Author / Intelligence Service Forecasting Panel of Experts
【Box Office Prediction】
007: No Time to Die Global
Schedule: October 29
First day forecast: 0.75 billion → 0.55 billion
Cumulative forecast: 480 million → 420 million
General Trend: Slightly downward
"007: No Time to Die", which was first scheduled to be released on October 25, 2019, was finally postponed for two full years to October 2021. Although MGM, the copyright holder of the "007" series, has been acquired by Amazon, the film still maintains the advantage of a single shot in theaters. In addition, the distribution company of this film was also replaced by the original Sony Pictures to the current Universal Pictures.
Because of the existence of Universal Beijing Resort, Universal's public relations with government departments have remained good this year, which may be the reason why the film can be scheduled more than a month in advance. In addition, as Universal's first film after the opening of Universal Resort, the film also held a grand premiere of Chinese mainland at the Universal City Avenue Cinema, which also made the film receive higher attention.
However, the film is not optimistic enough in terms of popularity or pre-sales. The pre-sale level in the same period is even slightly lower than the current box office landing point of 200-250 million "Dune", but considering that the film has a high passerby attribute, the first day box office reached 50 million + level is still very stable.
In terms of word of mouth, from the current overseas word-of-mouth trend of the film and the length of the film's 163 minutes, it is difficult for this film to achieve the audience reputation of the previous work, and it is difficult to break through the box office performance of the previous work "Ghost Party" of 540 million+, but considering that the current "Venom 2" still has no way to determine the schedule of next weekend, the film may still be able to enjoy the box office space for two full weeks, and finally may be able to get 7-8 times the first-day box office momentum.
"Entering the Mortician" ticket shopping
First day forecast: 0.03 billion → 0.04 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.25 billion → 0.26 billion
General trend: basically flat
After more than half a year of official introduction, "Entering the Mortician Division" finally determined the mainland schedule.
"Entering the Mortician Division" is directed by the famous Japanese director Yojiro Takita, starring Masahiro Motoki, Ryoko Hiromi, and Tsutomu Yamazaki. Released in Japan in 2008, the film has won 10 awards at the Japan Academy Awards and the Academy Award for Best Foreign Language Film. In 2010, when Premier Wen visited Japan, he also specifically mentioned this film, which contributed to the warming of Sino-Japanese relations. At present, the Douban score of the film is as high as 8.9 points, ranking 111th in the Douban TOP250. It is reported that the film was introduced and distributed by Yongkang Yinglin Film and Television.
Although the film has a high reputation, the current October-November schedule environment is also more friendly for the batch film, compared with other small films in the same period, this film is also the most promising to break through the 20 million box office mark.
"Wuhai" giant run
First day forecast: 0.05 billion → 0.04 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.24 billion → 0.18 billion
As a literary and art film, "Old Beast" director Zhou Ziyang's new work "Wuhai" was once scheduled for the Dragon Boat Festival, and then regrettably withdrawn, although it has an important role in the two blockbuster films of the National Day file, But Huang Xuan still lacks a certain degree of single resistance strength. Although the film received a certain heat bonus last week with clips, the display conversion is still low after the pre-sale is opened.
"I Am the Guardian" film association
First day forecast: 0.02 billion → 0.01 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.08 billion → 0.04 billion
General Trend: Significant downward revision
This film, which was hastily scheduled for September 10 and then hastily withdrawn, even if it is changed to a schedule, it is still difficult to break through in the sea of small pieces.
"Heavenly Book" on the beauty & cat's eye
Schedule: November 5
First day forecast: 0.03 million
Cumulative forecast: 0.26 billion
The 1983 classic animated film "Tianshu Qitan" was officially announced and will debut on the big screen on November 5. Moreover, the version released this time is a new 4K restoration of the film. As a classic in domestic animation films, I believe that many viewers have a deep impression of this film. Even though nearly 40 years have passed, this film still has a super high evaluation of 9.2 points on Douban, which can be described as the benchmark of domestic animation.
In 2018, Shangmei Film Studio restarted the restoration project of "Tianshu Qitan". At the beginning of 2019, the official microblog of the Shanghai Municipal Government Information Office @ Shanghai released that the restored version of "Tianshu Qitan" will be released in 2019. Later, due to a series of reasons, the film was not released as scheduled. Until this year, the 4K restoration is finally late and will officially meet with the audience.
Although the classic re-screenings in the past two years have achieved good box office performance, but the performance of the excellent basically imported films, as a classic domestic animation, the film is currently performing well in pre-screening popularity, and may have a relatively good box office performance.
"The Wonders of Immortality" shines
First day forecast: 0.02 billion
Cumulative forecast: 0.1 billion
"The Strange Affair of Immortality" is written by Wang Shuo, directed by young director Xu Chao, and starring Wang Chuanjun and Wang Luodan. The film first appeared at the Shanghai Film Festival in June 2017 and was unveiled at the film list launch of Time Impact Pictures. A year and a half later, in October 2018, the film held a launch conference in Beijing and officially started shooting in February 2019. In addition, the film was also shortlisted for the 2019 Beijing Publicity and Culture Guidance Fund's Young Film Talent Creation Support Project, and won the funding award.
A year ago, on October 28, the film officially released the final trailer and poster, announcing that it will be finalized on January 22, 2021. However, in the next two months, in addition to the patch trailer patch part of the New Year film, the film did not carry out any other publicity action, but also planted the seed for the withdrawal of the film.
This time again set the file, and then raised the file, the film's trailer performance and popularity are still relatively general, and it may be difficult to make too much breakthrough at the box office.
"Fame and Fame" Cat's Eye & Wanhe Tianyi
Schedule: November 11
Cumulative forecast: 0.6 billion → 0.85 billion
General Trend: Slightly increased
"Fame and Fame", which was scheduled more than six months in advance, still can't escape the fate of the two films "Door Lock" and "Railway Hero" in the same file period, and the current pre-screening heat of the film has not received too many bonuses because the film is set ahead.
Director Liu Xunzimo is a web drama director, with wanhe Tianyi's series of web drama "Report Boss" to become famous, "Yang Ming Li Wan" is the first film work he directed, and there are also wan wan team figures in the main creative lineup of "Yang Ming Li Wan", such as Zhang Benyu, Kodak and other old friends. At the same time, the cast also includes Yin Zheng, Deng Jiajia, Yu Entai, Yang Haoyu, Chen Minghao, Qin Xiaoxian and so on.
However, the film dares to be scheduled in advance to Thursday, November 11, presumably also has a high reputation confidence, and may have an unexpected market performance.
"Mei Yanfang" is happy
Schedule: November 12
Cumulative forecast: 0.85 billion → 0.8 billion
The film "Mei Yanfang" was created and produced by Jiang Zhiqiang's Anle Pictures, directed by Liang Lemin. This film tells the story of Mei Yanfang's legendary life from being born poor to a star-studded generation of divas, and finally bidding farewell to the stage. In the film, the role of Mei Yanfang is played by newcomer actor Wang Dani, who is a model, which is also her first time to appear in the movie.
The film's director, Leung Lok Man, is the best director winner of the Hong Kong Film Awards, and his co-directing and screenplaying of the "Cold War" series with his partner Lu Jianqing has previously achieved good market results. However, although the audience loves Mui Yanfang herself, considering the previous market performance of Hong Kong drama films in the mainland, it is difficult for "Mui Yanfang" to achieve particularly high market results this time.
"Door Lock" Hengye & Taobao Tickets
Schedule: November 19
Cumulative forecast: 220 million → 220 million
During last year's Golden Rooster Awards, Hengye Pictures released a list of films, and this crime genre film "Door Lock" is its key project. Directed by Buick, the director who directed the spy drama "Aiming" last year, it starred Bai Baihe, Bai Ke, Fan Chengcheng and Wang Zixuan. Like many of Hengye's recent works, "Door Lock" is also a remake of the film, and its original work of the same name was released in South Korea in December 2018, which gained a good reputation, less than three years after the release of the original work, and also showed the film's faster copyright transaction and production process.
In the 2019 Lunar New Year file, "Manslaughter" produced by Hengye Pictures won a double harvest of word-of-mouth and box office, and finally won 1.333 billion box office results. This also allows Hengye to accelerate the layout of remakes of excellent overseas word-of-mouth suspense crime films. "Manslaughter 2" has now been completed and is expected to meet the audience in this year's New Year slot. Compared with the "Manslaughter" series of 1 billion + magnitude, the box office target of the moderately considerate "Door Lock" may be around 200-300 million, and if the word of mouth can be suppressed on the "Railway Hero" in the same period, there may be a higher box office performance.
"Railway Hero" Huayi & China Film
Cumulative forecast: 280 million → 260 million
As the former No. 3 box office seed of the National Day file, although the reshuffle of "Railway Hero" has a strong cast, the heat performance has been tepid, and the final box office performance is more difficult to figure out.
Member of the Box Office OfFilm Prediction Experts
Sedum I: A professional movie box office bar bar owner, senior box office enthusiasts
Sushi Snail: A professional movie box office bar owner, senior box office enthusiast
Colin: Chief Data Analyst at a line production company
Cola Lee: Chief analyst of a first-line film data company
52: Planned by a certain line of film publicity and distribution companies, senior box office enthusiasts
Author: Tanks