Before reading this article, please click "Follow", which is convenient for you to discuss and share, and can bring you a different sense of participation, thank you for your support [Be careful with you]
The so-called odds of victory depend on what Japan's so-called "victory" is, that is, what are its goals and needs for waging war? Like Germany, Japan is a latecomer country with a strong need for industrialization and modernization, but it has a large population and a small territory, so they are all eyes on the outside in order to expand the "development space". Vested interests in other countries will not watch Japan expand unrestrained.
The Great Kanto Earthquake in Japan
The fundamental conflict between Japan and the Western powers and China began in World War I and intensified with the events of 9/18, which led to Japan's withdrawal from the League of Nations. Japan's invasion of China and the Pacific War seem to be the result of the continuous expansion of his ambitions, and on the other hand, it is also the result of the continuous tightening of the "noose" against him in the international community.
This noose began with the Washington Naval Treaty after World War I, and repeated trade restrictions, such as the U.S. trade embargo and China's boycott of Japanese goods, made Japan "breathless."
In the era when trade globalization had not yet taken shape, Japan's ambitions could only be "involving" under the existing world order, unless it "forced Liangshan" to launch a war to break this order. Then it depends on everyone's strength, unfortunately, Japan does not have this strength.
For example, the tonnage of warships at the peak of the Japanese Navy is only the level of a fleet in the Pacific Ocean in peacetime of the United States, let alone the rest.
Image source network
If Japan only wants to achieve a few "small goals" of the free trade treaty, and through limited military action, it is possible to reach a peace treaty to end the war. If the target is too big, it is not up to him. In the negotiations between Japan and the United States before Pearl Harbor, the United States put forward the condition that Japan restore the situation before the July Seven Incident, so that the trade embargo against Japan could be lifted, in fact, it also tacitly acquiesced to Japan's occupation of the three eastern provinces.
But if Japan does not do it, and the army is unwilling to withdraw from the customs area, then there is no way, let's start fighting. Puyi and Emperor Hirohito, therefore, at that time China was very dangerous, if Japan accepted that "small target", Tohoku may be lost, and it is difficult to say in the future, because there are also 23 countries in the world that recognize "Manchukuo".
Fortunately, Japan's "appetite" does not match its strength, and since the Sino-Japanese War, the fluke mentality has been at fault, so there is no way. Interestingly, judging from the results after the war, Japan does not seem to have been defeated, at least some people in Japan think so, because the goals that Japan wanted to achieve after the defeat seem to have been achieved.
In the 1941 Hundred Regiments War, Japan fully exposed its lack of troops
Look at Japan's current global economic position, whether it is trade freedom, raw materials and markets, or internationalization, modernization, etc. The emperor is still there, as if the war has only allowed Japan to spiral in development. Although Japanese militarism is arrogant and arrogant, in fact, even China, an agricultural country under the division of warlords, can only win a more difficult battle and cannot completely defeat it.
In 1941, the Hundred Regiments War fully exposed the lack of troops, the national strength was at the bottom, and the occupied areas could not be completely controlled except for the main county towns. The desperate launch of the Pacific War was actually a sneak attack by the United States and Britain to impose sanctions on its strategic materials, and even if it was a great success, it did not pose the slightest threat to the fundamental national strength of the United States. All strategic moves are in the calculations of the United States, which simply needs an excuse to completely harvest both sides of the war.
Image source network
Japan has absolutely no chance of winning! Strictly speaking, the defeat of the fascist state in World War II began with two things
1 is Germany attacking the former Soviet Union, 2 is Japan attacking the United States! Because modern wars are fought on the justice of war and the comprehensive national strength of the belligerents! The expansion and enslavement of German, Italian-Japanese fascist and oppression of other peoples is itself unjust, and it is also necessary to challenge opponents whose industrial strength is far stronger than their own, and defeat is inevitable!
Taking Japan as an example, Yamamoto Fifty-Six, Konoe Fumiki and others have a clear understanding of the United States, believing that Japan does not have the conditions to "finish the battle" to fight against the United States, and Japan will definitely be on the defensive half a year later, but those arrogant Japanese Showa warlords (including Emperor Hirohito) have a crushed confidence in Japan, and everyone has seen the result! Japan attacked Pearl Harbor, and the happiest were Churchill and Chiang Kai-shek, especially Chiang Kai-shek!
Japan fought until the Pacific War, and both materials and loans were exhausted!
When Japan launched a war of aggression against China, the money was loaned by the United States, the armament materials were bought with the United States, and the technology was still given by the United States! When Japan fought the Pacific War, materials and loans were exhausted by China! What else did Japan fight the Pacific War? This is another mention of why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor!
At that time, the situation was that Japan ran out of supplies and money, there was no money to pay off America's war loans, and the United States began to ban gasoline sales to Japan. Japan urgently needs gasoline, so it can't wait to divide troops to attack Southeast Asia all the way to India, etc., and the division of troops is to grab money and oil! However, these territories are the interests of European and American colonies, and European countries themselves cannot be secured, leaving the United States with the ability and time to clean up Japan. Instead of waiting for direct retaliation by the United States, it is better to destroy the US Navy first so that they will not be able to live for a short time.
Image source network
So Japan began to gamble on national luck again. Attack on Pearl Harbor, betting that the US Navy will not have time to intervene in the war in Southeast Asia. Japan just wants to delay the return of materials to Southeast Asia to the rear of Japan, fight to the death with China, and if it wins the territory with China, it is not afraid of the United States, and if it loses, it will have nothing, and it is not afraid of American revenge. The result was obvious, so Japan at that time could not delay even if it had the strength to be tough with the United States.
This is also the reason why Japan has not admitted defeat! Because in their consciousness, as long as they delay living in the United States, the materials from Southeast Asia will come back, and it is a big deal to bow, not only can compensate the United States to resolve the contradiction, but also have capital to fight to the death with China. So they think they just lost to the United States. But without looking at how the Chinese Army to resist US aggression and aid Korea pushed the US 17th coalition army, don't say anything about a draw, is there a draw that is pushed from the Yalu River to the 38th parallel? As far as Japan's little strength is concerned, in the face of the army under the leadership of the Communist Party, it is just a little stronger than the native dog.
Image source network
Before the war with the United States, except for a very small number of fanatics in the upper echelons (except for the middle and lower classes of military people who were seduced by propaganda, they had no decision-making power), the vast majority of generals and civilian officials believed that it was impossible to defeat the United States, and the gap in national strength between the two countries was too large, especially after the United States abolished the "Anglo-Japanese Alliance" compared to Britain, Wokou knew that war was inevitable, so he wanted to solve the Chinese battlefield as soon as possible, and then designed the so-called nine-dan strike and other strategic tactics, in order to inflict as much damage as possible on the US Navy in the early stage of the war and drag the United States to the negotiating table. Let the United States recognize Japan's vested interests and sphere of influence.
In the middle of the war, with the crushing defeat of Midway, the Chinese battlefield was again plunged into a protracted war for China. The upper ruling class, headed by Hirohito, the waku chieftain, thoroughly understood that the war could not be fought, and even many middle-ranking army and navy officers began to be passively disappointed with the war. However, he was still reluctant to give up the territory he had invaded, holding on to the illusion that he could negotiate with the United States. Until the Soviet Union tore up the neutrality treaty and declared war on the Wokou, the Wokou was still trying to get the Soviet Union to mediate.
Image source network
Japan defeated the two giants of the Great Qing and Tsarist Russia in the Sino-Japanese War and the Battle of Tsushima, respectively, and both received land cession and compensation, resulting in unlimited ambitions, and finally wanted to kill the third giant——- the United States, but kicked on the steel plate! The Japanese never think about problems, they only want to be good for themselves, they never consider the devastating blow that may be incurred after defeat, and they do not even have a plan for the defeat of the battle!
Once the war is unfavorable, they are at a loss, once things are not as they expected, they are helpless and faint, such as attacking Pearl Harbor, they do not expect that the United States will declare war; When launching a war of aggression against China, he did not expect that he would not be able to take China; provoked Soviet Russia, and counted on Soviet Russia to mediate, but I did not expect that Soviet Russia directly sent troops to the northeast! This series of brainless operations directly allowed Japan to spit out all the benefits it had made since the Sino-Japanese War, and also pasted out the four northern islands and national sovereignty, becoming a soft persimmon that the United States can knead at will and an economic colony that stepped on the soles of its feet, and there will never be a day to turn over!
During the war, the Soviet T34 defeated the German tiger and leopard by production
Americans train troops to see the base of bullets, and the most bullets sent out in the shortest time are good soldiers, and the material consumption of the United States in World War II is more than 200 times that of a single Japanese soldier. So the United States hit industry. In the early stages of the battle, the U.S. Pacific Fleet was sparse, because there was almost no war in the Pacific, and the Atlantic was a bit at odds with Germany, as they were transporting supplies to aid Britain.
So after the attack on Pearl Harbor, the Americans did not have a few aircraft carriers at all, a large number of aircraft carriers, through repair and modification, that is, after the attack on Pearl Harbor. But the United States has a developed industry, in fact, to the Battle of Midway, although the number of aircraft carrier groups is average, but the number of aircraft has grown significantly, and then it is considerable, after World War II, the United States built more than 140 aircraft carriers, while Japan really succeeded less than 10.
Image source network
There are similarities between American and Soviet industry, and in the war period, the Soviet T34 defeated the German tiger and leopard by production. German tanks with high accuracy, but in small numbers, were not suitable for large-scale confrontational operations. And Japan completely lost to American industry, on the one hand, Japan has few resources, steel and oil were originally to be imported by the United States, a war, no resources, and Japan provoked the Pacific War for resources.
Image source network
The gap in national strength of the United States is too big, in fact, the aircraft carriers built by the United States are not only for their own use, during World War II, the United States built and modified up to 150 aircraft carriers, not to mention some of their own use, but also sent 48 to Britain. This was thanks to the fact that the United States produced 80 million tons of steel during World War II, which is not comparable to Japan.
During World War II, from 1941 to 1945, more than 297,000 aircraft were produced, while Japan produced more than 35,000. The main reason for determining whether or not Japan continues the war is whether Japan's decision-making ranks judge whether its national resources are sufficient to support it against the United States, or at least drag the United States into a quagmire that leads to defeat for both sides, and finally conditional surrender.
If China had capitulated before the Pacific War, Japan could gradually digest the gains of the Chinese battlefield over a period of several years. For example, Northeast China, as the base of Japan's industry and agriculture at that time, could provide Japan with considerable resources; the plunder of newly occupied areas; At the same time, Chinese mainland's land transportation continuously transported various resources from Southeast Asia to Japan, reducing the risk of sea transportation, and avoiding the passive situation of the Japanese archipelago being blocked by US mines in the later period. In the end, I really can't hold the islands, and I run to the mainland to fight guerrilla? This is the necessary condition for strategic depth, a world-class country.
Image source network
China's insistence on the War of Resistance was to leave Japan without a rear, and the Soviet Union's dispatch of troops precisely ended the status of northeast China as Japan's industrial and agricultural base and source base, and disposed of Japan's rear area for continuing the war. On the contrary, assuming that Japan relies only on the Japanese archipelago and Southeast Asia it occupied after the Pacific War began, its depth and various soft and hard resources, and the confrontational strength that evolved from it, are relatively weak. Even though its army is strong, it is scattered across the islands. At the same time, sea transport will also be hit by the US Navy.
If the United States wants to end Japan, it does not have to fight for every island, but directly hit the mainland. In fact, the main reason why Japan was finally forced to surrender was that it had been dealt a major blow to its homeland and had nowhere to escape. The specific beginning and end of the war are quite accidental. However, there are still examples of factors that hastened the end of the war. Otherwise, at the Yalta Conference, why did the Americans struggle to coordinate the participation of all forces? This was to end the war with Japan as soon as possible.