"What company to choose in the new energy industry?"
The first is to choose the one that has a good competitive landscape, the one that has already won in this field.
The second is to choose companies with a tight supply and demand structure.
The third is to choose a company that is in the process of industry development and the penetration rate of products is constantly improving.
If its product penetration rate in this industry increases by 10%, while the industry grows by 40%, then its performance may increase by 50% or 60%, and it can also grow faster than the industry. These companies should have excess earnings.
The current market for new energy vehicles should not have reached the end, and now it should be the central area. ”
"The new energy industry may be in a cycle of Sino-US resonance this year and in the next few years, which is a relatively large cycle."
From the past historical experience, the general growth industry, before the industry penetration rate to 40%, its valuation will be maintained at a relatively high level, so there are a number of companies in the new energy industry can have a relatively large market value growth space. ”
"The ceiling of photovoltaics will be lower than that of new energy vehicles, but the marginal changes in the second half of the year are better than those of new energy vehicles."
"This year's soft technology is not very good, whether it is the platform of the Internet or software companies, they have a common attribute, that is, the growth of performance is stable, and then the valuation is high, so this year's market structure style is not very favorable."
However, this year's performance of hard technology is particularly explosive, some benefit from price increases, such as lack of core, both the reasons for the epidemic, the reasons for demand, and the reasons for supply, all aspects of the reasons caused by the lack of cores, resulting in the report, many companies benefit from price increases, the performance of performance is very explosive, profits from tens of millions to hundreds of millions. ”
"I think price increases are a double-edged sword, if a company's current performance benefits from price increases, at some point supply and demand ease, then it will lead to negative profit growth due to price declines, so its valuation is not stable, and the fluctuation of stock prices will be relatively large."
"Assuming a contraction in the fourth quarter, the stocks that suffer the most should be low-growth, high-valuation stocks because they are more sensitive to liquidity, and this type of stock is held more by foreign investors, and the damage will be relatively large."
"Looking back, we think that domestic semiconductor equipment will have a greater chance in hard technology."
This high-level meeting also mentioned that we have to solve the problem of card necks in some key areas.
We can see from the perspective of research that the import substitution process of domestic equipment is accelerating, this year may be a first year, and next year may be from 1 to n. ”
The above is the opinion of Zhang Hui, director of active equity investment of Huatai Berry, on the investment in the second half of the year in the online exchange on September 9.
Zhang Hui is one of the fund managers of the "CongTou TOP30" and currently manages 5 funds with a total size of more than 6 billion.
Taking huatai barrett innovation and upgrading hybrid A for a long time as an example, the fund has achieved a return of 467.53% since Zhang Hui began to manage in 2014, compared with the CSI 300 and the benchmark to obtain excess returns of 335.04% and 389.70%, respectively, and the annualized return is 26.58%.
Source: WIND, as of September 13, 2021
In this exchange, Zhang Hui first talked about the impact of the Fed's contraction policy on the country.
He believes that after the Fed tightens, the global capital market may fluctuate. However, the domestic environment is relatively friendly, and at present, there are still many A-share companies at the medium and low valuation level, which can pursue structural opportunities.
However, such tightening policies could hurt stocks with low growth and high valuations.
For the recent high heat of new energy, photovoltaic, semiconductor and other sectors, Zhang Hui pointed out that the penetration rate of the new energy industry still has a lot of room for growth, and this year and the next few years will be in the sino-US and European resonance cycle.
At present, the market for new energy vehicles has not reached the end, and it is still in the middle zone.
From the perspective of development space, the ceiling of photovoltaics will be lower than that of new energy vehicles, but due to the unsatisfactory performance in the first half of the year, the marginal changes of photovoltaics in the second half of the year are better than those of new energy vehicles.
Zhang Hui also pointed out that in the field of hard technology, the opportunity for semiconductor equipment may be relatively large.
The full text of Satoshi has been compiled as follows:
Fed tightening does not affect the search for structural opportunities in A-shares
Stocks with low growth and high valuations may suffer
Q: There has been a lot of discussion about the Fed's tightening recently, how do you see the impact of the Fed's tightening on domestic investment?
Zhang Hui: If the Fed starts to shrink in the second half of the year, there may be fluctuations in the global capital market, but our environment is still friendly, and it is better to pursue structural opportunities.
There are about 4,000 companies in all A-shares, and about 46% of these 4,000 companies are valued at within 30 times the price-earnings ratio, which is the middle and low.
Compared with the market peak on June 12, 2015, when all companies with an A-share market earnings ratio of less than 30 times accounted for less than 10% of all A-shares.
Therefore, at present, there are still more A-share companies at the medium and low valuation level, indicating that we still have a lot of room to tap the structural opportunities of individual stocks.
Instead of putting the investment opportunity at the level of increasing valuation, because the increase in valuation is the most unstable, it may rise up and down.
Q: Assuming a contraction occurs in the fourth quarter, what kind of stocks will suffer more damage?
Zhang Hui: If the domestic monetary environment remains relatively stable, I think the discount rate of A-share stocks is basically stable, and the most damaged stocks should be stocks with low growth and high valuation.
Because they are more sensitive to liquidity, and the proportion of these stocks held by foreign investors is relatively high, the damage will be relatively large.
Other stocks may actually just be disturbed, but in the end, it is their own performance growth and its valuation that determine the change in stock prices.
So I want to make a simple summary: A shares still have a lot of minable stocks, the domestic environment is stable, even if the future overseas liquidity contraction, for us may only be fluctuations, does not affect the search for structural opportunities.
The new energy automobile industry is developing from 1 to n
The coming years are likely to be in a cycle of Sino-US resonance
Q: What do you think of investment opportunities in technology stocks, new energy, and semiconductors?
Zhang Hui: In fact, the performance of science and technology this year is still relatively good, and I think the most fundamental reason is that the performance is very good.
There are also many small partners who joke that the technology industry is a scumbag industry, but this year's scumbags have performed, so it is not scum this year.
This year's new energy automobile industry is developing from 1 to n, and it has gone through the process of 0 to 1.
This industry has actually had opportunities in the past few years, but the fluctuations are relatively large.
Why?
Because the policies of this industry change frequently.
Everyone buys a new energy vehicle because it has subsidies, and if there is no subsidy, it has no cost performance compared with gasoline vehicles.
However, in the past two years, we have found that more and more people around to buy new energy vehicles, including buying foreign brand electric vehicles, and some domestic independent brand electric vehicles.
More and more people drive electric vehicles, because their driving experience and degree of intelligence are not at the same level as the traditional gasoline vehicles in the past, and its overall design concept and manufacturing process have undergone very significant changes.
The most important thing for the investment industry is to think about how much room the industry has to grow, that is, what its end game will be.
The end result of the new energy vehicle industry is that it is a consumer product downstream. While the car is an optional consumer product, it consumes about 80 million vehicles a year.
So what is the expected annual sales volume of new energy vehicles this year?
From the 4 million vehicles expected at the beginning of the year, it has now risen to 5 million vehicles, and the global penetration rate is still less than 10%.
The penetration of China's new energy vehicles was still 10% at the beginning of the year, of course, this year because of the problem of denominator changes - the lack of chips, the number of traditional cars has declined, so its denominator is small.
But we can roughly see that this data has gone from 10% at the beginning of this year to 17% now.
In 9 months, the penetration rate increased by 7%, which is still very fast, and the industry is accelerating.
In addition to this, we can see that China is now finished with policy contraction and then entering the model cycle. Foreign countries have always been model cycles, and then they are now entering a cycle of policy acceleration.
Europe mentioned how much of their future penetration rate to achieve, and even in advance, the Biden administration also mentioned to create clean energy, the development of electric vehicles, he also hopes to launch a subsidy plan, so the new energy vehicle industry in Europe and the United States in their own model cycle, and then entered the policy promotion cycle.
The new energy industry may be in a cycle of Sino-US resonance this year and the next few years, which is a relatively large cycle.
From the past historical experience, the general growth industry, before the industry penetration rate to 40%, its valuation will be maintained at a relatively high level, so there are a number of companies in the new energy industry can have a relatively large market value growth space.
Some companies are cyclical, that is, to increase prices, but the long-term barriers have not been raised.
But there are companies that have already won in certain areas, and they can benefit from this industry, and there may be 10 times more room for growth.
For example, from the current 5 million to 50 million, then it has 10 times the room to grow.
It can also grow with the industry itself, its performance may also have 10 times growth, considering the decline in valuation, then its stock price may have 5 times or more performance.
This is our view of the industry.
The market for new energy vehicles has not yet peaked
Select companies with a good competitive pattern, tight supply and demand structure, and continuous product penetration
Q: What company do we want to choose in the new energy industry?
Zhang Hui: The first one is to choose the one that has a good competitive pattern, and it has already won in this field.
In the process of increasing industry penetration and growing the industry, the tight supply and demand structure can increase prices, then its profit growth will be faster than the industry.
If its product penetration rate in this industry increases by 10%, while the industry grows by 40%, then its performance may increase by 50% or 60%, and it can also grow faster than the industry. These companies should have excess returns in the development of the industry.
The current market for new energy vehicles should not have reached the end, and now it should be the central area.
The ceiling of photovoltaics is lower than that of new energy vehicles
However, the marginal change of photovoltaics in the second half of the year is better than that of new energy
Q: What do you think about photovoltaics?
Zhang Hui: From the perspective of industrial growth space, photovoltaic is lower than new energy vehicles, and its ceiling is lower than that of new energy vehicles.
It will be subject to some other problems in other fields, such as the consumption of the power grid, the subsidy of the industry, and the balance between different energy sources, so there are many problems involved, but its long-term space is still large.
The Biden administration also mentioned that by 2025 and 2030, photovoltaic power generation will account for a certain percentage of the entire power generation system. My impression seems to be that by 2030, it will reach the level of 45% or 50%, so there is still a lot of room for the development of this industry.
But the difference between it and new energy vehicles is that this industry is a capital product.
How to understand this problem?
We say that the development space of this industry is large, and eventually thermal power or other non-clean energy will be replaced by photovoltaics, but it does not mean that the industry has grown every year.
For example, this year's global photovoltaic installed capacity is 160 GW, next year's installation of 140 GW, then the penetration rate of photovoltaics is still increasing, but the industry is negative growth.
Therefore, the valuation of this industry, compared to the consumer goods industry such as new energy vehicles, is discounted, which is determined by the attributes of its business model.
However, in terms of marginal changes, the marginal changes in photovoltaics are more drastic than new energy vehicles from the perspective of the situation in the second half of the year and next year, because it is not good in the first half of the year.
We all know that in the first half of the year, due to the shortage of certain links, the price increase of these links was caused.
However, this industry needs to increase penetration through continuous price reductions, and price increases are paradoxical to the logic of this industry.
Therefore, it will affect the profitability of downstream power plant enterprises, which will affect the willingness to purchase.
The electricity price is not very able to make a big adjustment, so it will eventually be transmitted to various fields downstream, which will affect the production costs of all walks of life.
Of course, I think the recently launched green power policy is still very meaningful to the development of this industry.
To a certain extent, the electricity generated by clean energy can be different from the electricity generated by other fields of energy, but it will still be constrained by price increases. This is an important reason for the poor performance of the industry in the first half of this year.
Under the background of large carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, the domestic policy strength and determination to develop photovoltaics are very large.
However, overseas is not too affected, because overseas electricity prices are more expensive than ours, so the rise in domestic module prices has little impact on exports this year, but there is a suppression of domestic demand in the first half of this year.
After August, as the industry is about to enter the peak season in the second half of the year, we see that the margin of the industry is getting better, so the previous sector also has a certain performance.
In the absence of a particularly large external impact and a further surge in the price of the upstream link, the growth rate of this industry in the third quarter, the fourth quarter to the first quarter and second quarter of next year are improving, which is a better opportunity from the perspective of investment.
So I think there is also a chance for photovoltaic follow-up, but its ceiling will be lower than that of new energy vehicles, and it is better than new energy vehicles in terms of marginal changes, which is my general view of photovoltaics.
Semiconductor price increases are a double-edged sword
Domestic semiconductor equipment has a greater opportunity in hard technology
Q: What do you think of the semiconductor industry?
Zhang Hui: In fact, this year's soft technology is not very good, whether it is the platform of the Internet or software companies, they all have a common attribute, that is, the growth of performance is stable, and then the valuation is high, so it is not very favorable under the market structure style this year.
But this year we can see that the performance of hard technology is particularly explosive,
Some are benefiting from price increases, such as lack of core, both the causes of the epidemic, the reasons for demand, and the reasons for supply, all aspects of the reasons caused by the lack of cores, resulting in the report, we see a lot of companies benefit from price increases, the performance of performance is very explosive, profits from tens of millions to hundreds of millions.
This kind of cyclical industry, which is a bit like coal and steel, has increased prices to drive growth.
I think price increases are a double-edged sword,
If a company's current performance benefits from price increases, and at some point supply and demand ease, then it will lead to negative profit growth due to price declines, so its valuation is not stable, and the fluctuation of stock prices will be relatively large.
Looking back, we think that the opportunity for domestic semiconductor equipment in hard technology will be greater.
We can see from the perspective of research that the import substitution process of domestic equipment is accelerating, this year may be a first year, and next year may be from 1 to n.
So I think in the field of hard technology, the opportunity for semiconductor equipment may be greater.
In addition to the field of VR, in addition to the overseas Facebook is promoting, the domestic vibrato has recently intervened, and then the giants are also paying attention.
This field is likely to become another phenomenon-level field after smart phones and smart terminals in the field of consumer electronics, but the current amount is not enough to produce a phenomenon, so it is still being observed.
But the giants are paying attention, so I think this is also worth our attention.
We see that companies in related fields, when considering performance growth and valuation, its matching degree is still OK, so I think this is worth paying attention to outside of semiconductors.
The logic of cyclical stocks is in supply
Next year's market should be divided
Q: How do you see this year's cycle and growth switch? Can I still buy cyclical stocks?
Zhang Hui: The boom in the cycle this year is very good, and I myself am reflecting on why I haven't bought a lot of cycle stocks.
Indeed, I think cyclical investing is a difficult thing for many investors because its profitable growth benefits from price, and its stock price will precede its fundamentals.
If we have a DCF discount model in mind, you'll find that the easiest thing to grasp is the growth of performance and the direction of its growth.
For example, we may study whether the company's growth this year is 50% or 80%, which is relatively easy to judge, but it is difficult to judge whether its valuation is 5 times or 8 times the value, which are the results of market transactions, so it is particularly difficult to invest in such stocks.
You'll find it getting cheaper and cheaper, and at some point it's peaking.
Then when it falls, it is cheap at the beginning, and when it finally goes wrong with the fundamentals, it will be found that it has become expensive, which is the problem of investment cycle stocks.
In fact, since the second half of last year, cyclical stocks have been performing, and the stages of its performance have been different.
From the second half of last year to the first quarter of this year, more is talking about the logic of pro-cyclical and demand recovery, the second quarter of this year still has fluctuations, and then the second quarter so far, more is talking about the logic of supply, and has nothing to do with demand.
As you can see, the downstream demand is weak, the performance of many consumer goods is not very good, while infrastructure and exports are weakening, and real estate has not relaxed.
There are many small partners who ask where the logic of the cycle is,
The logic of the cycle is actually in the supply, and the areas that perform better are the links that are mentioned more today, that is, power rationing.
This year, there are many areas of insufficient power supply, resulting in supply in the short term can not come out, and then coupled with the long-term carbon peak, carbon neutrality policy guidance, some high pollution, high energy consumption industry in principle is not new, which makes the supply in these areas in the short term can not come out, may not be long-term.
If its demand is better, then its price may remain at a relatively high level, and its performance will change very significantly this year, greatly exceeding the expectations of investors.
If you look at next year, I think the cyclical market should be differentiated,
Some areas have no quantitative logic and no price logic in the next year, then its performance next year is flat, then the valuation of these companies is repaired to a certain extent, and its stock price will peak.
For some companies with quantitative logic and at the same time the logic of medium- and long-term supply contraction, it may still have the opportunity to repeatedly perform, then its profitability may be adjusted upwards, I think there will be a certain performance opportunity.
There are many subdivisions of the field, because of a variety of reasons, supply contraction + demand becomes better, the downstream may be related to electric vehicles or photovoltaics, and then the upstream is related to environmental protection, that is, the supply is limited, the demand is also very good, then its prosperity will be longer.
This year has not been friendly to high valuations
Be mentally prepared not to make money for a year
Fund managers who select stocks from the bottom up and make more industry choices perform well
Q: Active equity funds have a very good and considerable return in the long run, but many basic people have reflected that they have not actually made money, especially like the fund explosion at the beginning of this year, many people bought a lot of star fund manager products at the beginning of the year, but now they are still losing money. What do you think we should focus on when choosing a fund? Do you have any mental advice to share with you?
Zhang Hui: Different managers have different understandings of investment, and there is no right or wrong.
Everyone's understanding of what is a good company, what is a good industry, and the understanding of the time dimension of investment are all different.
Some investors advocate long-termism, that is, to see what kind of company the endgame is;
Some investors may look shorter, that is, to see whether the short-term explosive power is strong or not. I don't think anyone is necessarily right or wrong, everyone is exploring ways to beat the market.
Therefore, I think that no matter what kind of manager's product you buy, you first need to have a certain understanding of the manager himself, and whether his investment method is compatible with your investment philosophy and capital duration.
You have to know who he bought, what he invested in, how he chose stocks. The nature of different funds also determines that different managers should be matched.
Of course, everyone is happy when it rises, but it is not happy when it falls.
But looking at the net value is always fluctuating, if the manager's own investment method is effective, he has been practicing his investment method, maybe when he performs badly, it is the time when you go to a better investment.
When he starts to perform well again, you may reap changes in your net worth that far exceed the magnitude of the market's change. This is something you need to identify, it's a fund-level issue.
The difference in the performance of this year's fund is relatively large, it should be a relatively large one in history, and the yield of the fund at the beginning and end may be 100 different, which is a very big difference.
At the end of last year, we talked to some investors, and we also said at the time, you may have to be mentally prepared not to make money for a year.
Because we can see the group of companies that have invested in the past, from the time dimension of 5 years, the ability to compound annual returns has dropped to a low level, the market will fluctuate, and it will take time to digest.
Looking back, this judgment is not wrong, and even the performance of the market may be more pessimistic.
Your performance can meet expectations, but your valuation is on the high side, and the best result is to be able to rise a little;
The poor result may be in a continuous decline, if the performance is lower than expected, it may fall very much, this is the situation this year,
To sum up simply, the funds that have performed better this year can achieve valuation sinking within the range of prosperity.
That is, the growth of the company's performance this year is very good, but in the past it was not the leader, there was a discount, and then the performance was very good this year, it earned the money of the performance this year, and the money of the valuation, its performance this year is very prominent. In fact, this is the same as the performance of the dragon in the past few years.
The market has been seeking to sink valuations, whether it is investment cycle stocks, or new energy vehicles, semiconductors and military industries, in fact, it is a similar idea.
In each field, companies with high valuations are actually not outstanding, while companies with high cost performance, that is, companies with good performance and low valuations, are prominent this year.
Recently, we have also seen that photovoltaics, new energy, semiconductors and military industries, which may be more prominent from April to July, have recently fluctuated or sideways.
And some cycles, as well as some companies related to new energy, it performed better. The market is looking for a certain valuation to sink, and this year it is not friendly to high valuations.
If you have slow growth and high valuations this year, the worst performance will be the worst; if you grow fast and have high valuations, you may need time to digest and wait for valuations to switch or performance increases; if you have good growth this year and low valuations, this year is a big bull stock.
Whether you are doing cycles or growing, there are opportunities for performance, but the time period of performance may vary.
Fund managers who may be bottom-up stock picks and more industry choices this year will perform better.
The kind of fund manager who looks far ahead and then takes a stock valuation that is relatively high will perform worse this year and need time to digest.
Here are some of the ideas I gave you in terms of choosing a fund.
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