【Text/Observer Network Li Zexi】
On the evening of March 27, the Hungarian National Assembly formally approved the draft approving Finland's accession to NATO by 182 votes in favor and 6 against. The bill will now be sent to Hungarian Prime Minister Orban's desk for signature; After signing, Turkey will be the last hurdle for Finland to join NATO, and Turkey has recently made it clear that it will approve Finland's accession. NATO's northward expansion has become a foregone conclusion.
Results of the Hungarian Parliament vote
The resolution was originally submitted to the Hungarian Parliament by Hungarian Deputy Prime Minister Semjén Zsolt on July 14, 2022; However, for more than seven months, the bill made no progress within the Hungarian Parliament.
At the time, the Hungarian government said that Hungary had a lot of other important matters to deal with; By the end of February when the Hungarian parliament launched a debate on whether to approve Finland's membership in NATO, the Hungarian government "added" a reason for delay: criticism of Hungary from Finland and Sweden. Prime Minister Orbán Viktor said in a February 24 interview that while he supported Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the two countries were "blatantly spreading lies about Hungary's state, the rule of law, democracy, and life," questioning whether they really wanted to be allies with Hungary.
Although this statement has attracted some Westerners' disgust and concern, the main contradiction of NATO's northward expansion has always been not Hungary, but Turkey.
On March 17, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with visiting Finnish President Niinistö in the country's capital, Ankara, and held a joint press conference. Erdogan said Turkey noted Finland's recent substantial progress towards NATO membership, and Finland met Turkey's demands on its own security concerns, "We have decided to start the approval process in parliament." ”
After Turkey's concerns were resolved, Hungary also quickly approved Finland's application. In the elaboration of the by-laws of the draft adopted on the 27th, Hungary's statement was changed back to that it had always supported the accession of these two countries, but hoped to "fully consider Turkey's feelings."
The approach taken by Hungary's ruling party, Fidesz, has been bombarded from both directions. Some parliamentarians believe that Hungary should have passed Finland and Sweden's application to join NATO long ago. Tóth Bertalan, a member of the Hungarian Socialist Party, called the "delay" of the past eight months a "shame", while Gelencsér Ferenc, leader of the Momentum Movement, criticized the Hungarian government's actions as "helping Putin" and "a puppet show"; In response to these skepticism, the Fidesz said that some opposition parties want foreign policy to be pandered to foreign countries, but that ISD will always put Hungary's interests first.
The Hungarian parliament debates Finland's accession to NATO (Source: Hungarian Parliament)
The "Our Fatherland" party, on the other hand, expressed outright opposition to NATO expansion because it would bring World War III one step closer. Novák Előd, deputy chairman of Our Fatherland, said the party sees NATO expansion as a provocation of Russia, not a defensive move, and that NATO also needs a buffer zone with Russia, which Finland and Sweden currently play a role. Dávid Dócs, MP "Our Fatherland", said that if the war escalates and the conflict expands, all sides in Europe will lose, and the United States will benefit again; He proposed that the dispute should be resolved through a referendum.
The party first introduced a bill against NATO expansion; After the proposal was unanimously rejected by all other parties, six members of the party's parliamentarians unanimously opposed Finland's entry into NATO, becoming the only six against.
In response to opposition to Finland's accession, the Fidesz representative said that there was no need for a referendum because there was a "broad social consensus" and that Finland's participation would strengthen NATO, which was also in Hungary's interest.
After Hungary's National Assembly passed the draft, Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin tweeted thanks for the "clear decision," saying that "joining NATO strengthens security for the entire alliance." It is hoped that Sweden will also join before the Vilnius summit, which is in everyone's interest. ”
Screenshot of the Prime Minister of Finland on Twitter
When the leader of the Hungarian Fidesz group in the parliament, Kocis Matai, announced on the 27th that the party would unanimously approve Finland's entry into NATO, he said that a decision on whether to approve Sweden's accession to NATO would be made "later".
At a press conference on the 17th, Erdogan said that negotiations with the Swedish side will continue to advance; He pointed out that he had asked Sweden to extradite 130 "terrorists" to Turkey, but Sweden had not been able to do so, which was the reason why Turkey could not push for approval of Sweden's membership in NATO.
In June last year, the three countries finalized a memorandum of understanding on accession. In the memorandum, Sweden and Finland pledged to support Turkey's counterterrorism efforts, including recognizing the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) as a banned terrorist organization and extraditing "terrorist suspects" deemed by Turkey to be linked to the Gulen movement, which carried out the attempted coup in Turkey in 2016.
The Swedish side believes that the country has fulfilled some of the requirements in the memorandum and that Turkey "wants too much". But Turkey insists Sweden "has not done enough."
On January 21, three protests involving Turkey and NATO were held in the Swedish capital, Stockholm. During this period, Rasmus Parudan, the leader of the Danish far-right party "Hard Line", who has dual Danish and Swedish citizenship, publicly burned the Quran near the Turkish embassy to show his dissatisfaction with Turkey.
On January 23, Erdogan sharply condemned the series of protests, calling it an insult to everyone, especially Muslims. Erdogan is also angry that Swedish authorities have allowed security forces to "protect" the protesters, especially as the protests also take place around the Turkish embassy. He said Sweden should no longer expect Turkey to support its entry into NATO.
And Hungary also seems to need Sweden's "appeasement". On March 26, Orban's senior aide tweeted that the Hungarian government supported Sweden's accession, but "some MPs are concerned that Swedish government officials often question Hungary's democratic institutions and insult our constituents, parliamentarians, and the country as a whole." He said the Hungarian government's goal was "the overwhelming majority of MPs to support Sweden's entry into NATO" and that this would require "Sweden to ensure that the concerns of Hungarian MPs are addressed." Hungary does not comment on or interfere in Swedish domestic politics, expecting them to take the same position on the Hungarian issue. ”
For NATO, Finland's accession is even more important from a geopolitical point of view, because Finland will add hundreds of kilometers of borders with Russia to NATO; Finland's accession will also virtually eliminate the main non-NATO security threat that Sweden may face, as Sweden will be completely surrounded by NATO countries.
Erdogan (right) meets with visiting Niinistö on March 17 and holds a press conference
According to the US "Politico Network", the delay in Sweden's accession to the treaty will inevitably make people question NATO's military strategy and the credibility of the accession process. An anonymous Swedish official said the level of such questioning was proportional to the length of time Sweden was delayed. The official said: "In the short term, we have no major concerns. But if this is a long-term state, then it will become even more worrisome. ”
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also said in a statement on the 17th that it is necessary for Finland and Sweden to quickly become full members of NATO, and whether they join at the same time is not critical.
According to reports, NATO hopes that Turkey will approve Sweden's accession to NATO after Turkey's general election in May this year and before the important summit of NATO leaders in Vilnius, Lithuania in July this year.
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.