Steel: Raw material prices weakened, steel prices fluctuated at a high level
【Spot and basis】
Tangshan billet remained stable to 3970 yuan per ton. East China thread stability to 4320 yuan per ton, the main basis 71 yuan per ton; Hot rolled -10 to 4360 yuan per ton, basis 19 yuan per ton.
【Profit】
Profit improved month-on-month, with Fubao Jiangsu thread converter and electric furnace profit of 72 and 66 yuan respectively. Electric furnace profits turned positive.
【Supply】
Production increased month-on-month and steel mills resumed. This week's molten iron production was +03,000 mt month-on-month to 2.344 million mt. The output of the five major varieties was +150,000 tons month-on-month to 9.47 million tons. Among them, thread production is +130,000 tons to 2.95 million tons. Hot rolled +12,000 tonnes to 3,084,000 tonnes. Molten iron production growth slowed this week
【Demand】
After the holiday, the construction industry started low year-on-year, the demand for building materials was low, the manufacturing industry recovered better, and the demand for plates was better than that of long products, but the market expectation was near weak and far strong, and it was still in the demand verification period. Yesterday's volume was -50,000 to 150,000 tonnes month-on-month.
【Stock】
Inventory shifts from seasonal accumulation to seasonal destocking. The stocks of the five major varieties were -356,000 tons month-on-month to 23.2 million tons, and the lunar calendar was -1.3% year-on-year. Among them, the thread was -144,000 tons month-on-month, and the lunar calendar decreased by 3.5% year-on-year; Hot rolling was -130,000 tons month-on-month, and the lunar calendar increased by 8.7% year-on-year. Hot rolled inventories are worse year-on-year than threads, but hot coils are destocked earlier than threads.
【Viewpoint】
Bifocal prices weakened, iron ore prices faced policy risks, and short-term costs weakened the drive for steel. The supply and demand of steel doubled, but the supply increment was larger than the demand increment, the steel mill had a positive profit, and the expected flat water, considering the profit turning positive or affecting the release of blast furnace output, the price is expected to maintain a high volatility trend.
Iron ore: macro is less than expected, market sentiment is weak, but the fundamentals of supply and demand increase have not changed
【In stock】
Qingdao port PB powder +2 yuan/ton to 918 yuan/ton, super special powder 798 yuan/ton.
【Basis】
At present, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipt and the cost of super special powder warehouse receipt in the port are 992.6 yuan / ton and 990.4 yuan / ton respectively. The basis and basis ratio of super special powder night disk were 78.9 yuan/ton and 7.97%.
【Demand】
On the demand side, the average daily output of molten iron was 0.26 million tons to 2.3436 million tons. In the fifth week after the holiday, steel mills replenished their warehouses slightly, with an average daily port evacuation volume of +0.8% month-on-month, imported mine inventories +1.27% month-on-month, and a warehouse-to-consumption ratio of +0.43%. crude steel output in December was 77.89 million tons, up 3.346 million tons (+4%) month-on-month and down 8.303 million tons (-10%) year-on-year; The annual crude steel output was 1.013 billion tons, down 19.788 million tons (-1.9%) year-on-year. Pig iron production in December was 69 million tons, up 1.014 million tons (1.5%) month-on-month and down 3.095 million tons (-4.3%) year-on-year; Annual pig iron production was 864 million tons, down 4.738 million tons (-0.5%) year-on-year.
【Supply】
The loose pattern of iron ore supply has not changed. From the perspective of mainstream mines, the four major mines have successively released quarterly production and sales reports, except for Vale, the quarterly output of the other three major mines has increased month-on-month. In terms of annual (calendar year) production, Vale's annual production (including pellets) decreased by 5.206 million tonnes (-1.5%) to 340 million tonnes, Rio Tinto (including pellets and concentrate) rose by 5.42 million tonnes (+1.6%) to 342 million tonnes, BHP Billiton increased by 779,000 tonnes (+0.3%) to 285 million tonnes, and FMG decreased by 10.9 million tonnes (-4.6%) to 226 million tonnes. In terms of non-mainstream mines, Australian Mineral Resources Ltd, Mount Gibson Iron Ltd and Canadian mining company Champion Iron (Champion Iron) production increased by 13%, 9.8% and 3.6% respectively in the fourth quarter. Total iron ore imports in December were 90.859 million tons, down 7.991 million tons month-on-month and up 4.789 million tons year-on-year; cumulative imports in December were 110,700 tons, down 17.456 million tons year-on-year.
【Stock】
Port inventories were 140.0056 million tons, -740,100 tonnes from Tuesday and -2.227 million tonnes from last Thursday; steel mill import mine inventories +115.84 m/m.
【Viewpoint】
The macro was less than expected, and the market sentiment weakened, but the fundamentals of supply and demand have not changed. Fundamentally, supply has fallen seasonally, demand has been affected by environmental protection and production restrictions in the short term, and steel mill inventory levels are low. From the perspective of supply, the number of arrivals this week increased month-on-month, and the average value was close to the level of the same period last year; Australia-Pakistan shipments increased month-on-month, with an average value higher than the same period last year. The daily average molten iron on the demand side rose slightly, in line with the expectation of steel mills to resume production. In the fifth week after the holiday, steel mills replenished their warehouses slightly, with an average daily port evacuation volume of +0.8% month-on-month, imported mine inventories +1.27% month-on-month, and a warehouse-to-consumption ratio of +0.43%. Under the pattern of supply and demand increase, the low inventory level of steel mills has a supporting effect on mine prices, steel mills are slightly replenished, and port inventories are restocked slightly, which is basically good; The main risk is that weaker-than-expected demand will affect the decline in ferrous metals. Operationally, 5-9 positive set holding.
Coke: Short positions can continue to be held, pay attention to today's thread table demand
【Cash】
As of March 8, the closing price of the main contract was 2,894 yuan, down 18 yuan from the previous month, Fenwei CCI Lüliang quasi-primary metallurgical coke reported 2460 yuan, unchanged from the previous month, CCI Rizhao quasi-primary metallurgical coke reported 2730 yuan, unchanged from the previous month, Rizhao port warehouse receipt 2993 yuan, futures discount 99 yuan. Cost support superimposed on the impact of environmental protection and production restrictions, coke enterprises have no inventory pressure, sales are to rise, the arrival of steel mills is acceptable, and the steel coke game continues.
【Profit】
As of March 2, steel union data shows that the national average profit per ton of coke is 10 yuan / ton, the profit is down 13 yuan week-on-week, the average profit of Shanxi quasi-primary coke is 27 yuan / ton, the average profit of Shandong quasi-primary coke is 22 yuan / ton, the average profit of Inner Mongolia secondary coke is 76 yuan / ton, and the average profit of Hebei quasi-primary coke is 35 yuan / ton. The profits of coking enterprises fell, but the price of coal blending weakened again, which was still good for the profits of coking enterprises.
【Supply】
By March 2, the average daily output of coke of 247 steel mills was 474,000 tons, an increase of 01,000 tons, and the average daily output of coke of full-sample independent coking plants was 669,000 tons, an increase of 01,000 tons. Some areas have recently been affected by environmental protection inspections, and the start of construction may fall back in the future, and the Inner Mongolia region may reduce production due to the intensification of losses and insufficient willingness to start construction.
【Demand】
As of March 2, the daily average of 247 steel mills was 2.3436 million tons, an increase of 0.26 tons from the previous month, and the pace of resumption of steel mills before the two sessions slowed down, and it is expected that there is still some room for repair after the two sessions.
【Stock】
As of March 2, the coke inventory of the whole sample coking plant was 1.094 million tons, a decrease of 77,800 tons from the previous week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.724 million tons, an increase of 118,000 tons from the previous week, and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills were 12.9 days, an increase of 0.08 days from last week. The enthusiasm of downstream steel mills to take goods has increased, coke enterprises have shipped smoothly, and most coke enterprises have maintained low inventory operation.
【Viewpoint】
Coking enterprises have the willingness to sell, but the downstream steel mills arrive better, the willingness to accept the increase is low, the steel coke plant is still in the third round of the game to raise the rise, it is expected that there is still some room for repair after the two sessions. The strict safety supervision in Inner Mongolia has made the coal consumption of local coking enterprises tight, and the start of construction may fall, which is affected by environmental protection, and the production of coking enterprises in Shanxi and Hebei is restricted. At present, the economic recovery has entered the actual verification stage, and the coke drive still needs to see the trend of molten iron. Considering the digestion of early bullish factors and the impact of overseas bearishness, short positions in the early stage can continue to be held, paying attention to today's thread table demand.
Coking coal: short positions can continue to be held, pay attention to today's thread table demand
【Cash】
As of March 8, the closing price of the main contract was 1984 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous month, the main coking coal (jiexu) Shaheyi was reported at 2135 yuan, unchanged from the previous month, and the futures discount was 151 yuan. Fenwei main coking coal (Meng3) Shaheyi reported 2025 yuan, unchanged from the previous month, main coking coal (Meng5) Shaheyi reported 2183 yuan, down 25 yuan from the previous month, and futures discount (Meng3) 41 yuan. The market wait-and-see mood is strong, the phenomenon of online auctions and auctions has increased, downstream raw coal is more cautiously purchased, and some coal mine inventories have accumulated slightly.
【Supply】
Affected by the open-pit mine accident in Inner Mongolia, the safety situation in the region was grim, affecting the decline in the operation of some local coal mines, the supply of coking coal in the region was reduced, and the raw coal output of the Fenwei statistical sample decreased by 14,300 tons week-on-week to 9,191,700 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.14% to 91.29% week-on-week. According to the current situation, the production capacity of the open-pit mine suspended in Inner Mongolia is about 70 million tons, excluding about 15 million tons of Changxie coal, the amount affected by each month is less than 4.6 million tons, converted into about 2.3 million tons of refined coal, and the remaining coal mines have no obvious production reduction and shutdown, if you take into account the marginal relaxation impact of safety supervision after the two sessions, the actual impact may be less than 2 million tons.
【Demand】
As of March 2, the average daily output of coke of 247 steel mills was 474,000 tons, an increase of 01,000 tons from the previous month, and the average daily output of coke of the full-sample independent coking plant was 669,000 tons, an increase of 01,000 tons from the previous month. Some areas have recently been affected by environmental protection inspections, and the start of construction may fall back in the future, and there is a possibility of production reduction in this Inner Mongolia area due to the aggravation of losses and insufficient willingness to start construction.
【Stock】
As of March 2, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises in the whole sample was 9.802 million tons, an increase of 107,000 tons from the previous month, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.346 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons. Downstream demand has improved, and downstream demand for raw coal is still rigid, affected by coal mine accidents, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm has increased.
【Viewpoint】
Affected by the open-pit mine accident in Inner Mongolia, the safety situation in the region is grim, affecting the decline in the operation of some local coal mines, and the supply of coking coal in the region has decreased, but the overall supply reduction is limited. The Pomponta coal mine accident is expected to stop production for about half a month, with limited impact. The downstream coking plant started steadily, but under the influence of environmental protection and profits, the start of the market may fall, and the coke increase has not yet landed, and the acceptance of high-priced coal is low. Short positions in the early stage can continue to be held, pay attention to the thread table demand and the recovery of molten iron in the future market.
Thermal coal: sales at production areas are weak, and ports stabilize and recover
【In stock】
Coal prices in production areas continued to weaken, and the price of 5,500 kcal in Inner Mongolia was 900 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan from the previous month; The quotation of 5500 kcal in Shanxi was 880 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous month; The quotation of Shaanxi 5500 kcal was 850 yuan / ton, down 11 yuan from the previous month. Port 5500 quoted 1150-1200 yuan, and the quotation increased by 50 yuan month-on-month. After the rise in port coal prices, downstream purchasing intentions fell again.
【Supply】
As of March 5, the energy utilization rate of 100 coal mines in the "Sanxi" region decreased by 1.01 percentage points from the previous period, of which the capacity utilization rate in Shanxi remained stable from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate in Shaanxi decreased by 0.66 percentage points from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate in Inner Mongolia decreased by 1.79 percentage points from the previous period. Total inventory decreased by 1.95 percentage points from the previous period. The profit of coal generation decreased by 0.73 percentage points from the previous period. Although some coal mines in the main producing areas have carried out safety hazard investigations, a small number of open-pit coal mines have stopped production and reduced production, and most coal mines have normal production.
【Demand】
As of March 5, the six major power plants were 809,000 tons, down 18,100 tons week-on-week, power plant inventories were 11.869 million tons, down 123,000 tons week-on-week, and the number of available days increased by 0.2 days week-on-week. As of March 2, the coal inventory of the six ports in Jiangnai was 4.995 million tons, an increase of 161,000 tons on a weekly basis, and by March 6, the coal inventory of Guangzhou Port was 2.07 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 165,000 tons.
【Viewpoint】
Safety supervision has an impact on some coal mines, but the impact on the overall supply is small, and downstream resistance to high-priced coal has strengthened. Since March, the impact of cold air has weakened significantly, the temperature in most parts of the mainland will begin to rise, the daily consumption of power plants is about to touch a seasonal high, coal demand has entered the off-season, the demand for replenishment may decrease, and the future market will mainly focus on non-electricity demand. Short-term coal prices are expected to remain weak.
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