The author, Vijay Prashad, is an executive director of the Tricontinents Institute for Social Research and a senior researcher at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Chinese Minmin University, and this article is transferred from the WeChat public account of "Three Continents News Agency" on March 29, 2023.
"Red" by Boris Mikhailov (formerly the Ukrainian SSR) was written between 1968 and 1975
Dear friends,
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has now set the doomsday clock just 90 seconds before midnight, the closest it has come to symbolizing the demise of humanity and the planet since 1947. This is a wake-up call for the global South leaders to call for an end to war agitation in Ukraine and war provocations against China. As the Prime Minister of Namibia, Sarah Kugungwa Amatira, said: "We want to promote resolutions on the peaceful resolution of conflicts and use the world's resources to improve the living standards of the world's people, not on buying arms, killing people and creating hostile facts." ”
In response to the warning of the Doomsday Clock and the claims of Amatila and others, this issue of this press release features a new article, "Eight Contradictions of the Imperialist 'Rules-Based Order'", written by Keretvi Opku (Convenor of the Ghana Socialist Movement), Manuel Bertoldi (Great Fatherland Front/Federation for Rural Production and Rooting), Deborah Veneziyar (Senior Fellow, Tricontinental, Institute for Social Research) and myself. It also brings together the views of some senior global political leaders and intellectuals. I hope this article will spark a conversation, please read, share, and discuss.
The eight contradictions of imperialism's "rules-based order."
At present, world history is entering a new phase in essence. In the decade or so since the 2008 global financial crisis, the world has changed significantly like never before. One of the manifestations is the new stage of imperialism and the changes in the particularity of its eight contradictions.
1. The contradiction between declining imperialism and thriving socialism led by China. The peaceful rise of socialism with Chinese characteristics has exacerbated this contradiction. For the first time in 500 years, the Atlantic imperialist powers faced a non-white economic power that could compete with them. In 2013, this fact became apparent: China's GDP in purchasing power parity terms surpassed that of the United States. China, whose population base is much larger than that of the United States, achieved this achievement in a much shorter period of time than the West without colonies, without enslavement of other countries, and without military conquest. China supports peaceful relations, while the United States is increasingly belligerent.
Since World War II, the United States has led the imperialist camp. After German Chancellor Angela Merkel left office, as the military conflict in Ukraine progressed, the United States deliberately made the main forces of the European and Japanese bourgeoisie subordinate to its orders. The result is the weakening of the internal contradictions of imperialism. For the two fascist states of World War II, Japan (the world's third-largest economy) and Germany (the world's fourth-largest economy), the United States first allowed and then demanded a significant increase in military spending. The result was the end of Europe's economic relations with Russia, the European economy suffered, and the United States reaped economic and political benefits. Although most of the European political elite is completely subordinate to the United States, Germany's big capital in some fields relies heavily on trade with China, far exceeding the dependence of relevant companies in similar industries in the United States on China. But the United States is currently forcing Europe to curtail its dealings with China.
More importantly, China and the socialist camp now face a more dangerous and stronger triangular strategic relationship between the United States, Europe and Japan. The growing decay within American society cannot hide the near-absolute unity of its political elite in foreign policy. We find that the bourgeoisie is prioritizing its political and military interests over short-term economic interests.
The center of the world economy is shifting, and Russia and the Global South, including China, already account for 65% of the global GDP in purchasing power parity terms. America's share of global GDP in purchasing power parity terms has fallen from 27 percent in 1950 to 15 percent today. The GDP growth rate in the United States has been declining for more than 50 years, and now the annual growth rate has fallen to only about 2%. There are no large new markets for the U.S. to expand. The West is experiencing the bitter consequences of a continuing general crisis of capitalism and a long-term downward trend in the rate of profit.
The Fireplace by Maksud Mirmukhamedov (Tajikistan), 2020
2. The contradictions between the small imperialist clubs of the G7 and their ruling classes and the political and economic elites of the capitalist countries of the Global South. Compared with the golden period of the United States' dominance of the world in the 90s of the last century, this situation has changed significantly. There is a growing rift within the alliance between the G7 and the power elites of the Global South. India's richest men, Ambani and Adani, both need Russian oil and coal. The far-right government led by Modi represents India's monopoly bourgeoisie, so India's Ministry of External Affairs now occasionally issues statements opposing US hegemonic behavior in finance, sanctions and other aspects. The West is economically and politically incapable of forever meeting the needs of power elites in India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and other countries. However, unlike the contradiction between socialist China and the US-led G7, this contradiction has not yet intensified into the focus of many contradictions.
3. The contradiction between the vast urban and rural working class and part of the lower petty bourgeoisie (collectively known as the mass class) in the Global South and the imperialist power elite led by the United States. This contradiction is gradually sharpening. The West has a huge soft-power advantage over all classes in the Global South. For the first time in decades, however, African youth stood up to support the expulsion of French troops from countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso in West Africa. For the first time, the popular class in Colombia elected a new government that refused to allow the country to become an attached post of American military and intelligence forces. Working class women are at the forefront of many important working class and social struggles. Young people rise up against capitalism's environmental crimes. More and more members of the working class are identifying their struggle for peace, development and justice as an open anti-imperialist struggle. They can see the lies of the American idea of "human rights", the environmental destruction of Western energy and mining companies, and the brutality of hybrid wars and sanctions launched by the United States.
Survivor by Zayasek Khan Sambu (Mongolia), 2013
4. The contradiction between developed rent-seeking finance capital and the needs of the mass class and even part of capital in non-socialist countries (necessary social inputs such as organizing industry, sustainable agriculture, employment, development, etc.). The source of this contradiction is the decline in the rate of profit and the difficulty of capital raising the rate of exploitation of the working class by enough to meet the expansion of investment needed to remain competitive. Outside the socialist camp, there is an investment crisis in almost all advanced capitalist countries and most of the countries of the South (with a few exceptions, especially in Asia). New types of companies have emerged, such as hedge funds such as Bridgewater and private equity firms such as BlackRock. In 2022, the "private market" controlled $9.8 trillion in assets. As a fictitious and speculative form of capital, the "market" value of derivatives today stands at $18.3 trillion and its nominal value is $632 trillion, more than five times the total global real GDP.
The emergence of new IT-based network effect monopoly classes, such as Google, Facebook/Meta, Amazon (all controlled by the United States), etc., attracted monopoly rents. Under the direct guidance of the US intelligence services, US digital monopolies have mastered the information system of the world except for a few socialist countries and nationalist countries, which has become the basis for the explosive expansion of US soft power in the past 20 years. The "death monger" military-industrial complex is also attracting more and more investment.
During the period when speculative monopoly rent-seekers intensify capital accumulation, capital's "strike" on socially needed investment intensifies. Neoliberal South Africa and Brazil underwent drastic deindustrialization. Even the developed imperialist countries neglect their own infrastructure such as power grids, bridges, and railways. The global elite has orchestrated a tax strike by drastically reducing tax rates or amounts for individual capitalists and their businesses, and providing legal tax havens to increase the proportion of their surplus value.
Capital evasion of taxes and massive privatization of the public sector have undermined billions of people's access to public goods such as education, health and transportation, and helped Western capital to manipulate and obtain high interest income by exploiting the "artificial" debt crisis faced by the countries of the South. Its culmination is speculation by hedge fund nouveau riche like Soros, which ruins the entire finances of some countries.
The working class has been hit hard, jobs are increasingly precarious, and severe long-term unemployment has decimated many young people around the world. Under capitalism, more and more people become redundant. Social injustice, misery, despair are everywhere.
Bapende, Ousu-Ankoma (Ghana), 1993
5. The contradiction between the popular class of the Global South and its domestic political and economic power elite. This contradiction varies greatly from country to country and region to country. In socialist and progressive countries, contradictions among the people are resolved peacefully and by different methods. However, in some southern countries, the bourgeois elite has become completely complicit with Western capital, and wealth is in the hands of a very small number of people. The suffering of the poor people is widespread, and the capitalist development model can no longer meet the interests of the people. Given the history of neocolonialism and the soft power of the West, there is a general pro-Western consensus among the large middle classes of most of the Global South. The class dominance of the native bourgeoisie and the upper petty bourgeoisie is used to prevent the mass class, which constitutes the majority of the population, from gaining power and influence.
6. The contradiction between imperialism led by the United States and countries that resolutely defend sovereignty. There are four main categories of the latter: socialist countries, progressive countries, other countries opposed to US control, and, as a special case, Russia. The United States has made this contradiction a confrontational contradiction through hybrid warfare: assassinations, invasions, NATO-led military aggression, sanctions, legal wars, trade wars, and now endless propaganda wars with outright lies. Russia is a special case, when it was a socialist country, more than 25 million people died at the hands of European fascist invaders. Russia is once again becoming a target for NATO's elimination. It also has some elements of socialism in the past and a strong patriotism. The United States aims to accomplish its unfinished business in 1992: at least permanently destroying Russia's nuclear weapons capabilities, propping up a puppet regime in Moscow, and achieving a long-term plan to divide Russia by replacing it with many small, permanently weakened Western dependent states.
"Science and Technology" by Taysia Korotkova (Russia), 2007
7. The contradiction between the millions of poor working classes in the countries of the North that are neglected and the bourgeoisie that rules these countries. These workers show signs of rebellion against their economic and social conditions. However, the imperialist bourgeoisie plays the white supremacist card and prevents the broad coalition of the working class in these countries. Today, workers are not always immune to racist war propaganda. Over the past 30 years, the number of people participating in anti-imperialist public activities has been greatly reduced.
8. The contradiction between Western capitalism and the survival of the planet and humanity. The capitalist system has embarked on a path of powerlessness, which wants to destroy the earth and human existence, lead to the danger of nuclear destruction, prevent mankind from collectively saving the earth's air, water and land, and stop the crazy actions of the US nuclear military. Capitalism rejects planning and peace. The Global South, including China, can help the world establish and expand "zones of peace" and strive to live in harmony with nature.
Hide and seek in Lagos, by Victor Eshhamenol (Nigeria), 2014
From these changes in the political landscape, we find that an informal front against the imperialist system dominated by the United States is beginning to rise. This front is an objective confluence of the following factors:
• The will that this system of violence is the main enemy of the world's people
• The desire for a fairer, more peaceful, egalitarian world
• The struggle of socialist, nationalist regimes and political forces to defend sovereignty
• The desire of other countries of the South to reduce their dependence on the system
The main forces opposing the imperialist system dominated by the United States are the peoples of the world and the socialist and nationalist regimes. But there must be room for accommodating governments that wish to reduce their dependence on the imperialist system.
The world is currently at the beginning of a new period during which we will witness the end of America's global empire. The neoliberal system is disintegrating due to the pressure of multiple internal contradictions, historical injustices, and economic infeasibility. Without a better alternative, the world will fall into greater chaos. Our movement has rekindled our hope of changing social suffering.
Abracadabla, by Norma Bezué (Argentina), 1947
It is hoped that The Eight Contradictions of Imperialist "Rules-Based Order" will stimulate debate and discussion and help us in the broader struggle against poisonous social ideas that stifle rational thinking.
Enthusiastic,
Vijay
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