Recently, a number of NPC deputies once again proposed on the proposal of the two sessions to stabilize the mass consumption of new energy vehicles and smart home appliances, release consumption potential, and stimulate economic development. It can be found that many local governments and consumers have been limited from the past automobile mass consumption to the new energy vehicle market.
In recent years, new energy vehicles have undoubtedly been the biggest highlight of China's automotive industry, with rapid sales growth and industry-leading quality, which has formed a consensus in China's global market. However, it cannot be ignored that as of January this year, the number of new energy vehicles in China was about 13 million, which is far less than traditional fuel vehicles, and traditional fuel vehicles will still occupy the mainstream position in the market for a long time to come.
Not only that, at present, among the types of fuel vehicles, traditional passenger cars account for 77.6%; In the national development policy plan, China is expected to achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions by 2030, which is still seven years away. And from the perspective of the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles, only first- and second-tier cities in the country have reached about 30%...
In these data related to the automotive industry, it can be seen that Chinese automobiles are transforming into new energy vehicles, but from a deeper perspective, it can be interpreted that traditional fuel vehicles are still the protagonists of the automotive industry and will continue to dominate the entire market for at least the next three to five years.
The development of new energy vehicles is accelerating, and by 2022, China's vehicle sales will reach 26.864 million units, of which 6.887 million new energy vehicles will be sold, with a market share of 25.6%. However, objectively speaking, the growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed down, and traditional fuel vehicles still have great opportunities for development.
The automotive market is constantly changing, and relevant policies and regulations are also emerging. At present, more and more countries have joined the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, and Hainan Province also plans to completely ban the sale of gasoline/diesel vehicles in 2030. However, from the perspective of China's development, the withdrawal schedule of traditional fuel vehicles is still in the research stage, and the specific withdrawal time has not yet been determined. Therefore, in the next few years, traditional fuel vehicles will not lose rapidly in the Chinese market.
The data shows that the sales of fuel vehicles have entered a decline channel since 2019, and have decreased by about one million units every year. Especially reflected in the domestic automobile sales market, the sales of fuel vehicles in 2022 will only be 14.88 million units, a decrease of more than 2 million units compared with 2021. In this regard, the relevant analysis believes that this is caused by a variety of reasons.
Especially in the past two years, the background of high fluctuations in oil prices and increasingly stringent environmental protection measures has limited the expansion of this market segment, while the technology of fuel vehicles in fuel saving has basically come to an end, and the consumption of fuel vehicles is not optimistic.
At the same time, some experts have a positive attitude towards the development of fuel vehicles, pointing out that at least in the next 5 years, traditional car companies will have obvious changes in production capacity and brand. Although the road is difficult to take at this time, if you find the right market, traditional fuel vehicles will still maintain a stable development trend in the initial stage.
The biggest challenge faced by traditional fuel vehicles is the change in the market, and consumers' demand for traditional fuel vehicles is gradually decreasing, which brings great challenges to the increase in sales of fuel vehicles. However, from the current development report of new energy vehicles, the market segments it mainly occupies are concentrated in A00 mini vehicles and A0-class models, which is also the fastest growing area of the new energy vehicle segment in 2022. In contrast, the electrification of new energy vehicles in other large vehicles remained stable last year.
Compared with small cars, the future opportunities of fuel vehicles in market development are more concentrated in models other than A00, A0 and A. In this regard, some market experts have expressed recognition, believing that one of the future development prospects of fuel vehicles is in large cars or sports models that focus on user experience, and users of such products are more inclined to come from the control of traditional fuel vehicles than economy and comfort.
On the one hand, the positioning change in terms of products, on the other hand, in the sales market, new energy vehicles began to accelerate the penetration from the original first-tier cities to the second- and third-tier cities, but now the automobile consumption in these medium and large markets is mainly based on additional purchases and exchanges, and most of them target new energy vehicles.
Compared with small cities below the third tier, users have not fully accepted new energy vehicles. As the main area of future automobile increment, due to the general imperfection of charging facilities, the promotion resistance of pure electric models is relatively large, and the climate environment of most cities is not suitable for the use of new energy vehicles, which leaves a large part of the market opportunity for traditional fuel vehicles.
A market report of China's fuel vehicle industry shows that the current consumption structure of traditional fuel vehicles in China has undergone great changes, and the small car market has gradually disappeared under the strong impetus of pure electric vehicles; In the mid-size sedan market, the joint venture fuel vehicle still maintains a large advantage, and the market share is relatively leading. It's just that the scale of other products has shrunk, and mainstream star models and personalized products have continued to rise.
For example, traditional B-class cars such as Magotan , Passat, Camry and Accord have shown good sales data in 2022. In addition, although the overall sales of Xuanyi, which has good space, economy, and reliability, has declined, it still won the top spot in the fuel vehicle market in 2022.
In contrast, traditional luxury models of CNY 300,000 to CNY 500,000 have been suppressed by the products of some emerging automakers, and have remained largely stable for a short period of time. In the future, with the rise of the luxury new energy vehicle sector, the share of traditional fuel luxury vehicles will gradually shrink, and eventually in the entire traditional fuel vehicle market, only high-value models with comprehensive leading price, experience and intelligence will remain.
Therefore, whether in the consumer market or in the product pattern, traditional fuel vehicles have a market that can be tapped in the future, rather than the current state of nowhere to go.
From another point of view, the current transformation of automobile brands to electrification, high efficiency is mostly concentrated in independent brands, its total sales basically accounted for more than 80% of the total number of new energy passenger vehicles in the month, while the overall transformation of joint venture brands is relatively slow, sales can only continue to decline.
In the past 2022, although the proportion of Chinese brand sales has touched the 50% marking, it has not yet become the norm. Therefore, even if the technological advantages and star product effects of joint venture car companies in the fuel era no longer have absolute influence, and their new energy technology strength has not yet been shaped, the overall market share remains stable.
By 2023, how to maintain the market development of traditional fuel vehicles will still be a problem that most joint venture car companies need to face. For automobile manufacturers, their focus is on the technological transition between traditional vehicles and new energy vehicles, and from the perspective of dealers, they are directly oriented to consumers in the market and better understand the real needs of consumers for automotive products.
In a joint venture brand car dealership store in a coastal city in Shandong, Manager Li told the car prophet that there are not a few people who enter the store to see cars on holidays, up to hundreds at most, of which more than 70% of the car users buy fuel vehicles. Of course, compared with the demand for fuel vehicles in the past few years, everyone is now more inclined to personalized experience models.
In this way, the popularity of fuel vehicles in most cities has not weakened, but many joint venture brand models are single, and the pace of iterative updating is slow, resulting in a decline in brand competitiveness. On the other hand, the continuous influx of new energy vehicle brands and new products in the market has led to an intensification of competition in the entire market.
The development of traditional fuel vehicles is facing a bottleneck period, which is an inevitable problem, but from the current point of view, the main reason for restricting the development of traditional vehicles is by no means the downward pressure of the new energy vehicle market, but more the product development model of car companies needs to be innovated.