. At present, the reconciliation process in the countries of the Middle East offers hope for peace in the region. However, the complex environment makes the reconciliation process uncertain.
"Since the end of World War II, the Middle East has alternated between conflict and reconciliation cycles, and the Middle East 'reconciliation wave' is also fragile." Sun Degang pointed out in his analysis, "First, the gap within the Islamic world in the Middle East is difficult to eliminate in the short term, and the problem of trust deficit is prominent. Second, the resumption of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Syria is not what the United States and Israel want. The Middle East 'reconciliation tide' is vulnerable to external factors and unexpected events, and even reverses. Third, there is still a long way to go in how Middle Eastern countries can turn their peace deficits into development deficits and solve the growing problems of debt, unemployment, food security, high prices and high inflation. If the economic and people's livelihood problems are not solved well, the 'tide of reconciliation' in the Middle East countries may be interrupted. ”
The New York Times, the British "Middle East Eye" news network and other media also believe that the sustainability of reconciliation among Middle Eastern countries and the resilience of the normalization process of relations remain to be seen. The international and regional situation that has led to accelerated reconciliation among countries in the region is prone to change, and there are uncertainties within countries, so it is still unclear how far reconciliation can go.
The analysis generally pointed out that it takes time for Middle Eastern countries to form a consensus and join forces. For the Middle East, a region of special geostrategic value, the United States and the West will not let go easily, but are also likely to try to undermine the process of regional reconciliation. As The Economist reported, White House policymakers tried to tell their Middle East partners that the United States would not leave the region.
"The development of the situation in the Middle East requires the joint efforts of countries inside and outside the region to continue to promote the normalization of relations between Middle East countries, such as promoting dialogue between different political factions in Yemen, restarting Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, promoting the normalization of relations between Morocco and Algeria, properly resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, opening political dialogue between Iran and Israel, and establishing a multilateral collective security dialogue mechanism in the Middle East." Sun Degang pointed out that "the Middle East issue is difficult to return, but the gradual solution from easy to difficult is not only conducive to regional economic integration in the Middle East, but also provides new ideas for the resolution of other global hotspot issues such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict." ”
Source: People's Daily - People's Daily Overseas Edition